# Tokyo Tatemono (8804.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8804.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:49.626Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,165.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,136.31 per share, central JPY 5,390.42 per share, high JPY 6,199.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 5,390.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:49.626Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.0% at the stated quote. About 16.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.4%

- FY2017: 2.7%

- FY2018: 2.8%

- FY2019: 2.8%

- FY2020: 2.7%

- FY2021: 3.0%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 3.2%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 3.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 237B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 248B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 6.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 47.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 113.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.82×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.7% vs 3.4%

- Per-share earnings: 91.00 to 283.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 398B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 233B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 192.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 91.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 283.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.24

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 35B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 379B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 91.00

- FY2017: JPY 104.17

- FY2018: JPY 125.79

- FY2019: JPY 141.59

- FY2020: JPY 152.12

- FY2021: JPY 167.35

- FY2022: JPY 206.15

- FY2023: JPY 215.82

- FY2024: JPY 315.50

- FY2025: JPY 283.08

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.2%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.55×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.4%

- FY2017: 2.6%

- FY2018: 0.5%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: -0.7%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: 2.7%

- FY2023: 1.3%

- FY2024: 2.3%

- FY2025: 1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Feb 2026 · sales +2.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.815Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: JPY 254B 

- FY2017: JPY 267B 

- FY2018: JPY 273B 

- FY2019: JPY 323B 

- FY2020: JPY 335B 

- FY2021: JPY 340B 

- FY2022: JPY 350B 

- FY2023: JPY 376B 

- FY2024: JPY 464B 

- FY2025: JPY 475B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2022: 29.0% 

- FY2023: 29.0% 

- FY2024: 27.3% 

- FY2025: 30.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 474.6 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: revenue 474586000000; grossProfit 142332000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.3% to 30% during 2023–25; it earns 2.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8804.T (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8804.T (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.3%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/8804.T (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.023919975792560867],[2017,0.026668873755998978],[2018,0.028144594140375224],[2019,0.02836782040957177],[2020,0.0265472929439984],[2021,0.029774812473602922],[2022,0.033568828445944575],[2023,0.032471086851309276],[2024,0.03397686813152737],[2025,0.036503430038953504]]; median 0.029071316441587346. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 50.5% of cash earnings; earns 4.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2017: growth capex 27653000000; upkeep 15039000000; owner earnings 22599000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.223638214080269.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 18528560648.582382; upkeep 22269439351.417618; owner earnings 21455560648.582382. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8635784891413036.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2019: growth capex 47449000000; upkeep 17277000000; owner earnings 29796000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5924620754463685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2020: growth capex 32642528208.139046; upkeep 25541471791.860954; owner earnings 25224528208.139046. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2940788401983463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2021: growth capex 814000000; upkeep 18572000000; owner earnings 34965000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02328042328042328.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2022: growth capex 3699000000; upkeep 18796000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 43062000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0858994008638707.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: growth capex 24339000000; upkeep 20457000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 45084000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5398589299973383.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: growth capex 102762000000; upkeep 22390000000; cash acquisitions 14456000000; owner earnings 65882000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.779211317203485.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: growth capex 24289372320.417244; upkeep 34378627679.582756; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 48080372320.417244. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.505182700303317.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Incremental return on capital 0.049340585529225045, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,5198000000],[2017,6068000000],[2018,6935000000],[2019,8085000000],[2020,9194000000],[2021,10029000000],[2022,11700000000],[2023,15047000000],[2024,15462000000],[2025,22107000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 3004000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05086328193118894. Price 3165; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 75.91 → FY2025 231.16207470343778. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,476.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,563.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,498.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,585.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,468.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,521.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,520.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,472.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,502.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,354.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,439.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,581.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,556.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,522.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,751.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,663.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,603.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,667.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,508.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,521.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,501.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,362.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,386.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,217.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,294.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,140.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,322.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,293.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,357.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,251.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,133.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,197.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,277.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,385.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,518.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,549.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,666.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,709.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,473.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,147.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,229.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,389.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,236.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,130.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,291.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,283.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,196.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,433.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,415.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,411.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,511.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,681.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,613.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,628.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,584.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,685.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,774.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,680.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,703.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,834.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,824.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,715.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,869.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,954.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,095.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,058.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,049.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,921.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,599.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,606.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,668.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,714.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,850.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,897.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,915.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,068.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,989.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,101.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,112.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,288.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,170.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,643.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,632.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,544.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,539.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,642.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,429.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,296.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,521.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,586.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,607.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,404.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,389.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,526.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,554.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,569.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,566.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,544.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,790.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,965.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,877.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,450.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,546.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,629.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,374.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,587.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,599.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,269.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,296.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,387.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,445.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,279.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,170.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2019: low JPY 1,474.22 per share, central JPY 1,655.84 per share, high JPY 1,897.60 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 1,604.62 per share, central JPY 1,794.24 per share, high JPY 2,046.65 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,891.56 per share, central JPY 2,099.44 per share, high JPY 2,376.17 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,461.88 per share, central JPY 3,362.10 per share, high JPY 3,886.29 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,086.00 per share, central JPY 4,162.71 per share, high JPY 4,789.67 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,034.30 per share, central JPY 5,447.49 per share, high JPY 6,308.14 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,242.66 per share, central JPY 5,535.95 per share, high JPY 6,370.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSKF.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.