# Ryohin Keikaku (7453.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7453.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:21.405Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,804.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,001.53 per share, central JPY 1,108.90 per share, high JPY 1,251.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,108.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:21.405Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.3% at the stated quote. About 4.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.00×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 47.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 50.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 21.5%

- FY2017: 18.7%

- FY2018: 22.2%

- FY2019: 21.9%

- FY2020: 0.4%

- FY2021: 19.5%

- FY2022: 13.0%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 15.1%

- FY2025: 19.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.70×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 121B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 173B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 24.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.76×

- FY2022: 0.68×

- FY2023: 0.50×

- FY2024: 0.71×

- FY2025: 0.75×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.5% vs 15.1%

- Per-share earnings: 57.35 to 78.55 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.07T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 160B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 21.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 57.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 78.55

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 265B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 40.92

- FY2017: JPY 57.35

- FY2018: JPY 64.46

- FY2019: JPY 44.24

- FY2020: JPY -32.16

- FY2021: JPY 64.45

- FY2022: JPY 46.62

- FY2023: JPY 41.75

- FY2024: JPY 78.55

- FY2025: JPY 95.92

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.2%

- FY2017: -7.1%

- FY2018: 3.9%

- FY2019: -0.5%

- FY2020: -4.4%

- FY2021: -7.0%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.9% a year for ten years · sales +18.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.619Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +18.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X5NI.pdf; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2016: JPY 308B 

- FY2017: JPY 380B 

- FY2018: JPY 410B 

- FY2019: JPY 439B 

- FY2020: JPY 179B 

- FY2021: JPY 454B 

- FY2022: JPY 496B 

- FY2023: JPY 581B 

- FY2024: JPY 662B 

- FY2025: JPY 785B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 51.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X5NI.pdf; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2016: 48.8% 

- FY2017: 43.5% 

- FY2018: 46.6% 

- FY2019: 48.0% 

- FY2020: 46.4% 

- FY2021: 48.7% 

- FY2022: 47.2% 

- FY2023: 46.7% 

- FY2024: 50.8% 

- FY2025: 51.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 784.6 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X5NI.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: revenue 784629000000; grossProfit 402975000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.7% to 51.4% during 2023–25; it earns 18.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/7453.T (filed 2025-11-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 46.7%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/7453.T (filed 2025-11-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 50.8%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/7453.T (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.21546128302613216],[2017,0.18707055817922288],[2018,0.22167885077744034],[2019,0.21904925095466563],[2020,0.004256707490391388],[2021,0.19516409971793644],[2022,0.13031791708439122],[2023,0.11161609335963033],[2024,0.15109115991108282],[2025,0.1906194900998518]]; median 0.18884502413953735. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 35.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 24.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 9751000000; owner earnings 17556000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2017: growth capex 4909000000; upkeep 6129000000; owner earnings 30113000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16301929399262777.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2018: growth capex 3265659872.0052395; upkeep 9354340127.99476; owner earnings 31362659872.00524. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10412573057683204.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2019: growth capex 3120795586.416027; upkeep 15372204413.583973; owner earnings 15769795586.416027. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1978970221468346.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2021: growth capex 1778000000; upkeep 15561000000; owner earnings 25614000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06941516358241587.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 15883000000; owner earnings 16678000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2023: growth capex 3763000000; upkeep 19535000000; owner earnings 11119000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3384297149024193.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2024: growth capex 12280000000; upkeep 22306000000; owner earnings 29708000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41335667160360845.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X5NI.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: growth capex 13496000000; upkeep 24830000000; owner earnings 37978000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3553636315761757.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Incremental return on capital 0.24068031467730028, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Dividend observations: [[2016,5717000000],[2017,7261000000],[2018,8385000000],[2019,9854000000],[2020,4796000000],[2021,6589000000],[2022,11029000000],[2023,11040000000],[2024,11045000000],[2025,11634000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3066272462318963. Price 4804; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,121.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,145.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,057.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,187.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,219.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,257.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,441.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,403.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,410.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,525.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,657.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,752.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,755.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,822.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,832.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,785.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,877.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,850.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,950.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,792.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,650.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,490.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,527.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,327.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,285.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,321.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,402.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,057.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 983.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 973.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 971.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 915.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,009.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,212.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,246.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,278.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 921.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 739.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 607.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 646.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 814.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 762.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 633.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 830.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 870.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,091.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,073.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,052.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,250.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,199.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,309.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,039.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,165.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,109.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,179.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,119.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 917.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 877.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 818.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 844.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 715.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 584.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 685.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 691.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 663.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 650.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 604.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 700.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 724.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 783.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 717.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 685.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 752.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 713.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 684.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 711.25 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 922.25 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 939.25 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 967.75 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,060.75 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,168.25 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,179.75 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,151.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,182.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,235.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,277.75 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,291.25 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,337.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,420.75 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,370.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,317.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,256.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,535.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,799.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,061.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,976.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,030.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,425.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,770.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,462.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,585.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,188.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,945.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,169.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,099.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,782.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,081.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,597.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,334.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,617.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,883.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,539.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,177.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 4,328.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,192.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,410.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 381.46 per share, central JPY 410.80 per share, high JPY 449.85 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 773.04 per share, central JPY 846.42 per share, high JPY 944.11 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 522.39 per share, central JPY 573.42 per share, high JPY 641.34 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 600.20 per share, central JPY 655.96 per share, high JPY 730.19 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 671.04 per share, central JPY 734.39 per share, high JPY 818.71 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 951.33 per share, central JPY 1,051.48 per share, high JPY 1,184.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X5NI.pdf); period 2025-08-31, filed 2025-11-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.