# Nongfu Spring (9633.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9633.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 41.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 16.78 per share, central HKD 18.84 per share, high HKD 21.58 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 18.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.29×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: 0.34×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 0.37×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 57.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 48.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 59.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 60.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 48.4%

- FY2020: 55.9%

- FY2021: 78.4%

- FY2022: 62.2%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 47.4%

- FY2025: 57.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 52B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 56B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 65.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.70×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 55.9% vs 57.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.48 to 1.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Per-share value growth: 22.3%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 55.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 57.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: CNY 0.46

- FY2020: CNY 0.48

- FY2021: CNY 0.64

- FY2022: CNY 0.76

- FY2023: CNY 1.07

- FY2024: CNY 1.08

- FY2025: CNY 1.41

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.71×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -14.2%

- FY2020: -12.2%

- FY2021: -12.9%

- FY2022: -9.0%

- FY2023: -10.6%

- FY2024: 2.1%

- FY2025: -7.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 23% since Sep 2025 · sales +22.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.996Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +22.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: CNY 24B 

- FY2020: CNY 23B 

- FY2021: CNY 30B 

- FY2022: CNY 33B 

- FY2023: CNY 43B 

- FY2024: CNY 43B 

- FY2025: CNY 53B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 60.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: 55.4% 

- FY2020: 59.0% 

- FY2021: 59.5% 

- FY2022: 57.4% 

- FY2023: 59.5% 

- FY2024: 58.1% 

- FY2025: 60.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages non-alcoholic; annual sales are CNY 52.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2025: revenue 52552910000; grossProfit 31808104000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9633.HK: Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company offers edible ice; ready-to-drink tea beverages; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other products, including beverage products, such as soda water beverage, coffee beverage, and plant-based beverages, as well as agricultural products comprising fresh fruits. It also provides supply chain management services, as well as engages in the beverage and IT research and development; and refined tea processing activities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yangshengtang Co., Ltd.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 58.1% to 60.5% during 2023–25; it earns 57.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 59.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 60.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.48356564515221817],[2020,0.5586654276468485],[2021,0.7843228995582799],[2022,0.6224806438586533],[2023,1.4881173960352623],[2024,0.4743686029314369],[2025,0.578594773432414]]; median 0.578594773432414. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 20.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 65.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3313058000; owner earnings 3361810600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2279262000; owner earnings 4912537400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2021: growth capex 200281000; upkeep 2287881000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7143789000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.028035682464865635.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2022: growth capex 1808645476.8592691; upkeep 2543396523.140731; owner earnings 8291664076.859269. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21812816584151237.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2023: growth capex 2231308000; upkeep 2631442000; owner earnings 12061642000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1849920599533629.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2024: growth capex 112905624.25753498; upkeep 6293086375.742465; owner earnings 8535225824.257535. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.013228194142989352.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2025: growth capex 3308444286; upkeep 3215679000; owner earnings 15847734200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20876449871300845.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); Incremental return on capital 0.650594153220225, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,9597600000],[2020,7979760000],[2021,1911899000],[2022,5059118000],[2023,7646313000],[2024,8434850000],[2025,8326100038]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/9633.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 215817987 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 64.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9633.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 64.42099999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.920Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15320701193121644. Price 41.38; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2020-09: HKD 35.00 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 35.50 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 42.50 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 54.90 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 58.55 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 51.50 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 38.75 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 41.15 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 45.90 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 38.95 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 40.00 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 41.15 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 39.65 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 39.45 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 44.70 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 51.45 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 47.00 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 48.95 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 41.75 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 42.00 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 43.80 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 45.05 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 47.00 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 46.85 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 45.55 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 39.45 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 45.10 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 44.10 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 44.25 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 44.00 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 45.15 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 42.40 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 42.00 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 43.25 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 45.30 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 44.05 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 45.00 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 44.55 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 44.60 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 45.15 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 42.35 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 44.40 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 42.25 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 46.20 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 41.60 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 37.05 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 30.45 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 28.40 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 34.20 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 28.90 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 33.10 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 33.95 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 36.55 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 34.70 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 33.75 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 35.80 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 38.40 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 40.10 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 45.45 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 49.98 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 53.90 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 51.60 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 48.82 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 46.84 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 47.94 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 47.40 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 46.92 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 46.80 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 42.80 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 39.62 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 43.78 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 43.02 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 39.84 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 41.38 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2023: low HKD 14.14 per share, central HKD 15.75 per share, high HKD 17.90 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 12.95 per share, central HKD 14.57 per share, high HKD 16.73 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 16.78 per share, central HKD 18.84 per share, high HKD 21.59 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:36.944Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.