# Keisei Electric Railway (9009.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9009.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:52.060Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,366.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 663.52 per share, central JPY 747.08 per share, high JPY 858.31 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 747.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:52.060Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.98×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: -0.09×

- FY2022: -0.02×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 4.3%

- FY2019: 4.2%

- FY2020: 3.4%

- FY2021: -2.2%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: 1.3%

- FY2024: 2.6%

- FY2025: 3.3%

- FY2026: 3.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 180B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 228B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 2.57×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 0.94×

- FY2025: 0.92×

- FY2026: 0.50×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.3% vs 3.2%

- Per-share earnings: 205.66 to 143.46 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 11.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 421B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 264B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 11.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -4.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY -62.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 205.66

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 143.46

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 3.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 337B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 210.96

- FY2018: JPY 205.66

- FY2019: JPY 228.29

- FY2020: JPY 178.07

- FY2021: JPY -59.88

- FY2022: JPY -8.78

- FY2023: JPY 53.91

- FY2024: JPY 174.86

- FY2025: JPY 143.46

- FY2026: JPY 99.59

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -1.7%

- FY2019: -0.8%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -3.7%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: 2.6%

- FY2025: 2.6%

- FY2026: 0.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 41% since Feb 2024 · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.839Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YL5Y.pdf; observed 2026-06-26.

- FY2017: JPY 246B 

- FY2018: JPY 255B 

- FY2019: JPY 262B 

- FY2020: JPY 275B 

- FY2021: JPY 208B 

- FY2022: JPY 214B 

- FY2023: JPY 252B 

- FY2024: JPY 297B 

- FY2025: JPY 319B 

- FY2026: JPY 332B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 26.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YL5Y.pdf; observed 2026-06-26.

- FY2023: 21.5% 

- FY2024: 25.2% 

- FY2025: 27.8% 

- FY2026: 26.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 332.4 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YL5Y.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: revenue 332424000000; grossProfit 88651000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.2% to 27.8% during 2024–26; it earns 3.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9009.T (filed 2026-06-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.2%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9009.T (filed 2026-06-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 27.8%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9009.T (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 26.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04563163611250243],[2018,0.0431808255216612],[2019,0.0417232930415363],[2020,0.03401713548961103],[2021,-0.02209673821444505],[2022,-0.006277063485758633],[2023,0.012522402992768258],[2024,0.026066061220399155],[2025,0.03273117708343865],[2026,0.03239898078110581]]; median 0.03256507893227223. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 3.8% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 24443000000; owner earnings 31174000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2018: growth capex 6392000000; upkeep 25531000000; owner earnings 30491000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20963563018595652.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2019: growth capex 12924279142.883354; upkeep 40589720857.116646; owner earnings 18773279142.883354. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6884401517985599.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2020: growth capex 18218000000; upkeep 29085000000; owner earnings 24026000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7582618829601265.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2023: growth capex 1216000000; upkeep 31616000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 20294000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05991918793732138.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2024: growth capex 21183000000; upkeep 33352000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 82264000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.25750024311971215.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); FY2025: growth capex 30597000000; upkeep 32600000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 64503000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.474350030231152.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YL5Y.pdf (filed 2026-06-26); FY2026: growth capex 31389864952.189407; upkeep 52624135047.81059; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 23874864952.189407. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.31476617836579.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Incremental return on capital 0.03789141685958456, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,2232000000],[2018,2576000000],[2019,2662000000],[2020,3083000000],[2021,2903000000],[2022,2903000000],[2023,2887000000],[2024,4138000000],[2025,7219000000],[2026,11668000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 11.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11556772215824418. Price 1366; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 160.4879149595122 → FY2026 49.51164651497289. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 904.67 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 945.67 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 890.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 887.67 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 861.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 883.67 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 941.33 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,000.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,006.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 998.33 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,038.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,136.67 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,200.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,206.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,231.67 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,166.67 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,090.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,190.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,231.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,268.33 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,238.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,243.33 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,333.33 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,158.33 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,226.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,146.67 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,150.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,266.67 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,340.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,296.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,353.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,308.33 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,338.33 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,393.33 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,481.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,481.67 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,503.33 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,413.33 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,323.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,151.67 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,040.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,086.67 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,178.33 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,125.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 855.67 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,040.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 989.67 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 971.67 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,168.33 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,163.33 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,181.67 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,280.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,206.67 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,136.67 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,125.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,181.67 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,081.67 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,128.33 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,238.33 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,218.33 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,036.67 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,036.67 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,075.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,073.33 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,138.33 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,065.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,120.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,246.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,210.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,313.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,316.67 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,305.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,251.67 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,260.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,311.67 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,358.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,598.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,783.33 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,985.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,966.67 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,859.33 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,726.67 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,885.67 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,986.67 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,221.33 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,232.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,331.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,052.67 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,964.33 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,881.33 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,725.33 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,499.67 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,533.67 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,423.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,330.67 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,497.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,418.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,485.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,433.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,347.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,478.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,385.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,351.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,275.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,361.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,371.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,228.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,267.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,289.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,221.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,356.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,175.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,112.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,091.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,161.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,279.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,364.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,335.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,323.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,048.85 per share, central JPY 2,313.74 per share, high JPY 2,666.36 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 441.90 per share, central JPY 496.02 per share, high JPY 568.07 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 374.39 per share, central JPY 420.22 per share, high JPY 481.23 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 455.49 per share, central JPY 510.14 per share, high JPY 582.88 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 672.61 per share, central JPY 744.29 per share, high JPY 839.73 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 668.15 per share, central JPY 747.51 per share, high JPY 853.16 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 663.52 per share, central JPY 747.08 per share, high JPY 858.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YL5Y.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.