# Daiwa Securities Group (8601.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8601.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:47.555Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,726.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,385.58 per share, central JPY 5,830.17 per share, high JPY 6,155.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,830.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:47.555Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.8%

- FY2018: 14.8%

- FY2019: 7.5%

- FY2020: 6.0%

- FY2021: 12.3%

- FY2022: 7.7%

- FY2023: 3.5%

- FY2024: 12.9%

- FY2025: 7.5%

- FY2026: 9.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 603B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 610B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.93×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.5% vs 9.4%

- Per-share earnings: 66.88 to 109.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 884B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 403B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 6.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 42.65

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 66.88

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 109.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.33

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 180B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.06T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 61.53

- FY2018: JPY 66.88

- FY2019: JPY 39.95

- FY2020: JPY 39.11

- FY2021: JPY 71.20

- FY2022: JPY 63.06

- FY2023: JPY 43.53

- FY2024: JPY 84.94

- FY2025: JPY 109.53

- FY2026: JPY 126.04

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.50×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.3%

- FY2018: 6.8%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -0.4%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: 1.6%

- FY2023: 0.9%

- FY2024: -1.8%

- FY2025: 1.7%

- FY2026: -0.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 100% since Oct 2023 · sales +7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.756Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: JPY 616B 

- FY2018: JPY 713B 

- FY2019: JPY 721B 

- FY2020: JPY 672B 

- FY2021: JPY 576B 

- FY2022: JPY 619B 

- FY2023: JPY 866B 

- FY2024: JPY 1.28T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.37T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.47T 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 1467983000000; operatingIncome 207333000000; margin = operatingIncome / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12% to 14.1% during 2024–26; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: operatingIncome / revenue = 12%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: operatingIncome / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: operatingIncome / revenue = 14.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.018428641694138406],[2018,0.14845705067959794],[2019,0.07543634720768015],[2020,0.05994140628823125],[2021,0.12275340678039598],[2022,0.07703335168997685],[2023,0.0350079487231413],[2024,0.1287195351560683],[2025,0.0751281777852965],[2026,0.0940995031807061]]; median 0.0762348494488285. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 46.5% of cash earnings; earns 11.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 40029000000; owner earnings 92474000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2018: growth capex 10218000000; upkeep 29242000000; owner earnings 110579000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09240452527152533.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2019: growth capex 1598629266.0648346; upkeep 85131370733.93517; owner earnings 8999629266.064835. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17763279117428013.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 57973000000; owner earnings 39624000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 58600000000; owner earnings 91164504838.07718. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2022: growth capex 33520552014.03218; upkeep 52066447985.96782; owner earnings 88098865802.76855. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3804878951458508.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2023: growth capex 37294000000; upkeep 43954000000; cash acquisitions 12140000000; owner earnings 63875000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7739178082191781.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: growth capex 19221000000; upkeep 45274000000; cash acquisitions 10993000000; owner earnings 121557000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2485582895267241.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: growth capex 40941000000; upkeep 44353000000; cash acquisitions 98644000000; owner earnings 154368000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9042353337479271.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: growth capex 67323000000; upkeep 44418000000; cash acquisitions 14196000000; owner earnings 175281000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4650760778407243.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Incremental return on capital 0.11892732071376294, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,42326000000],[2018,43499000000],[2019,43575000000],[2020,31164000000],[2021,30429000000],[2022,63790000000],[2023,39905000000],[2024,44746000000],[2025,74521000000],[2026,79869000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: cash repurchases 50011000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price is 1.6 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Closing price 1726 JPY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 1055.5883257169917; price multiple 1.6351071321555606. FY2026 cash earnings/share 126.04. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 687.40 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 720.30 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 723.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 712.30 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 677.90 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 677.30 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 673.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 665.80 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 636.10 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 601.80 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 637.30 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 705.70 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 698.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 706.90 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 782.20 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 716.80 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 678.70 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 672.70 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 631.70 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 643.30 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 650.80 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 666.40 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 691.20 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 646.90 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 626.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 556.60 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 541.80 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 565.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 539.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 515.10 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 474.40 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 472.10 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 471.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 457.80 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 481.40 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 489.70 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 555.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 553.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 559.10 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 459.20 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 419.20 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 448.40 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 446.70 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 449.70 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 464.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 478.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 440.70 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 421.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 454.10 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 470.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 497.20 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 517.60 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 572.10 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 582.10 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 629.80 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 610.10 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 574.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 622.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 653.90 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 638.70 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 630.90 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 648.70 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 688.20 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 681.80 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 692.70 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 636.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 625.80 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 606.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 612.70 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 608.60 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 566.40 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 580.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 608.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 583.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 612.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 651.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 621.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 629.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 633.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 740.30 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 770.10 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 829.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 863.10 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 864.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 955.40 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 949.10 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,064.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,102.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,146.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,162.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,234.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,227.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,257.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,074.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,005.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,017.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,005.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,048.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,131.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,046.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 993.80 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 934.20 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 979.10 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,024.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,057.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,153.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,202.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,189.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,294.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,370.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,503.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,646.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,467.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,500.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,595.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,807.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,843.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,809.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,738.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 3,635.48 per share, central JPY 3,705.65 per share, high JPY 3,799.07 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 4,353.09 per share, central JPY 4,438.64 per share, high JPY 4,552.53 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 4,126.37 per share, central JPY 4,214.61 per share, high JPY 4,332.06 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,513.29 per share, central JPY 3,727.64 per share, high JPY 3,863.14 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,921.27 per share, central JPY 5,416.11 per share, high JPY 5,704.26 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,016.08 per share, central JPY 5,654.18 per share, high JPY 6,025.75 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 5,385.58 per share, central JPY 5,830.17 per share, high JPY 6,155.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCMP.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.