# Odakyu Electric Railway (9007.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9007.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:51.969Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,735.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 771.59 per share, central JPY 865.36 per share, high JPY 990.20 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 865.36 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:51.969Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.73×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: -0.06×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.6%

- FY2018: 3.7%

- FY2019: 3.9%

- FY2020: 2.7%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: 1.9%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 3.5%

- FY2026: 3.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.58×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 129B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 224B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -0.99×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.42×

- FY2026: -0.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.7% vs 3.5%

- Per-share earnings: 76.27 to 147.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY -213B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 191B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 8.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 71.24

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 76.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 147.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 9.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 292B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 72.31

- FY2018: JPY 81.36

- FY2019: JPY 90.11

- FY2020: JPY 55.08

- FY2021: JPY -109.60

- FY2022: JPY 33.36

- FY2023: JPY 112.11

- FY2024: JPY 225.28

- FY2025: JPY 147.51

- FY2026: JPY 108.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.60×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.2%

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -3.1%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -5.0%

- FY2022: -2.8%

- FY2023: -1.7%

- FY2024: 0.8%

- FY2025: -0.3%

- FY2026: -1.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 30% since Oct 2021 · sales -0.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.832Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -0.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIM7.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 523B 

- FY2018: JPY 525B 

- FY2019: JPY 527B 

- FY2020: JPY 534B 

- FY2021: JPY 386B 

- FY2022: JPY 359B 

- FY2023: JPY 395B 

- FY2024: JPY 410B 

- FY2025: JPY 423B 

- FY2026: JPY 419B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 29.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIM7.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2023: 27.4% 

- FY2024: 31.3% 

- FY2025: 29.8% 

- FY2026: 29.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 418.7 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIM7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 418732000000; grossProfit 122312000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 29.2% to 31.3% during 2024–26; it earns 3.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9007.T (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.3%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9007.T (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.8%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9007.T (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 29.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.03619561839948054],[2018,0.03742363181006801],[2019,0.03904608690377174],[2020,0.026686207488972703],[2021,-0.019030741806666203],[2022,0.003939060212812486],[2023,0.019095471764346575],[2024,0.041748817230118584],[2025,0.03529980889687502],[2026,0.03418052541361073]]; median 0.034740167155242876. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 3151192791.9990234; upkeep 61836807208.00098; owner earnings 12838192791.999023. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24545454668377464.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 3919756910.691284; upkeep 69025243089.30872; owner earnings 10169756910.691284. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3854327045487699.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 159000000; upkeep 47866000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 40736000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.003903181461115475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 14546000000; upkeep 45785000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 81524000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1784259849860164.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 33900812159.61992; upkeep 74228187840.38008; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 21683812159.61992. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.563415690473042.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2017,6504000000],[2018,7220000000],[2019,7223000000],[2020,7948000000],[2021,3656000000],[2022,3645000000],[2023,3640000000],[2024,11637000000],[2025,12095000000],[2026,17312000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIM7.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: cash repurchases 5000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1363643611929658. Price 1735.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 76.27 → FY2026 -8.395110789980732. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,237.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,313.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,237.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,166.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,162.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,266.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,185.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,130.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,135.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,210.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,385.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,410.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,400.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,182.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,153.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,361.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,355.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,378.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,364.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,403.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,688.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,386.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,545.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,417.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,445.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,601.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,683.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,614.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,680.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,637.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,438.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,410.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,588.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,643.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,691.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,551.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,436.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,084.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,372.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,373.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,689.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,651.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,196.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,623.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,644.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,513.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,165.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,240.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,035.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,115.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,025.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,955.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,827.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,806.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,602.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,564.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,593.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,463.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,187.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,136.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,021.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,894.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,037.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,976.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,701.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,825.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,864.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,769.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,802.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,711.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,702.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,651.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,898.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,032.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,925.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,077.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,166.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,234.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,141.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,079.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,151.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,260.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,105.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,080.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,775.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,646.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,556.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,521.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,698.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,599.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,604.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,452.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,475.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,484.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,478.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,577.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,605.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,633.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,685.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,664.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,769.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,708.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,792.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,645.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,617.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,667.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,765.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,783.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,718.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,725.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 361.18 per share, central JPY 404.15 per share, high JPY 461.36 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 852.08 per share, central JPY 1,102.41 per share, high JPY 1,277.42 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 771.59 per share, central JPY 865.36 per share, high JPY 990.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YIM7.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.