# Mitsui Fudosan (8801.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8801.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:49.496Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,469.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,155.87 per share, central JPY 1,570.04 per share, high JPY 1,838.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,570.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:49.496Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.5% at the stated quote. About 10.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- FY2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.3%

- FY2018: 4.1%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: 3.9%

- FY2021: 2.5%

- FY2022: 2.8%

- FY2023: 3.4%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 3.6%

- FY2026: 3.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.07T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.13T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.95×

- FY2026: 0.95×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.1% vs 3.6%

- Per-share earnings: 44.47 to 89.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.22T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.20T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 44.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 44.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 89.26

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 74B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.90T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 44.47

- FY2018: JPY 52.58

- FY2019: JPY 57.10

- FY2020: JPY 62.78

- FY2021: JPY 44.81

- FY2022: JPY 61.48

- FY2023: JPY 69.30

- FY2024: JPY 80.19

- FY2025: JPY 89.26

- FY2026: JPY 101.04

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.52×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.7%

- FY2018: 2.0%

- FY2019: -0.7%

- FY2020: 1.3%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: -1.2%

- FY2023: -1.1%

- FY2024: -0.2%

- FY2025: -3.6%

- FY2026: 1.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 30% since Feb 2026 · sales +3.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.805Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHUO.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 1.70T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.75T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.86T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.91T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.01T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.10T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.27T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.38T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.63T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.71T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 24.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHUO.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2023: 23.2% 

- FY2024: 24.9% 

- FY2025: 24.2% 

- FY2026: 24.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.7 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHUO.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 2709747000000; grossProfit 674785000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.2% to 24.9% during 2024–26; it earns 3.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8801.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8801.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.2%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8801.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.043031958440683894],[2018,0.04050280798050285],[2019,0.03970640999542868],[2020,0.0388853055857291],[2021,0.02529970462177525],[2022,0.028449444783196404],[2023,0.03419490695805467],[2024,0.03358718691468084],[2025,0.036421675842186675],[2026,0.03643878679878856]]; median 0.036430231320487616. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 32.5% of cash earnings; earns 7.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 97224000000; upkeep 71357000000; owner earnings 127910000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7600969431631616.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 199559703004.1004; upkeep 138758296995.8996; owner earnings 105053703004.1004. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.8995970374914941.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 178141000000; upkeep 98196000000; owner earnings 124804000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.427366110060575.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 130067000000; upkeep 111500000000; owner earnings 171992000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7562386622633611.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 237446000000; upkeep 125298000000; cash acquisitions 6767000000; owner earnings 186873000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.306839404301317.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 87106000000; upkeep 133726000000; cash acquisitions 37617000000; owner earnings 214180000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5823279484545709.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 130964000000; upkeep 140516000000; cash acquisitions 7861000000; owner earnings 236937000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5859152432925208.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHUO.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 85435000000; upkeep 150976000000; cash acquisitions 777000000; owner earnings 264953000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.325386011858707.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.07553587433880853, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,31621000000],[2018,35573000000],[2019,41363000000],[2020,45048000000],[2021,42522000000],[2022,42331000000],[2023,59853000000],[2024,62551000000],[2025,87534000000],[2026,91467000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 19.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0508642239490128. Price 1469.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 16.377428981685032 → FY2026 96.06167243185831. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 896.83 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 901.67 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 872.17 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 847.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 791.33 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 816.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 873.67 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 893.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 844.83 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 792.67 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 813.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 875.33 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 845.33 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 841.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 952.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 859.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 860.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 937.17 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 911.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 891.33 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 888.67 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 848.17 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 896.33 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 848.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 905.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 815.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 879.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 879.17 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 927.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 855.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 877.17 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 870.83 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 823.83 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 848.67 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 893.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 927.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 907.67 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 890.67 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 970.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 825.83 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 623.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 666.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 691.17 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 636.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 549.33 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 640.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 608.83 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 591.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 727.17 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 719.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 706.17 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 800.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 837.83 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 790.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 849.83 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 857.67 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 850.83 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 841.33 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 889.17 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 866.17 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 778.67 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 759.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 816.17 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 852.33 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 873.33 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 915.17 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 939.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 972.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 988.83 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 941.17 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 918.17 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 949.83 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 925.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 805.67 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 810.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 865.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 828.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 897.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 887.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 953.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 972.83 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,064.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,098.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,082.33 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,157.33 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,152.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,242.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,353.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,653.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,613.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,440.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,468.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,573.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,568.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,338.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,326.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,254.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,270.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,409.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,330.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,409.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,390.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,395.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,358.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,570.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,613.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,601.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,833.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,780.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,767.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,106.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,655.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,704.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,530.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,499.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,560.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,522.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,474.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,421.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 269.73 per share, central JPY 300.08 per share, high JPY 340.47 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 480.01 per share, central JPY 539.07 per share, high JPY 617.68 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 486.51 per share, central JPY 548.59 per share, high JPY 631.23 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 633.40 per share, central JPY 795.72 per share, high JPY 924.18 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 897.74 per share, central JPY 1,131.95 per share, high JPY 1,314.29 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,037.35 per share, central JPY 1,384.96 per share, high JPY 1,615.65 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,155.87 per share, central JPY 1,570.04 per share, high JPY 1,838.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHUO.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.