# Nomura Holdings (8604.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8604.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:47.635Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,446.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 877.23 per share, central JPY 1,253.14 per share, high JPY 1,472.03 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,253.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:47.635Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 3.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.55×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.47×

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.52×

- FY2024: 0.69×

- FY2025: 0.70×

- FY2026: 0.66×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -5.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 2.6%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: 8.4%

- FY2021: 3.4%

- FY2022: 2.8%

- FY2023: 7.5%

- FY2024: 14.2%

- FY2025: 17.3%

- FY2026: 12.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -3.25×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY -3.59T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.10T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -5.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -21.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -6.29×

- FY2023: -7.98×

- FY2024: 0.51×

- FY2025: -2.34×

- FY2026: -3.41×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 63.13 to 115.30 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.08T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 466B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY 52.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 63.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 115.30

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.83T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 67.29

- FY2018: JPY 63.13

- FY2019: JPY -29.90

- FY2020: JPY 67.76

- FY2021: JPY 50.11

- FY2022: JPY 46.68

- FY2023: JPY 30.86

- FY2024: JPY 54.97

- FY2025: JPY 115.30

- FY2026: JPY 123.08

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -2.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.5%

- FY2018: 1.6%

- FY2019: 0.6%

- FY2020: 0.7%

- FY2021: -1.2%

- FY2022: 2.3%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: 1.8%

- FY2026: 1.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.3% a year for ten years · sales +0.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.761Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC5C.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 1.72T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.97T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.84T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.95T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.62T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.59T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.49T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.16T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.74T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.76T 

### Gross margin · FY2019

gross margin 46.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC5C.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: 62.0% 

- FY2019: 46.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are JPY 4.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC5C.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 4758486000000; operatingIncome 3130594000000; margin = operatingIncome / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-01); NMR.US: Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, investment and management for investment vehicles, funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships. The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 65.8% to 70% during 2024–26; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: operatingIncome / revenue = 69%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: operatingIncome / revenue = 70%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC5C.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: operatingIncome / revenue = 65.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.026176833900272055],[2019,0.004073236208050037],[2020,0.08374004239734158],[2021,0.03402897667485039],[2022,0.02830805488453396],[2023,0.0751736346070569],[2024,0.1421260366083541],[2025,0.17320965006656072],[2026,0.1273055953741356]]; median 0.0751736346070569. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years; bought back JPY 101.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 10496000000; owner earnings 206466000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 12978000000; cash acquisitions 457000000; owner earnings 84085000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.005434976511862996.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2018,70199000000],[2019,47475000000],[2020,58416000000],[2021,76358000000],[2022,70714000000],[2023,57262000000],[2024,60164000000],[2025,112541000000],[2026,179742000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/NSE.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 101499000000 JPY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-01); NMR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-01.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10607949349630885. Price 1446; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 614.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 689.10 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 703.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 729.30 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 691.90 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 669.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 663.40 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 673.40 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 656.80 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 612.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 630.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 648.80 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 670.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 665.10 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 707.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 659.60 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 615.30 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 632.10 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 564.10 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 538.20 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 528.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 508.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 542.70 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 547.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 511.40 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 420.80 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 441.90 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 430.60 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 400.20 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 417.80 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 342.30 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 379.40 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 343.60 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 428.10 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 457.90 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 495.30 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 560.70 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 563.40 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 566.30 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 479.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 457.80 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 449.80 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 462.90 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 482.40 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 489.70 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 544.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 478.60 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 464.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 524.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 545.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 551.70 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 618.80 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 581.40 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 586.90 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 601.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 567.80 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 548.10 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 533.60 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 553.60 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 550.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 477.40 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 501.70 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 504.90 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 526.30 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 515.20 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 500.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 508.90 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 495.90 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 507.60 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 503.80 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 478.40 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 481.80 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 500.70 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 488.60 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 517.70 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 561.30 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 509.70 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 485.90 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 489.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 547.20 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 586.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 564.20 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 599.10 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 579.90 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 607.30 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 637.70 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 769.20 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 850.80 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 974.30 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 900.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 950.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 922.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 940.10 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 848.30 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 743.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 799.20 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 901.40 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 931.30 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,019.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 968.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 908.20 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 791.20 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 888.30 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 952.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,005.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,060.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,085.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,102.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,177.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,301.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,413.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,452.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,204.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,256.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,285.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,413.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,520.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,635.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,551.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,473.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 691.32 per share, central JPY 786.64 per share, high JPY 913.53 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:47.635Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC5C.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.