# Mitsui & Co. (8031.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8031.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:37.946Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,907.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,206.69 per share, central JPY 4,752.87 per share, high JPY 5,479.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,752.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:37.946Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.8% at the stated quote. About 9.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 9.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.8%

- FY2018: 7.1%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: 6.3%

- FY2021: 11.3%

- FY2022: 22.1%

- FY2023: 25.6%

- FY2024: 18.9%

- FY2025: 17.2%

- FY2026: 13.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 3.83T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 4.84T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 92.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.06×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 0.90×

- FY2026: -0.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 17.2%

- Per-share earnings: 85.60 to 306.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Market cap gain: JPY 14.19T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 3.59T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 17.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 221.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 85.60

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 306.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 667B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 6.71T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 17.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 85.60

- FY2018: JPY 118.84

- FY2019: JPY 119.17

- FY2020: JPY 113.06

- FY2021: JPY 99.64

- FY2022: JPY 280.81

- FY2023: JPY 360.91

- FY2024: JPY 352.80

- FY2025: JPY 306.73

- FY2026: JPY 291.12

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.14×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: -3.5%

- FY2022: 0.7%

- FY2023: 0.5%

- FY2024: 1.2%

- FY2025: -0.7%

- FY2026: -0.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.3% a year for ten years · sales -4.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.695Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: JPY 4.36T 

- FY2018: JPY 4.89T 

- FY2019: JPY 8.96T 

- FY2020: JPY 8.48T 

- FY2021: JPY 8.01T 

- FY2022: JPY 11.76T 

- FY2023: JPY 14.31T 

- FY2024: JPY 13.32T 

- FY2025: JPY 14.66T 

- FY2026: JPY 14.00T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 9.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: 16.5% 

- FY2018: 16.2% 

- FY2019: 9.4% 

- FY2020: 9.9% 

- FY2021: 10.1% 

- FY2022: 9.7% 

- FY2023: 9.8% 

- FY2024: 9.9% 

- FY2025: 8.8% 

- FY2026: 9.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are JPY 14 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: revenue 13995222000000; grossProfit 1328153000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.8% to 9.9% during 2024–26; it earns 12.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.8%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.018334070433665542],[2018,0.07079861649371497],[2019,0.06251110792146541],[2020,0.06292724957724362],[2021,0.11303977574799319],[2022,0.22149274277129116],[2023,0.2555036462707356],[2024,0.18898757512302428],[2025,0.17166657938915753],[2026,0.13506578333986907]]; median 0.12405277954393112. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 10% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.10130351980934392],[2022,0.09707550691431785],[2023,0.09759462931350595]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 199.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MTS1.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 168159000000; owner earnings 327150000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 174154000000; owner earnings 436912000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2019: growth capex 121397000000; upkeep 186322000000; owner earnings 414215000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2930772666368915.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 287839000000; owner earnings 298938000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 215690000000; owner earnings 335027000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 185525000000; owner earnings 969963000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 228065000000; cash acquisitions 103428000000; owner earnings 1109800000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09319517030095513.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 294771000000; cash acquisitions 259469000000; owner earnings 988502000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2624870764044989.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: growth capex 32417000000; upkeep 313730000000; cash acquisitions 81776000000; owner earnings 810276000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.14093099141527085.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Dividend observations: [[2017,102187000000],[2018,105844000000],[2019,139038000000],[2020,139071000000],[2021,135476000000],[2022,148206000000],[2023,198082000000],[2024,242368000000],[2025,274157000000],[2026,301817000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: cash repurchases 199584000000 JPY.

### What could break it

Sanctions restrict its business in Russia.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); 立場で参画しています。これらの事業においては、当社及び連結子会社はオペレーターである事業参加者が作成した情報に基づき事業性を検討しますが、開発及び生産に係る意思決定を含めた事業の運営はオペレーターの方針に依拠するためその影響を受けます。オペレーターによる事業運営が適切に行われない場合、当社及び連結子会社の経営成績及び財政状態に重要な影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 このため、新規投資の実行については収益性等の定量基準や戦略的意義等の定性評価に基づき意思決定を行うとともに、全事業の保有意義を定期的にレビューし、不振や不採算事業、低収益事業等、アラート基準に抵触する事業については改善計画や撤退方針を検討し、資産の入替えを行っています。また、連結財政状態計算書上の資産に内在するリスクに加えて、マーケットリスクや保証債務等のオフバランスのリスクについても一定の基準で評価し、リスクアセット＊として定期的にモニタリングしています。また、一定の前提の下にストレステストを定期的に実施しリスクアセットと株主資本の比率への影響についても検証しています。＊ 営業債権や投資、固定資産等の連結財政状態計算書上の残高及び保証債務等のオフバランスシート・ポジションに、その潜在的な損失リスクに応じ当社が独自に設定したリスクウェイトを乗じることにより算出する想定最大損失額をいいます。 （2）地政学的リスク 中東情勢やロシア・ウクライナ情勢、米中関係等、国・地域間の政治的・社会的緊張の高まりにより、当社及び連結子会社が当該国・地域に展開する事業の業績が悪化、または継続が困難となるリスクを負っています。 地政学的な不確実性により、当社及び連結子会社の事業を取り巻く経営環境が大きく変わる中、適切な組織運営と責任のある主体的な対応が一層求められており、各事業に関わるステークホルダーとの緊密なコミュニケーションも必須となっています。こうした地政学的リスクの高まりによる不確実な情勢の中で機動的に対応するために、当社では以下のようなリスクヘッジ策を講じていますが、全ての地政学的リスクを回避することは困難であり、当社の経営成績及び財政状態に重要な影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 ・事業を展開する国・地域の政治・経済情勢等の動向を定期的にモニタリングし、当該国や地域におけるリスク及び事業環境の変化を注視しています。・地政学的リスクが高いとされる地域へ事業を展開する際は、保険・各国輸出信用機関によるファイナンス等の金融的手段によりリスクを低減しています。・有事の際の対応についてのノウハウを蓄積し、国・地域をまたぎ複数の現地法人が連携して、従業員の安全を図り、日本国内または海外で事業を継続する体制を構築しています。 中東地域における紛争の長期化や政治情勢の変化が継続した場合、又はこれらが周辺地域へ波及した場合には、エネルギー市況や資源価格の変動、物流の停滞、事業運営コストの増加等を通じて、当社及び連結子会社の事業活動、業績及び財政状態に影響を及ぼす可能性があります。なお、中東地域に対して当社及び連結子会社が行っている投資のうち主なものはLNGプロジェクトに対するその他の投資（FVTOCIの金融資産）であり、詳細は連結財務諸表注記8.「金融商品及び関連する開示（2）その他の投資」をご参照ください。 ロシア・ウクライナ情勢に関し、当社は国際社会が協調し制裁措置を取る中で、それらを遵守しつつ各事業に取り組んでいますが、今後の情勢の変化、制裁や信用力の変動、これらに起因する事業環境の変化や当社の関連事業に係る方針変更等が行われた場合には、当社及び連結子会社の事業活動、業績及び財政状態に重要な影響を与える可能性があります。ロシア向けの投融資、保証、商事債権を集計したリスクエクスポージャー（グロス）は2026年3月末時点で2,798億円となり、当社および連結子会社のリスクエクスポージャー（グロス）の約1.5%となります。また、ウクライナ向けのリスクエクスポージャーは僅少です。なお、2026年3月期決算における影響については、連結財務諸表注記事項27.「ロシア・ウクライナ情勢のロシアLNG事業への影響」をご参照ください。 （3）カントリーリスク 当社及び連結子会社が世界各地で展開する事業は、各国の政治・経済・社会状況の変化により、当該国に所在する取引先等に対する債権や、出資先もしくは進行中のプロジェクトに関する投融資等の回収が不能になる、もしくは在庫・固定資産等の価値が毀損するリスクを負っています。 さらに、当社及び連結子会社の事業活動は、特定の国または地域の特定の分野に一定程度集中しています。そのため、カントリーリスクについては、保険・各国輸出信用機関によるファイナンス等を活用するなど、案件の内容に応じて適切なリスクヘッジ策を講じています。 また、当社が有するすべての債権、投融資、保証等のエクスポージャーを国別に定期的に把握するとともに、原則として先進国を除く国を対象に、カントリーリスクの定性・定量的なモニタリン

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.005985495596828261. Price 4907; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -39.4548292770651 → FY2026 -17.585795381374172. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 770.75 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 803.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 828.25 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 859.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 806.25 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 786.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 747.75 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 802.75 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 802.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 822.25 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 831.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 844.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 852.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 916.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 957.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 975.75 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 911.25 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 988.25 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 958.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 923.75 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 934.25 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 926.25 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,010.25 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 942.75 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 887.25 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 845.25 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 886.25 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 875.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 859.25 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 897.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 838.75 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 877.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 889.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 831.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 884.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 933.75 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 969.75 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 973.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 980.25 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 891.75 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 751.75 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 757.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 817.75 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 797.25 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 787.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 957.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 901.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 815.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 890.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 944.75 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 968.25 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,131.75 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,151.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,151.75 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,207.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,250.25 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,249.75 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,214.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,232.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,296.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,278.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,361.75 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,426.75 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,432.75 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,664.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,497.25 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,462.75 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,633.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,544.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,646.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,991.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,926.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,910.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,912.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,058.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,114.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,202.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,705.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,770.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,716.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,711.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,708.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,696.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,649.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,015.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,276.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,558.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,819.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,985.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,651.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,530.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,123.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,178.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,162.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,136.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,311.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,086.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,795.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,799.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,898.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,029.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,947.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,100.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,426.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,680.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,802.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,147.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,643.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,035.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,872.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,959.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,896.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,290.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,497.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,937.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,009.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,930.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 4,889.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2018: low JPY 814.90 per share, central JPY 886.80 per share, high JPY 982.50 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,526.02 per share, central JPY 1,705.60 per share, high JPY 1,944.67 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 1,494.94 per share, central JPY 1,665.66 per share, high JPY 1,892.92 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,470.57 per share, central JPY 1,636.35 per share, high JPY 1,857.04 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,098.11 per share, central JPY 2,349.61 per share, high JPY 2,684.41 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,222.90 per share, central JPY 4,452.98 per share, high JPY 5,169.25 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,666.84 per share, central JPY 6,576.90 per share, high JPY 7,689.14 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,270.99 per share, central JPY 7,429.87 per share, high JPY 8,686.99 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,206.69 per share, central JPY 4,752.87 per share, high JPY 5,479.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YAVT.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.