Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).
- 10y median
- JPY 166B
- Worst year
- JPY 79B
- Latest · 2026
- JPY 318B
# Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (8309.JP) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8309.JP Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:44.229Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026. Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: JPY 1,663.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low JPY 426.05 per share, central JPY 500.05 per share, high JPY 605.15 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 500.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:44.229Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 10 - Required profitable years: 9 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.27× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: JPY 121B - FY2018: JPY 154B - FY2019: JPY 174B - FY2020: JPY 163B - FY2021: JPY 142B - FY2022: JPY 169B - FY2023: JPY 191B - FY2024: JPY 79B - FY2025: JPY 258B - FY2026: JPY 318B ### moat: fail - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - median return on common equity below threshold - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 6.6% - Required median return: 12.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: Yes - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 5.4% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 5.4% - FY2018: 6.3% - FY2019: 6.9% - FY2020: 6.7% - FY2021: 5.5% - FY2022: 6.5% - FY2023: 7.2% - FY2024: 2.7% - FY2025: 8.8% - FY2026: 9.4% ### economics: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 8.1% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: JPY 3K - Ending book value per share: JPY 5K Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 6.3% - FY2018: 10.7% - FY2019: 5.7% - FY2020: 0.1% - FY2021: 9.0% - FY2022: 2.6% - FY2023: 7.0% - FY2024: 16.2% - FY2025: 3.2% - FY2026: 21.6% ### management: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.9% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.3% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.65× - Book value created per share: JPY 2K - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: JPY 1K Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 100 - FY2017: 99 - FY2018: 99 - FY2019: 98 - FY2020: 97 - FY2021: 97 - FY2022: 97 - FY2023: 96 - FY2024: 94 - FY2025: 93 - FY2026: 91 ### accounting: pass - Financial accounting warning count: 0 - Loans, annualized growth: 1.9% - Deposits, annualized growth: 4.1% - Known restatement years: 0 - Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 3 ## Holders ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever · net income +23.3% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.742Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever ### Net income · FY2026 net income +23.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGM.pdf; observed 2026-06-17. - FY2017: JPY 121B - FY2018: JPY 154B - FY2019: JPY 174B - FY2020: JPY 163B - FY2021: JPY 142B - FY2022: JPY 169B - FY2023: JPY 191B - FY2024: JPY 79B - FY2025: JPY 258B - FY2026: JPY 318B ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in regional banking; annual sales are JPY 1.6 trillion. - Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/MIU.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 1552023000000. ### Why customers stay It earns 6.6% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,0.05402817921485951],[2018,0.06343573643433208],[2019,0.0694990833454235],[2020,0.06720553777456785],[2021,0.055083621381258725],[2022,0.06528385375440655],[2023,0.07177442538184182],[2024,0.026782151499616522],[2025,0.08818818774275414],[2026,0.09424433679575903]]; median 0.0662446957644872. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 60 billion of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,49847000000],[2018,49594000000],[2019,49344000000],[2020,56511000000],[2021,56241000000],[2022,58115000000],[2023,70518000000],[2024,80020000000],[2025,91871000000],[2026,115146000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGM.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: cash repurchases 60026000000 JPY. ### What could break it "②信用ポートフォリオにおける大口与信先への与信集中リ ・三井住友信託銀行株式会社では、信用格付に応じて取" (8309 filing, Jun 2026) - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGM.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); ②信用ポートフォリオにおける大口与信先への与信集中リ ・三井住友信託銀行株式会社では、信用格付に応じて取 ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 8.3% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Price 1663.5; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 28.79093188588203; discount 0.1; growth 0.08269255672625067. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share) - 2016-11: JPY 518.75 per share - 2016-12: JPY 522.88 per share - 2017-01: JPY 529.00 per share - 2017-02: JPY 503.63 per share - 2017-03: JPY 482.50 per share - 2017-04: JPY 477.13 per share - 2017-05: JPY 468.75 per share - 2017-06: JPY 502.38 per share - 2017-07: JPY 506.75 per share - 2017-08: JPY 475.75 per share - 2017-09: JPY 507.63 per share - 2017-10: JPY 555.63 per share - 2017-11: JPY 520.50 per share - 2017-12: JPY 559.13 per share - 2018-01: JPY 565.88 per share - 2018-02: JPY 541.38 per share - 2018-03: JPY 538.38 per share - 2018-04: JPY 580.75 per share - 2018-05: JPY 567.75 per share - 2018-06: JPY 549.13 per share - 2018-07: JPY 554.50 per share - 2018-08: JPY 557.63 per share - 2018-09: JPY 584.50 per share - 2018-10: JPY 561.75 per share - 2018-11: JPY 569.00 per share - 2018-12: JPY 502.75 per share - 2019-01: JPY 515.88 per share - 2019-02: JPY 527.38 per share - 2019-03: JPY 497.00 per share - 2019-04: JPY 483.00 per share - 2019-05: JPY 498.13 per share - 2019-06: JPY 488.25 per share - 2019-07: JPY 466.75 per share - 2019-08: JPY 434.00 per share - 2019-09: JPY 487.00 per share - 2019-10: JPY 497.00 per share - 2019-11: JPY 523.38 per share - 2019-12: JPY 542.13 per share - 2020-01: JPY 510.38 per share - 2020-02: JPY 462.50 per share - 2020-03: JPY 390.50 per share - 2020-04: JPY 395.13 per share - 2020-05: JPY 396.38 per share - 2020-06: JPY 378.13 per share - 2020-07: JPY 338.75 per share - 2020-08: JPY 383.88 per share - 2020-09: JPY 349.06 per share - 2020-10: JPY 347.94 per share - 2020-11: JPY 381.38 per share - 2020-12: JPY 397.13 per share - 2021-01: JPY 391.50 per share - 2021-02: JPY 437.75 per share - 2021-03: JPY 482.38 per share - 2021-04: JPY 465.00 per share - 2021-05: JPY 471.38 per share - 2021-06: JPY 441.00 per share - 2021-07: JPY 449.50 per share - 2021-08: JPY 449.75 per share - 2021-09: JPY 482.13 per share - 2021-10: JPY 469.25 per share - 2021-11: JPY 445.00 per share - 2021-12: JPY 480.38 per share - 2022-01: JPY 495.63 per share - 2022-02: JPY 513.75 per share - 2022-03: JPY 500.13 per share - 2022-04: JPY 503.88 per share - 2022-05: JPY 484.75 per share - 2022-06: JPY 522.50 per share - 2022-07: JPY 545.25 per share - 2022-08: JPY 542.00 per share - 2022-09: JPY 512.38 per share - 2022-10: JPY 534.63 per share - 2022-11: JPY 550.88 per share - 2022-12: JPY 573.50 per share - 2023-01: JPY 591.88 per share - 2023-02: JPY 630.63 per share - 2023-03: JPY 567.63 per share - 2023-04: JPY 611.13 per share - 2023-05: JPY 613.13 per share - 2023-06: JPY 639.13 per share - 2023-07: JPY 690.88 per share - 2023-08: JPY 681.38 per share - 2023-09: JPY 703.88 per share - 2023-10: JPY 701.25 per share - 2023-11: JPY 694.88 per share - 2023-12: JPY 676.50 per share - 2024-01: JPY 760.25 per share - 2024-02: JPY 759.75 per share - 2024-03: JPY 825.25 per share - 2024-04: JPY 829.50 per share - 2024-05: JPY 910.75 per share - 2024-06: JPY 917.50 per share - 2024-07: JPY 960.25 per share - 2024-08: JPY 900.75 per share - 2024-09: JPY 847.75 per share - 2024-10: JPY 844.50 per share - 2024-11: JPY 936.50 per share - 2024-12: JPY 923.00 per share - 2025-01: JPY 970.50 per share - 2025-02: JPY 956.25 per share - 2025-03: JPY 930.00 per share - 2025-04: JPY 881.25 per share - 2025-05: JPY 980.75 per share - 2025-06: JPY 959.75 per share - 2025-07: JPY 994.25 per share - 2025-08: JPY 1,054.75 per share - 2025-09: JPY 1,074.75 per share - 2025-10: JPY 1,057.75 per share - 2025-11: JPY 1,130.25 per share - 2025-12: JPY 1,194.25 per share - 2026-01: JPY 1,279.50 per share - 2026-02: JPY 1,370.75 per share - 2026-03: JPY 1,225.50 per share - 2026-04: JPY 1,294.50 per share - 2026-05: JPY 1,368.50 per share - 2026-06: JPY 1,514.25 per share - 2026-07: JPY 1,654.00 per share - 2026-08: JPY 1,777.00 per share - 2026-09: JPY 1,784.00 per share - 2026-10: JPY 1,682.00 per share ## Annual estimated value (JPY per share) - FY2018: low JPY 1,806.70 per share, central JPY 1,987.37 per share, high JPY 2,208.18 per share - FY2019: low JPY 1,888.80 per share, central JPY 2,077.68 per share, high JPY 2,308.53 per share - FY2020: low JPY 942.44 per share, central JPY 1,111.53 per share, high JPY 1,354.55 per share - FY2021: low JPY 1,014.73 per share, central JPY 1,193.66 per share, high JPY 1,449.18 per share - FY2022: low JPY 1,054.30 per share, central JPY 1,239.29 per share, high JPY 1,502.99 per share - FY2023: low JPY 1,150.88 per share, central JPY 1,352.56 per share, high JPY 1,639.94 per share - FY2024: low JPY 1,334.40 per share, central JPY 1,565.05 per share, high JPY 1,892.08 per share - FY2025: low JPY 1,416.42 per share, central JPY 1,664.71 per share, high JPY 2,018.54 per share - FY2026: low JPY 1,689.88 per share, central JPY 1,983.39 per share, high JPY 2,400.27 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:44.229Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGM.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group
8309 · JP
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Large70
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
- Share price
- JPY 1,663.50
- Buy up to
- JPY 500.05
- Expected / yr
- 6.0% at today's price (10.0% at central value)
The business
- How it makes money
- Why customers stay
- Where the cash goes
- What could break it
- What the price says
1. Is this a good business?
Earned a median 6.6% on tangible equity (minimum 12%).
- 10y median
- 6.6%
- Worst year
- 2.7%
- Latest · 2026
- 9.4%
Book value plus dividends grew 8.1% a year (minimum 7%).
- 10y median
- 6.6%
- Worst year
- 0.1%
- Latest · 2026
- 21.6%
Ordinary share growth was -0.9% over the full period and -1.3% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).
- 11y median
- 97
- Worst year
- 100
- Latest · 2026
- 91
0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
- accounting warnings
- 0
- Passing bar
- ≤ 0
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 306.84 JPY.
2. Is the price low enough?
| Value range | JPY 426.05 – JPY 605.15 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value JPY 500.05 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 1663.50 / 500.05 = -232.7% |
| Return / year | About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book JPY 1208.64/share; ROE 6.6%; first payout JPY 28.79/share, growing 4.2% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |
Net incomeJPY 318B
FY2017 · Net income: JPY 121B; FY2018 · Net income: JPY 154B; FY2019 · Net income: JPY 174B; FY2020 · Net income: JPY 163B; FY2021 · Net income: JPY 142B; FY2022 · Net income: JPY 169B; FY2023 · Net income: JPY 191B; FY2024 · Net income: JPY 79B; FY2025 · Net income: JPY 258B; FY2026 · Net income: JPY 318B
Book / shareJPY 5K
FY2017 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2018 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2019 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2020 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2021 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2022 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2023 · Book / share: JPY 4K; FY2024 · Book / share: JPY 4K; FY2025 · Book / share: JPY 4K; FY2026 · Book / share: JPY 5K
Dividend / shareJPY 163.82
FY2017 · Dividend / share: JPY 65.10; FY2018 · Dividend / share: JPY 65.04; FY2019 · Dividend / share: JPY 65.11; FY2020 · Dividend / share: JPY 75.27; FY2021 · Dividend / share: JPY 75.08; FY2022 · Dividend / share: JPY 77.58; FY2023 · Dividend / share: JPY 95.47; FY2024 · Dividend / share: JPY 110.29; FY2025 · Dividend / share: JPY 128.22; FY2026 · Dividend / share: JPY 163.82
Return on tangible equity9.4%
FY2017 · Return on tangible equity: 5.4%; FY2018 · Return on tangible equity: 6.3%; FY2019 · Return on tangible equity: 6.9%; FY2020 · Return on tangible equity: 6.7%; FY2021 · Return on tangible equity: 5.5%; FY2022 · Return on tangible equity: 6.5%; FY2023 · Return on tangible equity: 7.2%; FY2024 · Return on tangible equity: 2.7%; FY2025 · Return on tangible equity: 8.8%; FY2026 · Return on tangible equity: 9.4%
Diluted shares703M
FY2017 · Diluted shares: 766M; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 762M; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 758M; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 751M; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 749M; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 749M; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 739M; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 726M; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 717M; FY2026 · Diluted shares: 703M
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·