# Traton SE (8TRA.XETRA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/8TRA.XETRA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 33.62 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 57.94 per share, central EUR 65.24 per share, high EUR 74.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 65.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.2% at the stated quote. About 18.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; DE 10-year bond 3.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.00×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.7%

- FY2018: 7.5%

- FY2019: 8.5%

- FY2020: 0.4%

- FY2021: 5.8%

- FY2022: 7.4%

- FY2023: 9.2%

- FY2024: 18.7%

- FY2025: 5.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.34×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 11B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 8.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.1 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 3.47×

- FY2022: 1.94×

- FY2023: 1.27×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.5% vs 9.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.78 to 4.90 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Per-share value growth: 9.9%

- Per-share value change: EUR 2.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 4.90

- Average buyback yield: 6.3%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: EUR 2.06

- FY2018: EUR 2.78

- FY2019: EUR 3.04

- FY2020: EUR -0.25

- FY2021: EUR 0.91

- FY2022: EUR 2.28

- FY2023: EUR 4.90

- FY2024: EUR 5.61

- FY2025: EUR 3.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.73×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: 2.2%

- FY2019: 1.0%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: 3.1%

- FY2023: -0.2%

- FY2024: 0.7%

- FY2025: 0.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.5% a year for ten years · "Traton Narrows Guidance as Profit Slumps" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales -7.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.771Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-09: Traton posts slight increase in Q2 deliveries but US tariffs weigh ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traton-posts-slight-increase-q2-093207764.html))

- 2025-09-26: Daimler Truck, Traton shares fall on Trump's truck tariffs ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/daimler-truck-traton-shares-fall-142832474.html))

- 2025-10-29: Traton Narrows Guidance as Profit Slumps ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/308ec2b0-d1e0-3f09-8020-0ef6676768f9/traton-narrows-guidance-as.html))

- 2026-03-04: Traton’s Earnings Fall as Trade Disruption Hits Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3545e277-9562-3267-9bdc-fa7b876e0da1/traton%E2%80%99s-earnings-fall-as.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: EUR 24B 

- FY2018: EUR 26B 

- FY2019: EUR 27B 

- FY2020: EUR 23B 

- FY2021: EUR 31B 

- FY2022: EUR 40B 

- FY2023: EUR 47B 

- FY2024: EUR 47B 

- FY2025: EUR 44B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 18.4% 

- FY2018: 19.2% 

- FY2019: 19.6% 

- FY2020: 15.3% 

- FY2021: 18.1% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 19.7% 

- FY2024: 21.3% 

- FY2025: 19.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are EUR 44.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2025: revenue 44052000000; grossProfit 8421000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 8TRA.XETRA: Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.1% to 21.3% during 2023–25; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.08665550691046442],[2018,0.07508746377055302],[2019,0.08493513287977153],[2020,0.0036234428086070213],[2021,0.058211479842794976],[2022,0.07414473161485115],[2023,0.09225442482215256],[2024,0.18678039297030488],[2025,0.05097477630051319]]; median 0.07508746377055302. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1265000000; owner earnings 1706000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1384000000; owner earnings 1905000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1464000000; owner earnings 2256000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1311000000; owner earnings 1007000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1599000000; owner earnings 1587000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1909000000; owner earnings 2214000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2209000000; owner earnings 3105000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2741000000; owner earnings 2798800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2796000000; owner earnings 1579000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,3250000000],[2018,3250000000],[2019,3250000000],[2020,501000000],[2021,135000000],[2022,250000000],[2023,350000000],[2024,750000000],[2025,850000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 87.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 8TRA.XETRA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 87.52499999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://annualreport.traton.com/2025/en/assets/downloads/TRA_GB25_EN.pdf (filed ); ay prompt unexpected, short-term responses from the markets.
International’s business in North America gives the TRATON GROUP access to a large, high-margin part of the global transportation market. This opens
additional growth potential for the TRATON GROUP and ensures a better balance between regional market developments in the cyclical commercial vehicle
industry. In addition, International Motors has substantial growth opportunities in its primary North American markets if the International brand can progressively restore its market share to the levels seen in the past. However, increased tariffs or other protectionist measures introduced by the USA, or any
retaliatory measures may have a significant influence on this market development, which is why the TRATON GROUP is monitoring them closely.
The TRATON GROUP is subject to intense competition, which may increase further in the future, e.g., as a result of new competitors entering primary markets. TRATON GROUP’s future success depends on the Group’s ability to address the key factors of competition in the commercial vehicle industry. These
are, in particular, its innovative capacity, which has a positive effect on the total cost of ownership of TRATON GROUP products, the ability to address specific
customer needs with tailored solutions such as after-sales and financing ser

[Noncontiguous filing excerpt]

ons that drive major trends
in the industry (i.e., alternative drives, connectivity, and autonomous driving). If the TRATON GROUP fails to successfully compete in changing markets, this
may result in pricing pressure, loss of sales revenue, and lower margins.
The TRATON GROUP can address the fluctuation in the demand for its products with flexible production and labor concepts, among other measures. Furthermore, the international footprint of the TRATON GROUP helps to buffer market volatility that is limited to specific regions, at least to some extent. As a
further option, we may implement structural adjustments if a market downturn cannot be addressed by temporary measures. Such adjustments may involve substantial nonrecurring expenses.

Operational risks
The TRATON GROUP’s future success depends on its ability to correctly assess and respond to the industry’s major trends with innovative, commercially
attractive products, technologies, and services. Furthermore, growing climate and environmental awareness, increasingly strict energy efficiency and exhaust emissions regulations have resulted in a shift towards the development of commercial vehicles with alternative drive systems, and vehicles powered
by alternative fuels or electricity. Timely innovations in disruptive trends like autonomous driving, digital connectivity, and electric powertrains provide

 86

TRATON GROUP 20

[Noncontiguous filing excerpt]

alternative drives, connectivity, and autonomous driving). If the TRATON GROUP fai

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:50.825Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.13168336762036248. Price 33.62; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2019-06: EUR 26.45 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 24.99 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 22.60 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 24.45 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 22.98 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 24.86 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 23.92 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 22.99 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 19.13 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 12.74 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 13.76 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 15.14 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 17.39 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 16.09 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 17.14 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 16.98 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 16.67 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 21.95 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 22.61 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 22.59 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 23.05 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 23.00 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 23.74 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 27.40 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 26.74 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 26.46 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 25.00 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 22.20 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 22.30 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 20.80 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 22.14 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 21.16 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 18.35 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 16.87 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 15.93 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 17.15 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 13.96 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 15.17 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 14.10 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 12.24 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 12.63 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 15.21 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 14.13 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 15.84 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 15.47 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 18.03 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 20.92 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 18.79 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 19.60 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 19.87 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 18.99 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 19.93 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 18.59 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 19.77 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 21.32 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 22.72 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 24.48 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 33.34 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 33.35 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 32.75 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 30.55 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 29.20 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 29.90 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 29.40 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 29.40 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 28.70 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 27.95 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 29.90 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 36.30 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 31.10 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 28.90 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 31.12 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 27.52 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 30.14 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 31.60 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 27.28 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 27.84 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 29.36 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 30.50 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 32.94 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 36.04 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 30.82 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 32.28 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 33.76 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 33.18 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 40.72 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 38.42 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 35.06 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 33.14 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2021: low EUR 51.01 per share, central EUR 57.44 per share, high EUR 66.01 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 51.20 per share, central EUR 57.87 per share, high EUR 66.76 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 57.93 per share, central EUR 65.69 per share, high EUR 76.01 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 61.89 per share, central EUR 69.74 per share, high EUR 80.20 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 57.86 per share, central EUR 65.14 per share, high EUR 74.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:36.589Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.