Margins varied 11.1% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 2.4%
- Worst year
- 1.8%
- Latest · 2026
- 2.5%
# Aeon (8267.JP) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8267.JP Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:43.584Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026. Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: JPY 1,126.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low JPY 543.84 per share, central JPY 546.69 per share, high JPY 550.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 546.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:43.584Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 3.3% at the stated quote. About 3.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 1 - Operating margin variation: 0.11× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.02× - FY2018: 0.03× - FY2019: 0.02× - FY2020: 0.03× - FY2021: 0.02× - FY2022: 0.02× - FY2023: 0.02× - FY2024: 0.03× - FY2025: 0.02× - FY2026: 0.03× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 6.3% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.8% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.5% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.7% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 4.7% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -0.1% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 5.6% - FY2018: 6.3% - FY2019: 6.6% - FY2020: 7.5% - FY2021: 5.8% - FY2022: 5.8% - FY2023: 6.4% - FY2024: 6.8% - FY2025: 5.9% - FY2026: 6.4% ### economics: fail - owner earnings cash conversion below threshold - incremental invested capital return below threshold - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.23× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 40B - Net income, five-year total: JPY 172B - Return on incremental invested capital: 3.4% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.8 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: -0.20× - FY2023: 0.20× - FY2024: 0.30× - FY2025: -0.04× - FY2026: 0.34× ### management: fail - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 6.4% - Per-share earnings: 13.44 to 17.42 (three-year endpoint medians) - five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 12.5% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 26.2% - Market cap gain: JPY 5.55T - Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -101B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.5% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 26.2% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 3.3% - Per-share value change: JPY 3.98 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 13.44 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 17.42 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.42 - Average buyback yield: 0.2% - Buyback history: 10 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: JPY 301B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 188B - ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3% - ROIC, last three-year median: 6.4% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: JPY 13.44 - FY2018: JPY 29.23 - FY2019: JPY 28.11 - FY2020: JPY 31.88 - FY2021: JPY -84.06 - FY2022: JPY 2.56 - FY2023: JPY 8.37 - FY2024: JPY 17.42 - FY2025: JPY 10.57 - FY2026: JPY 26.87 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -6.9% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 15.50× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.49× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -3.2% - FY2018: -4.6% - FY2019: -4.4% - FY2020: -5.4% - FY2021: -4.1% - FY2022: -1.7% - FY2023: -3.3% - FY2024: -2.5% - FY2025: -3.9% - FY2026: -6.9% ## Holders ## Price story Down 60% since Nov 2025 · sales +5.7% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.733Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 44.7% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +5.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf; observed 2026-05-25. - FY2017: JPY 8.21T - FY2018: JPY 8.39T - FY2019: JPY 8.52T - FY2020: JPY 8.60T - FY2021: JPY 8.60T - FY2022: JPY 8.72T - FY2023: JPY 9.12T - FY2024: JPY 9.55T - FY2025: JPY 10.13T - FY2026: JPY 10.72T ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 24.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf; observed 2026-05-25. - FY2017: 24.5% - FY2018: 24.5% - FY2019: 24.2% - FY2020: 24.1% - FY2021: 24.1% - FY2022: 24.3% - FY2023: 24.5% - FY2024: 24.9% - FY2025: 24.8% - FY2026: 24.7% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Annual sales are JPY 10.7 trillion. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf (filed 2026-05-25); FY2026: revenue 10715342000000; grossProfit 2649178000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 24.7% to 24.9% during 2024–26; it earns 6.3% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.8%. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf (filed 2026-05-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 24.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05581695272306728],[2018,0.06313471947761835],[2019,0.06612805509329202],[2020,0.07503823029231779],[2021,0.057803180444893784],[2022,0.05842841252430804],[2023,0.06383735394096637],[2024,0.06801992272392934],[2025,0.059237393387637755],[2026,0.06374850146100752]]; median 0.06344161046931293. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Kept about a 24% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf (filed 2026-05-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.24062385589807425],[2022,0.24304789479801242],[2023,0.24530749363018237]]; range within 2 percentage points. ### Where the cash goes Earns 3.4% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); FY2023: growth capex 49764000000; upkeep 321084000000; owner earnings 4348626423.771202. Growth capex / owner earnings = 11.443613488611382. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); FY2024: growth capex 67801000000; upkeep 328435000000; owner earnings 13594741863.192928. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.98729587382367. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf (filed 2026-05-25); FY2026: growth capex 165591000000; upkeep 362945000000; owner earnings 24369811484.22946. Growth capex / owner earnings = 6.794923305301709. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); Incremental return on capital 0.03417479605065199, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,24407000000],[2018,25249000000],[2019,26935000000],[2020,29462000000],[2021,30555000000],[2022,30601000000],[2023,30728000000],[2024,30854000000],[2025,32570000000],[2026,35683000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf (filed 2026-05-25); FY2026: cash repurchases 117000000 JPY. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 44.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.6520327505650407. Price 1126.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 7.19 → FY2026 9.00995961007259. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share) - 2016-11: JPY 525.33 per share - 2016-12: JPY 552.00 per share - 2017-01: JPY 543.67 per share - 2017-02: JPY 558.33 per share - 2017-03: JPY 541.67 per share - 2017-04: JPY 551.17 per share - 2017-05: JPY 557.67 per share - 2017-06: JPY 569.00 per share - 2017-07: JPY 554.17 per share - 2017-08: JPY 540.67 per share - 2017-09: JPY 554.17 per share - 2017-10: JPY 583.50 per share - 2017-11: JPY 608.00 per share - 2017-12: JPY 634.17 per share - 2018-01: JPY 619.17 per share - 2018-02: JPY 602.17 per share - 2018-03: JPY 633.17 per share - 2018-04: JPY 729.17 per share - 2018-05: JPY 719.67 per share - 2018-06: JPY 790.00 per share - 2018-07: JPY 755.50 per share - 2018-08: JPY 802.17 per share - 2018-09: JPY 912.50 per share - 2018-10: JPY 863.33 per share - 2018-11: JPY 907.00 per share - 2018-12: JPY 716.50 per share - 2019-01: JPY 736.17 per share - 2019-02: JPY 782.00 per share - 2019-03: JPY 772.17 per share - 2019-04: JPY 684.83 per share - 2019-05: JPY 625.83 per share - 2019-06: JPY 617.00 per share - 2019-07: JPY 630.67 per share - 2019-08: JPY 628.00 per share - 2019-09: JPY 660.17 per share - 2019-10: JPY 728.33 per share - 2019-11: JPY 744.33 per share - 2019-12: JPY 751.83 per share - 2020-01: JPY 751.17 per share - 2020-02: JPY 671.50 per share - 2020-03: JPY 799.67 per share - 2020-04: JPY 723.83 per share - 2020-05: JPY 794.50 per share - 2020-06: JPY 835.00 per share - 2020-07: JPY 830.00 per share - 2020-08: JPY 876.33 per share - 2020-09: JPY 942.00 per share - 2020-10: JPY 887.83 per share - 2020-11: JPY 1,035.00 per share - 2020-12: JPY 1,128.33 per share - 2021-01: JPY 1,092.00 per share - 2021-02: JPY 1,067.67 per share - 2021-03: JPY 1,099.67 per share - 2021-04: JPY 994.17 per share - 2021-05: JPY 977.33 per share - 2021-06: JPY 995.00 per share - 2021-07: JPY 995.67 per share - 2021-08: JPY 973.17 per share - 2021-09: JPY 980.00 per share - 2021-10: JPY 872.67 per share - 2021-11: JPY 881.50 per share - 2021-12: JPY 903.00 per share - 2022-01: JPY 868.83 per share - 2022-02: JPY 865.83 per share - 2022-03: JPY 869.83 per share - 2022-04: JPY 822.83 per share - 2022-05: JPY 785.83 per share - 2022-06: JPY 784.67 per share - 2022-07: JPY 893.00 per share - 2022-08: JPY 907.50 per share - 2022-09: JPY 901.17 per share - 2022-10: JPY 925.50 per share - 2022-11: JPY 941.00 per share - 2022-12: JPY 927.67 per share - 2023-01: JPY 885.83 per share - 2023-02: JPY 846.67 per share - 2023-03: JPY 855.33 per share - 2023-04: JPY 922.50 per share - 2023-05: JPY 920.00 per share - 2023-06: JPY 980.67 per share - 2023-07: JPY 1,026.00 per share - 2023-08: JPY 1,006.33 per share - 2023-09: JPY 987.50 per share - 2023-10: JPY 1,055.67 per share - 2023-11: JPY 1,020.33 per share - 2023-12: JPY 1,050.33 per share - 2024-01: JPY 1,177.67 per share - 2024-02: JPY 1,191.67 per share - 2024-03: JPY 1,199.33 per share - 2024-04: JPY 1,100.67 per share - 2024-05: JPY 1,129.00 per share - 2024-06: JPY 1,146.33 per share - 2024-07: JPY 1,145.00 per share - 2024-08: JPY 1,216.33 per share - 2024-09: JPY 1,299.67 per share - 2024-10: JPY 1,246.67 per share - 2024-11: JPY 1,198.00 per share - 2024-12: JPY 1,231.67 per share - 2025-01: JPY 1,255.00 per share - 2025-02: JPY 1,228.00 per share - 2025-03: JPY 1,250.00 per share - 2025-04: JPY 1,409.00 per share - 2025-05: JPY 1,478.33 per share - 2025-06: JPY 1,473.33 per share - 2025-07: JPY 1,611.00 per share - 2025-08: JPY 1,787.00 per share - 2025-09: JPY 1,795.00 per share - 2025-10: JPY 2,439.50 per share - 2025-11: JPY 2,827.50 per share - 2025-12: JPY 2,477.00 per share - 2026-01: JPY 2,115.00 per share - 2026-02: JPY 2,226.50 per share - 2026-03: JPY 1,884.50 per share - 2026-04: JPY 1,510.00 per share - 2026-05: JPY 1,391.50 per share - 2026-06: JPY 1,341.00 per share - 2026-07: JPY 1,364.00 per share - 2026-08: JPY 1,356.50 per share - 2026-09: JPY 1,289.00 per share - 2026-10: JPY 1,119.00 per share ## Annual estimated value (JPY per share) - FY2026: low JPY 543.84 per share, central JPY 546.69 per share, high JPY 550.48 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y5VH.pdf); period 2026-02-28, filed 2026-05-25. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
8267 · JP
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Large70
Not a wonderful business
3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 11.1% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 6.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 5.8% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.23 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 3.4% (minimum 12%).
Share growth was 12.5% over ten years and 26.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.9% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 2.3%, three-year average owner earnings per share 4.62 JPY.
| Value range | JPY 543.84 – JPY 550.48 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value JPY 546.69 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 1126.50 / 546.69 = -106.1% |
| Return / year | About 3.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash JPY 1.89/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 523.18/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |