# Tobu Railway (9001.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9001.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:51.793Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,830.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,000.51 per share, central JPY 2,397.19 per share, high JPY 2,767.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,397.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:51.793Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: -0.03×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.9%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: 3.4%

- FY2021: -0.9%

- FY2022: 1.3%

- FY2023: 3.1%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 3.9%

- FY2026: 3.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.72×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 142B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 198B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.12×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: -0.12×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.8% vs 3.9%

- Per-share earnings: 168.79 to 252.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -15.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Market cap gain: JPY -43B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 167B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -15.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 84.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 168.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 252.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 4.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 308B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 168.79

- FY2018: JPY 168.87

- FY2019: JPY 132.65

- FY2020: JPY 168.84

- FY2021: JPY -119.67

- FY2022: JPY 64.49

- FY2023: JPY 140.06

- FY2024: JPY 232.99

- FY2025: JPY 252.99

- FY2026: JPY 282.92

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.92×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -3.7%

- FY2020: -4.0%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -4.1%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -2.2%

- FY2026: -2.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Aug 2023 · sales +3.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.824Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 569B 

- FY2018: JPY 570B 

- FY2019: JPY 618B 

- FY2020: JPY 654B 

- FY2021: JPY 496B 

- FY2022: JPY 506B 

- FY2023: JPY 615B 

- FY2024: JPY 636B 

- FY2025: JPY 631B 

- FY2026: JPY 655B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 30.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2023: 28.3% 

- FY2024: 30.4% 

- FY2025: 31.3% 

- FY2026: 30.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 655.4 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 655435000000; grossProfit 202190000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.4% to 31.3% during 2024–26; it earns 3.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9001.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9001.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.3%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9001.T (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 30.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.03862847276633233],[2018,0.03646806715897726],[2019,0.038151682094198905],[2020,0.03434344092515072],[2021,-0.008724386045966839],[2022,0.013289387536456164],[2023,0.030765556990741242],[2024,0.04209544134160198],[2025,0.03908244681231591],[2026,0.03703853562791096]]; median 0.03675330139344411. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 96.2% of cash earnings; earns 2.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 66990000000; owner earnings 21927000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 1465769934.3260193; upkeep 83624230065.67398; owner earnings 4899769934.326019. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2991507670711974.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 25522000000; upkeep 53477000000; owner earnings 28024000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9107193833856694.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 38279000000; upkeep 55442000000; owner earnings 35530000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.07737123557557.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 53984000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 15039000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 3908000000; upkeep 53354000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 29179000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.13393193735220535.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 30018000000; upkeep 52916000000; owner earnings 48164000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6232455776098331.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 53364000000; upkeep 55213000000; cash acquisitions 123000000; owner earnings 55620000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9616504854368932.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.027120681245715858, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,6431000000],[2018,7491000000],[2019,7390000000],[2020,7920000000],[2021,6272000000],[2022,4184000000],[2023,5223000000],[2024,8256000000],[2025,11694000000],[2026,12849000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 10470000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0546736262108406. Price 2830.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.026216959343036257 → FY2026 282.92. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,740.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,900.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,865.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,875.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,820.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,825.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,955.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,920.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,040.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,090.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,320.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,575.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,640.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,665.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,205.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,490.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,375.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,390.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,290.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,100.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,135.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,250.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,963.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,070.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,110.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,195.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,140.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,160.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,140.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,110.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,260.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,500.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,625.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,005.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,955.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,870.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,220.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,770.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,665.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,820.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,565.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,946.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,245.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,955.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,130.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,075.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,947.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,030.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,976.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,810.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,787.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,872.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,836.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,871.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 3,015.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,831.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,565.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,622.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,681.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,825.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,979.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,923.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,887.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,150.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,295.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,410.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,440.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,080.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 3,045.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 3,040.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 3,170.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,465.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,650.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,858.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,761.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,993.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,842.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,624.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,655.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,789.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,919.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,827.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,779.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,135.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,774.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,708.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,641.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,512.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,503.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,476.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,570.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,564.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,677.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,597.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,550.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,603.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,552.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,490.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,572.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,679.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,641.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,483.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,626.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,640.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,727.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,146.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,850.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,793.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,783.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,923.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,096.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,009.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,821.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,796.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,397.32 per share, central JPY 1,577.81 per share, high JPY 1,818.08 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,171.08 per share, central JPY 1,309.28 per share, high JPY 1,493.25 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 960.31 per share, central JPY 1,068.95 per share, high JPY 1,213.58 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,737.05 per share, central JPY 1,938.86 per share, high JPY 2,207.50 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,075.77 per share, central JPY 2,926.47 per share, high JPY 3,421.83 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,368.30 per share, central JPY 1,907.17 per share, high JPY 2,220.95 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,000.51 per share, central JPY 2,397.19 per share, high JPY 2,767.47 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8FK.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.