# Tokyo Gas (9531.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9531.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:12:02.186Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 6,030.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,680.20 per share, central JPY 6,411.48 per share, high JPY 7,384.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,411.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:12:02.186Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.5% at the stated quote. About 10.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.39×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.8%

- FY2018: 4.6%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: 3.1%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: 12.4%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: 3.3%

- FY2026: 5.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 803B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 843B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 19.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.37×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.7% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 164.12 to 401.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.40T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 562B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 13.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 236.97

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 164.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 401.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.04

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 680B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.15T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 115.09

- FY2018: JPY 164.12

- FY2019: JPY 187.60

- FY2020: JPY 97.86

- FY2021: JPY 112.26

- FY2022: JPY 217.67

- FY2023: JPY 646.99

- FY2024: JPY 401.09

- FY2025: JPY 192.22

- FY2026: JPY 654.76

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.3%

- FY2018: -7.9%

- FY2019: -2.3%

- FY2020: -10.4%

- FY2021: -7.5%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -5.8%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -7.5%

- FY2026: -5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · sales +7.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.923Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 1.59T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.78T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.96T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.93T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.77T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.15T 

- FY2023: JPY 3.29T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.66T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.64T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.83T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 17.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: 33.7% 

- FY2018: 32.3% 

- FY2019: 28.3% 

- FY2020: 30.2% 

- FY2021: 31.3% 

- FY2022: 18.0% 

- FY2023: 21.1% 

- FY2024: 17.7% 

- FY2025: 15.4% 

- FY2026: 17.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 2834749000000; grossProfit 507255000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.4% to 17.9% during 2024–26; it earns 3.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 17.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.028225792816102935],[2018,0.045743483403338156],[2019,0.03744820591362002],[2020,0.035915844025085956],[2021,0.030707837875381866],[2022,0.04054344301779069],[2023,0.12436920317814372],[2024,0.05436876862123719],[2025,0.03271712886971385],[2026,0.05740148117350722]]; median 0.038995824465705355. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 19.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 195460000000; owner earnings 17146000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2018: growth capex 44216000000; upkeep 161093000000; owner earnings 73461000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6018976055321872.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2019: growth capex 50061000000; upkeep 157574000000; owner earnings 82942000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6035663475681802.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 208377000000; owner earnings 14801000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2022: growth capex 164000000; upkeep 196810000000; owner earnings 93019000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.001763080660940238.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 184941000000; owner earnings 298123000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 214144000000; owner earnings 157903000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 306069000000; owner earnings 27221000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 31348000000; upkeep 264299000000; owner earnings 226857000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13818396611080988.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Incremental return on capital 0.19789648825719303, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,26969000000],[2018,25187000000],[2019,24936000000],[2020,27839000000],[2021,26449000000],[2022,26424000000],[2023,29474000000],[2024,27515000000],[2025,28531000000],[2026,33887000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: cash repurchases 200071000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.011606700352598864. Price 6030; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,493.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,644.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,499.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,549.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,533.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,587.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,875.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,921.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,925.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,916.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,758.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,820.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,635.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,578.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,593.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,685.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,821.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,932.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,965.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,940.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,723.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,633.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,792.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,781.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,924.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,785.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,858.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,993.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,827.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,697.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,537.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,721.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,685.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,724.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,646.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,644.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,651.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,408.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,183.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,556.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,358.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,570.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,580.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,230.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,356.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,406.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,365.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,344.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,384.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,289.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,202.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,462.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,213.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,166.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,097.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,078.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,116.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,079.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,979.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,945.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,062.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,315.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,348.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,232.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,491.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,511.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,807.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,611.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,612.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,451.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,657.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,526.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,585.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,719.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,628.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,496.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,791.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,969.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,143.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,225.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,377.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,391.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,379.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,427.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,238.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,401.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,279.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,532.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,539.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,525.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,455.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,302.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,644.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,337.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,769.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,510.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,370.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,392.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,734.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,763.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,743.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,845.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,792.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 5,049.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 5,632.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 5,264.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 5,402.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 6,332.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 6,205.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 6,846.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,656.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 7,417.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,670.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,380.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,121.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 6,219.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 6,186.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 6,190.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 6,019.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 753.37 per share, central JPY 818.54 per share, high JPY 905.29 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,525.05 per share, central JPY 2,830.34 per share, high JPY 3,236.74 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 4,393.28 per share, central JPY 4,875.90 per share, high JPY 5,518.36 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,797.80 per share, central JPY 4,217.61 per share, high JPY 4,776.46 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,720.02 per share, central JPY 4,164.43 per share, high JPY 4,756.04 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 5,680.20 per share, central JPY 6,411.48 per share, high JPY 7,384.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YH8W.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.