# East Japan Railway (9020.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9020.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:52.239Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,423.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,325.40 per share, central JPY 2,621.54 per share, high JPY 3,015.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,621.54 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:52.239Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.02×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: -0.29×

- FY2022: -0.08×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 25.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.1%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: 6.0%

- FY2020: 4.6%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: 3.6%

- FY2025: 3.9%

- FY2026: 4.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 673B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 673B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -0.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.1% vs 3.9%

- Per-share earnings: 713.96 to 198.29 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 11.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.84T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 325B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 11.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -14.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY -515.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 713.96

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 198.29

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 66B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.16T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 713.96

- FY2018: JPY 749.20

- FY2019: JPY 773.26

- FY2020: JPY 174.97

- FY2021: JPY -510.64

- FY2022: JPY -83.90

- FY2023: JPY 87.79

- FY2024: JPY 173.82

- FY2025: JPY 198.29

- FY2026: JPY 219.42

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -5.0%

- FY2026: -4.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years · sales +6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.842Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC7N.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: JPY 2.88T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.95T 

- FY2019: JPY 3.00T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.95T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.76T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.98T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.41T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.73T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.89T 

- FY2026: JPY 3.08T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 36.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC7N.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2023: 29.8% 

- FY2024: 35.4% 

- FY2025: 35.7% 

- FY2026: 36.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC7N.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 3084679000000; grossProfit 1131788000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.4% to 36.7% during 2024–26; it earns 4% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9020.T (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.4%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9020.T (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.7%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/9020.T (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06136544446568539],[2018,0.06164404589760473],[2019,0.059628260600078455],[2020,0.04564092851863887],[2021,-0.06909814329849427],[2022,-0.01936944473025236],[2023,0.016395315344384213],[2024,0.03553429275065467],[2025,0.039301748689399035],[2026,0.040349747538448465]]; median 0.03982574811392375. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2017: growth capex 29762149426.44336; upkeep 551908850573.5566; owner earnings 90145149426.44336. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3301580796727025.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2018: growth capex 152101350259.0586; upkeep 426054649740.9414; owner earnings 230899350259.0586. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6587344229787039.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2019: growth capex 114262570132.34357; upkeep 534774429867.65643; owner earnings 129163570132.34357. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8846346536819001.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2023: growth capex 165698000000; upkeep 389885000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 99232000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.6698040954530797.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: growth capex 322740000000; upkeep 392172000000; cash acquisitions 2660000000; owner earnings 196449000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.656409551588453.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: growth capex 364731000000; upkeep 406202000000; cash acquisitions 2945000000; owner earnings 224285000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.6393249660030764.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC7N.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: growth capex 459331000000; upkeep 428730000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 247846000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8532919635580158.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,50781000000],[2018,52263000000],[2019,55585000000],[2020,59764000000],[2021,50032000000],[2022,37760000000],[2023,37759000000],[2024,39647000000],[2025,61631000000],[2026,78184000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 10%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.050728537851770894. Price 3423; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 625.82 → FY2026 219.41999999999996. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,255.33 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,366.67 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,410.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,385.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,231.33 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,318.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 3,538.33 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,581.67 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,450.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,361.67 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,461.67 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,656.67 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,621.67 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,665.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,615.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,353.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,287.33 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,496.67 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,585.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,538.33 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,480.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,351.67 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,518.33 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,291.67 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,440.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,237.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,553.33 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,560.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,488.33 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,436.67 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,360.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,335.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,371.67 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,436.67 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,283.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,356.67 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,286.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,233.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,773.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,725.33 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,624.33 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,816.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,491.33 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,023.67 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,299.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,160.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,819.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,162.67 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,295.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,296.67 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,619.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,613.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,493.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,550.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,642.33 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,426.67 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,477.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,614.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,362.67 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,328.67 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,357.67 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,181.33 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,270.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,370.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,273.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,204.67 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,312.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,313.33 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,413.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,473.67 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,680.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,603.67 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,506.67 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,413.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,302.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,445.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,601.33 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,562.67 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,662.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,684.33 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,744.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,851.67 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,624.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,665.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,709.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,813.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,955.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,921.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,893.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,729.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,664.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,825.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,801.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,848.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,070.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,920.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,795.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,774.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,968.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,952.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,096.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,030.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,108.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,218.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,614.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,620.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,756.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,046.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,132.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,893.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,860.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,625.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,388.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,412.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,408.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,676.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,581.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,350.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,388.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,305.71 per share, central JPY 1,474.19 per share, high JPY 1,698.47 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 677.30 per share, central JPY 750.83 per share, high JPY 848.71 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,306.60 per share, central JPY 1,465.30 per share, high JPY 1,676.58 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,325.40 per share, central JPY 2,621.54 per share, high JPY 3,015.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC7N.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.