# Subaru (7270.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7270.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:17.628Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,604.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 6,137.90 per share, central JPY 6,810.91 per share, high JPY 7,706.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,810.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:17.628Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 33.8% at the stated quote. About 33.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.52×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 47.0%

- FY2018: 39.7%

- FY2019: 18.8%

- FY2020: 18.1%

- FY2021: 8.0%

- FY2022: 5.9%

- FY2023: 17.1%

- FY2024: 22.3%

- FY2025: 17.2%

- FY2026: 1.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.09×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.18T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.08T

- Return on incremental invested capital: -169.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.96×

- FY2023: 1.27×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 1.04×

- FY2026: 0.72×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 39.7% vs 17.2%

- Per-share earnings: 365.77 to 458.03 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY -1.35T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 894B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 92.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 365.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 458.03

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 13B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.74T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 39.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 365.77

- FY2018: JPY 0

- FY2019: JPY 184.44

- FY2020: JPY 198.99

- FY2021: JPY 99.77

- FY2022: JPY 91.28

- FY2023: JPY 261.33

- FY2024: JPY 509.20

- FY2025: JPY 458.03

- FY2026: JPY 125.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.94×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -3.4%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: -6.2%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -7.7%

- FY2024: -7.9%

- FY2025: -3.0%

- FY2026: -4.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 26% since Apr 2024 · sales +2.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.609Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 17.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 3.33T 

- FY2018: JPY 0 

- FY2019: JPY 3.16T 

- FY2020: JPY 3.34T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.83T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.74T 

- FY2023: JPY 3.77T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.70T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.69T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.78T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 28.3% 

- FY2019: 18.9% 

- FY2020: 18.4% 

- FY2021: 17.4% 

- FY2022: 18.4% 

- FY2023: 19.5% 

- FY2024: 21.1% 

- FY2025: 20.9% 

- FY2026: 15.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 4.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 4784965000000; grossProfit 719487000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15% to 21.1% during 2024–26; it earns 17.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.470308089201242],[2018,0.3971219726741312],[2019,0.18825070566379432],[2020,0.18098738314793866],[2021,0.0798779954505612],[2022,0.05923664177848418],[2023,0.17058418421936522],[2024,0.22312790497270485],[2025,0.17234758936550848],[2026,0.019118299885267212]]; median 0.17666748625672357. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 17564656618.05652; upkeep 146209343381.94348; owner earnings 221797656618.05652. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0791922551657229.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 130621000000; owner earnings 152133000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 131690000000; owner earnings 172409000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 124725000000; owner earnings 117677000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 101251000000; owner earnings 137186000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 134997000000; owner earnings 254987000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 188147000000; owner earnings 371998000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 170861000000; owner earnings 351813000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 234366000000; owner earnings 65005000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,111435000000],[2018,110326000000],[2019,110384000000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); 主に円高局面では当社グループの売上収益と財務状況はマイナスに作用し、円安局面ではプラスに作用する可能性があります。 ＜対応策＞為替リスクを最小限にすべく、主要販売市場である日米で生産を行っています。また日本において発生する現地通貨建ての売上収益について状況に応じて為替予約などによるヘッジを実施しています。 ③金融市場の変動 ＜リスク＞当社グループは主として日本国内で日本円建ての資金調達を行っており、国内金利の上昇局面においては、資金調達コストの増加を通じて業績にマイナスの影響を及ぼす可能性があります。また、予期せぬ金融環境の混乱により必要とする金額の調達が困難となった場合、当社グループの財政状態や成長戦略の実行にマイナスの影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 ＜対応策＞複数の金融機関や手法による長期固定金利を主とした資金調達、返済期日の分散、十分なコミットメントライン契約の締結、また一定額の現金および現金同等物残高の確保を行い、金利上昇と流動性リスクを低減する取り組みを行っています。 ④原材料価格の変動 ＜リスク＞当社グループは、原材料を多数のお取引先様から調達していますが、特定の原材料およびお取引先様に依存している場合があります。このため、地政学リスク、需給逼迫、環境規制等に起因する原材料価格、物流費、エネルギー価格の高騰や人件費の上昇等によるコスト増加の可能性があります。また、米国の関税政策により、米国生産拠点において現地生産車向けに一部の国から輸入する部品の調達コストが増加する影響があります。加えて、地政学リスクにおいては中東情勢の悪化等を背景とした原油価格の高騰をはじめとするエネルギー価格や原材料価格の上昇により、

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 17.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.25340450089510347. Price 2604; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 559.54 → FY2026 89.80567909116928. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,645.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 4,772.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,540.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 4,207.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 4,083.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 4,212.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,745.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,786.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,994.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,856.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,060.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,888.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,669.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,583.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,618.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,780.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,487.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,679.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,330.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,225.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,254.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,301.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,480.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,053.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,523.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,360.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,552.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,826.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,522.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,720.50 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,522.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,619.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,544.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,846.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,040.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,123.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,866.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,713.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,760.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,619.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,073.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,175.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,378.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,241.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,994.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,202.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,032.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,905.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,073.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,062.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,006.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,988.50 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,204.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,027.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,130.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,191.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,141.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,036.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,078.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,228.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,142.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,057.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,089.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,893.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,948.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,959.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,227.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,411.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,317.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,535.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,167.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,315.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,351.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,027.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,131.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,187.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,114.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,195.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,399.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,703.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,686.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,809.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,906.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,559.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,621.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,586.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,991.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,404.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,458.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,532.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,500.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,410.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,986.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,760.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,482.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,781.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,406.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,821.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,720.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,753.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,645.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,592.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,679.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,515.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,779.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,933.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,030.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,283.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,509.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,395.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,327.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,966.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,483.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,349.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,442.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,390.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,715.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,668.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,550.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,584.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2023: low JPY 4,452.73 per share, central JPY 5,754.59 per share, high JPY 6,548.50 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 5,533.20 per share, central JPY 7,238.52 per share, high JPY 8,275.90 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 6,607.99 per share, central JPY 8,435.24 per share, high JPY 9,680.84 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 6,137.90 per share, central JPY 6,810.91 per share, high JPY 7,706.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:17.628Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFKZ.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.