# Itochu (8001.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8001.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:37.136Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,221.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,308.44 per share, central JPY 1,483.01 per share, high JPY 1,715.41 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,483.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:37.136Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.7%

- FY2018: 9.5%

- FY2019: 11.9%

- FY2020: 12.5%

- FY2021: 8.5%

- FY2022: 14.7%

- FY2023: 13.1%

- FY2024: 11.9%

- FY2025: 10.8%

- FY2026: 9.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 3.98T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 4.20T

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 0.96×

- FY2026: 0.91×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.5% vs 10.8%

- Per-share earnings: 44.73 to 123.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 11.40T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 4.25T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 13.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY 78.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 44.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 123.13

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 1.50T

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 6.36T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 44.73

- FY2018: JPY 51.59

- FY2019: JPY 64.81

- FY2020: JPY 67.12

- FY2021: JPY 53.97

- FY2022: JPY 110.57

- FY2023: JPY 109.22

- FY2024: JPY 110.60

- FY2025: JPY 123.13

- FY2026: JPY 128.00

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.26×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.5%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: -1.0%

- FY2024: -1.2%

- FY2025: -0.8%

- FY2026: -1.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.684Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: JPY 4.84T 

- FY2018: JPY 5.51T 

- FY2019: JPY 11.60T 

- FY2020: JPY 10.98T 

- FY2021: JPY 10.36T 

- FY2022: JPY 12.29T 

- FY2023: JPY 13.95T 

- FY2024: JPY 14.03T 

- FY2025: JPY 14.72T 

- FY2026: JPY 14.82T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 16.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: 22.6% 

- FY2018: 22.0% 

- FY2019: 13.5% 

- FY2020: 16.4% 

- FY2021: 17.2% 

- FY2022: 15.8% 

- FY2023: 15.3% 

- FY2024: 15.9% 

- FY2025: 16.1% 

- FY2026: 16.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are JPY 14.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: revenue 14823087000000; grossProfit 2480532000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.9% to 16.7% during 2024–26; it earns 11.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04741392018217874],[2018,0.09513791060792019],[2019,0.11869085819385437],[2020,0.12457001228537312],[2021,0.08534907311886117],[2022,0.14713298597989913],[2023,0.13062228254080122],[2024,0.11924893887111064],[2025,0.10798000380145577],[2026,0.09877389949307026]]; median 0.11333543099765507. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 16% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.17184318495269732],[2022,0.15757830983064988],[2023,0.1527290299407707]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 12.6% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IOC.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 89317000000; owner earnings 358673000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 107829000000; owner earnings 406149939009.07996. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 113572000000; owner earnings 538470691003.48364. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 199527000000; owner earnings 461790635318.8164. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 165022000000; owner earnings 384845137927.7495. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 157142000000; owner earnings 801668199169.9404. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 194081000000; cash acquisitions 294890000000; owner earnings 757502100827.413. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3892926497205674.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 202546000000; cash acquisitions 59106000000; owner earnings 766987000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0770625838508345.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 227465000000; cash acquisitions 240059000000; owner earnings 842473000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.28494563030506614.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 284991000000; cash acquisitions 102658000000; owner earnings 814761000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12599768521075505.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Dividend observations: [[2017,83037000000],[2018,92845000000],[2019,116437000000],[2020,133537000000],[2021,129008000000],[2022,135356000000],[2023,188372000000],[2024,225458000000],[2025,258614000000],[2026,282692000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: cash repurchases 170278000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"③ 商品価格リスク" (8001 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); ③ 商品価格リスク

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07418759031327896. Price 2221; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 32.24500133124771 → FY2026 115.84069453716221. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 312.40 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 310.40 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 311.20 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 325.30 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 316.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 315.20 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 314.60 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 333.80 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 346.10 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 359.20 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 368.60 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 395.60 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 389.20 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 420.60 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 427.80 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 413.20 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 413.30 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 438.80 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 409.20 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 401.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 396.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 388.70 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 416.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 419.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 403.20 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 373.40 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 398.30 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 399.60 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 400.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 400.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 399.80 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 412.10 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 416.40 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 423.70 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 446.20 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 454.20 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 477.60 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 506.90 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 513.60 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 492.30 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 448.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 425.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 462.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 464.30 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 460.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 544.70 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 537.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 500.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 551.70 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 592.80 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 599.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 633.60 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 717.40 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 681.60 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 649.80 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 640.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 646.40 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 662.20 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 655.40 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 648.40 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 652.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 703.60 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 733.40 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 748.60 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 828.80 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 786.40 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 739.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 733.40 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 773.20 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 768.60 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 700.20 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 769.80 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 857.40 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 829.20 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 836.60 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 813.80 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 860.20 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 898.40 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 944.20 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,137.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,094.40 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,081.20 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,074.60 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,147.60 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,153.40 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,350.40 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,303.20 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,294.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,427.20 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,482.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,570.80 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,556.60 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,541.20 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,535.60 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,530.60 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,476.80 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,566.40 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,436.60 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,333.80 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,380.20 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,456.40 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,511.20 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,586.60 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,679.40 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,685.20 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,786.20 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,872.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,975.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,971.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,974.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,935.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,854.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,014.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,108.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,207.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,213.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 452.45 per share, central JPY 509.52 per share, high JPY 585.51 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 885.46 per share, central JPY 1,001.98 per share, high JPY 1,157.09 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 852.32 per share, central JPY 963.36 per share, high JPY 1,111.18 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 748.01 per share, central JPY 845.47 per share, high JPY 975.19 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 886.77 per share, central JPY 1,002.69 per share, high JPY 1,157.01 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,242.99 per share, central JPY 1,757.52 per share, high JPY 2,057.13 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,193.16 per share, central JPY 1,351.59 per share, high JPY 1,562.49 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,266.38 per share, central JPY 1,436.07 per share, high JPY 1,661.96 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,308.44 per share, central JPY 1,483.01 per share, high JPY 1,715.41 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YA6H.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.