# Tokyu (9005.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9005.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:51.883Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,586.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,556.73 per share, central JPY 2,048.79 per share, high JPY 2,380.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,048.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:51.883Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.1% at the stated quote. About 12.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.61×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: -0.03×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.4%

- FY2018: 3.8%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: -1.4%

- FY2022: 1.1%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: 3.9%

- FY2026: 3.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 205B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 266B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -2.39×

- FY2023: 0.91×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.88×

- FY2026: 0.82×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.8% vs 3.8%

- Per-share earnings: 110.02 to 134.81 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -7.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 101B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 282B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -7.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 24.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 110.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 134.81

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.65

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 20B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 447B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 110.02

- FY2018: JPY 115.42

- FY2019: JPY 95.14

- FY2020: JPY 69.88

- FY2021: JPY -92.56

- FY2022: JPY 15.06

- FY2023: JPY 42.94

- FY2024: JPY 106.12

- FY2025: JPY 134.81

- FY2026: JPY 152.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.47×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -2.7%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -2.8%

- FY2026: -1.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · sales +3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.829Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 1.12T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.14T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.16T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.16T 

- FY2021: JPY 936B 

- FY2022: JPY 879B 

- FY2023: JPY 931B 

- FY2024: JPY 1.04T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.05T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.09T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 31.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2023: 28.2% 

- FY2024: 31.0% 

- FY2025: 31.7% 

- FY2026: 31.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 1086179000000; grossProfit 341469000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 31% to 31.7% during 2024–26; it earns 3.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9005.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9005.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 31.7%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9005.T (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 31.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04441473195949011],[2018,0.037854616433468796],[2019,0.03294882113338014],[2020,0.024866025389372926],[2021,-0.013596926778853446],[2022,0.011097904217545683],[2023,0.014881190865157618],[2024,0.03219336340791545],[2025,0.03868756316597103],[2026,0.03800518286196744]]; median 0.03257109227064779. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 80.3% of cash earnings; earns 3.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2017: growth capex 37264923505.1924; upkeep 102906076494.8076; owner earnings 37365923505.1924. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9972970024416508.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2023: growth capex 69372000000; upkeep 82973000000; cash acquisitions 8950000000; owner earnings 23618000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.316199508849183.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 27352000000; upkeep 86745000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 61965000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4414104736544824.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 32286799926.216858; upkeep 94460200073.78314; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 70040799926.21686. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4609713190059047.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 57295962099.67499; upkeep 102028037900.32501; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 71346962099.67499. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.803060991155165.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Incremental return on capital 0.03878572406339586, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,11080000000],[2018,10973000000],[2019,12192000000],[2020,13404000000],[2021,12697000000],[2022,7561000000],[2023,9076000000],[2024,9128000000],[2025,12606000000],[2026,15570000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: cash repurchases 10008000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 90.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.008391357716910242. Price 1586.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.1990036855671421 → FY2026 124.75537181926839. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,708.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,718.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,662.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,664.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,576.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,596.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,628.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,714.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,623.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,593.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,798.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,824.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,713.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,658.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,841.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,934.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,908.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,922.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,078.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,976.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,795.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,860.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,887.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,933.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,812.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,926.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,912.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,899.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,028.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,051.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,159.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,019.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,932.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,656.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,700.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,624.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,708.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,517.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,172.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,418.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,363.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,235.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,267.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,281.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,228.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,464.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,474.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,405.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,466.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,511.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,461.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,666.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,602.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,528.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,519.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,532.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,592.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,591.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,462.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,598.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,626.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,659.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,647.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,716.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,749.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,663.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,668.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,640.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,918.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,802.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,734.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,804.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,840.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,724.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,700.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,735.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,721.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,732.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,863.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,842.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,868.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,835.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,772.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,821.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,782.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,853.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,887.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,750.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,688.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,774.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,733.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,685.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,738.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,714.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,706.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,860.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,804.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,716.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,823.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,830.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,745.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,997.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,861.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,664.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,597.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,675.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,747.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,660.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,613.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,570.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2025: low JPY 678.88 per share, central JPY 931.39 per share, high JPY 1,081.49 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,556.73 per share, central JPY 2,048.79 per share, high JPY 2,380.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE63.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.