# SoftBank Group (9984.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9984.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:12:10.801Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 4,852.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 8,416.80 per share, central JPY 8,416.80 per share, high JPY 8,416.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 8,416.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:12:10.801Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.2% at the stated quote. About 16.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: -0.08×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- FY2026: 0.89×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 51.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 8.3%

- FY2018: 8.9%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: 1.9%

- FY2021: 23.8%

- FY2022: -1.8%

- FY2023: 0.4%

- FY2024: 3.1%

- FY2025: 10.2%

- FY2026: 20.7%

### economics: fail

- Cash conversion uses consolidated free cash flow after all capital expenditure and consolidated net income (informational).

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.46×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: Yes

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY -2.37T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 5.19T

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.0%

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.9% vs 10.2%

- Per-share earnings: 116.69 to 195.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 11.65T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 4.37T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 6.6%

- Per-share value change: JPY 78.51

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 116.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 195.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.04

- Average buyback yield: 4.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 5.80T

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 11.15T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 160.88

- FY2018: JPY 116.69

- FY2019: JPY 158.52

- FY2020: JPY -119.63

- FY2021: JPY 654.90

- FY2022: JPY -254.64

- FY2023: JPY -163.09

- FY2024: JPY -42.75

- FY2025: JPY 195.20

- FY2026: JPY 873.51

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 8.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -0.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.56×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.3%

- FY2018: -0.2%

- FY2019: 0.7%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: 9.7%

- FY2022: -9.3%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: 2.1%

- FY2026: 8.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since May 2026 · sales +7.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.950Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes assets grow 6% yearly for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGH5.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 8.90T 

- FY2018: JPY 9.16T 

- FY2019: JPY 6.09T 

- FY2020: JPY 5.24T 

- FY2021: JPY 5.63T 

- FY2022: JPY 6.22T 

- FY2023: JPY 6.57T 

- FY2024: JPY 6.76T 

- FY2025: JPY 7.24T 

- FY2026: JPY 7.80T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 51.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGH5.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 38.5% 

- FY2018: 39.6% 

- FY2019: 41.5% 

- FY2020: 50.7% 

- FY2021: 51.1% 

- FY2022: 52.5% 

- FY2023: 50.7% 

- FY2024: 52.4% 

- FY2025: 51.8% 

- FY2026: 51.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are JPY 7.8 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGH5.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 7798650000000.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 93.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,46273000000],[2018,47918000000],[2019,47918000000],[2020,68659000000],[2021,86760000000],[2022,75847000000],[2023,70241000000],[2024,64356000000],[2025,64020000000],[2026,62909000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SFT.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 93241000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes assets grow 6% yearly for ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Price 4852; FX 1; reported NAV 7029; ten-year realization discounted at 0.1; required annual NAV growth 0.05997448183446563. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 839.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 970.63 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,087.63 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,045.25 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 982.75 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,055.25 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,125.38 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,137.13 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,119.75 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,115.25 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,135.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,243.38 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,185.63 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,115.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,122.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,111.88 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 993.75 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,062.63 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 970.63 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 996.63 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,157.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,287.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,433.75 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,131.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,190.75 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 913.13 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,065.75 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,285.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,343.13 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,444.38 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,281.25 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,291.25 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,407.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,206.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,060.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,047.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,063.25 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,189.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,131.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,253.25 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 947.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,158.25 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,208.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,362.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,648.75 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,649.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,617.25 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,698.25 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,818.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,014.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,027.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,473.75 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,332.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,471.25 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,064.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,943.75 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,709.25 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,545.25 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,620.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,541.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,507.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,358.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,252.75 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,281.25 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,389.75 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,317.25 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,344.75 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,308.75 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,401.25 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,390.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,225.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,411.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,536.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,379.25 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,295.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,273.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,368.75 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,693.25 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,810.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,636.25 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,583.75 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,531.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,505.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,573.25 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,197.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,235.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,978.75 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,260.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,597.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,290.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,101.25 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,106.75 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,374.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,234.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,296.25 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,352.75 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,068.25 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,869.75 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,903.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,628.75 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,952.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,057.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,671.25 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 6,766.25 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,206.25 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,400.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,253.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,089.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,555.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,219.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 7,491.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,963.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,260.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,200.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 6,430.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,424.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2026: low JPY 8,416.80 per share, central JPY 8,416.80 per share, high JPY 8,416.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YGH5.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

SoftBank Group

9984 · JP

Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Core30

Not a wonderful business

4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: JPY 4,852.00
Buy up to: JPY 8,416.80
Expected / yr: 16.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and margins varied 122.6% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 12.8%
Worst year: -7.8%
Latest · 2026: 88.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 8.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 0.4% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 8.6%
Worst year: -1.8%
Latest · 2026: 20.7%

Each $1 of consolidated profit left $-0.46 of cash over five years (minimum $0.80).

Filing signals · estimated likelihood

consolidated cash / profit: -0.46×
Passing bar: ≥ 0.80×

Per-share value rose from 116.69 to 195.2, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: JPY 137.61
Worst year: JPY -254.64
Latest · 2026: JPY 873.51

Profits lacked the required cash backing.

Sloan accruals

10y median: -0.2%
Worst year: 9.7%
Latest · 2026: 8.9%

Profit record · fail 4 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 29.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 460.07 JPY. 4 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price JPY 839.00; 2016-12 · Price JPY 970.63; 2017-01 · Price JPY 1087.63; 2017-02 · Price JPY 1045.25; 2017-03 · Price JPY 982.75; 2017-04 · Price JPY 1055.25; 2017-05 · Price JPY 1125.38; 2017-06 · Price JPY 1137.13; 2017-07 · Price JPY 1119.75; 2017-08 · Price JPY 1115.25; 2017-09 · Price JPY 1135.50; 2017-10 · Price JPY 1243.38; 2017-11 · Price JPY 1185.63; 2017-12 · Price JPY 1115.00; 2018-01 · Price JPY 1122.50; 2018-02 · Price JPY 1111.88; 2018-03 · Price JPY 993.75; 2018-04 · Price JPY 1062.63; 2018-05 · Price JPY 970.63; 2018-06 · Price JPY 996.63; 2018-07 · Price JPY 1157.50; 2018-08 · Price JPY 1287.50; 2018-09 · Price JPY 1433.75; 2018-10 · Price JPY 1131.00; 2018-11 · Price JPY 1190.75; 2018-12 · Price JPY 913.13; 2019-01 · Price JPY 1065.75; 2019-02 · Price JPY 1285.00; 2019-03 · Price JPY 1343.13; 2019-04 · Price JPY 1444.38; 2019-05 · Price JPY 1281.25; 2019-06 · Price JPY 1291.25; 2019-07 · Price JPY 1407.00; 2019-08 · Price JPY 1206.00; 2019-09 · Price JPY 1060.00; 2019-10 · Price JPY 1047.50; 2019-11 · Price JPY 1063.25; 2019-12 · Price JPY 1189.00; 2020-01 · Price JPY 1131.00; 2020-02 · Price JPY 1253.25; 2020-03 · Price JPY 947.00; 2020-04 · Price JPY 1158.25; 2020-05 · Price JPY 1208.00; 2020-06 · Price JPY 1362.50; 2020-07 · Price JPY 1648.75; 2020-08 · Price JPY 1649.50; 2020-09 · Price JPY 1617.25; 2020-10 · Price JPY 1698.25; 2020-11 · Price JPY 1818.00; 2020-12 · Price JPY 2014.50; 2021-01 · Price JPY 2027.00; 2021-02 · Price JPY 2473.75; 2021-03 · Price JPY 2332.50; 2021-04 · Price JPY 2471.25; 2021-05 · Price JPY 2064.00; 2021-06 · Price JPY 1943.75; 2021-07 · Price JPY 1709.25; 2021-08 · Price JPY 1545.25; 2021-09 · Price JPY 1620.00; 2021-10 · Price JPY 1541.00; 2021-11 · Price JPY 1507.50; 2021-12 · Price JPY 1358.50; 2022-01 · Price JPY 1252.75; 2022-02 · Price JPY 1281.25; 2022-03 · Price JPY 1389.75; 2022-04 · Price JPY 1317.25; 2022-05 · Price JPY 1344.75; 2022-06 · Price JPY 1308.75; 2022-07 · Price JPY 1401.25; 2022-08 · Price JPY 1390.50; 2022-09 · Price JPY 1225.00; 2022-10 · Price JPY 1600.00; 2022-11 · Price JPY 1488.00; 2022-12 · Price JPY 1411.00; 2023-01 · Price JPY 1536.00; 2023-02 · Price JPY 1379.25; 2023-03 · Price JPY 1295.50; 2023-04 · Price JPY 1273.50; 2023-05 · Price JPY 1368.75; 2023-06 · Price JPY 1693.25; 2023-07 · Price JPY 1810.50; 2023-08 · Price JPY 1636.25; 2023-09 · Price JPY 1583.75; 2023-10 · Price JPY 1531.00; 2023-11 · Price JPY 1505.00; 2023-12 · Price JPY 1573.25; 2024-01 · Price JPY 1615.00; 2024-02 · Price JPY 2197.50; 2024-03 · Price JPY 2235.50; 2024-04 · Price JPY 1978.75; 2024-05 · Price JPY 2260.50; 2024-06 · Price JPY 2597.50; 2024-07 · Price JPY 2290.50; 2024-08 · Price JPY 2101.25; 2024-09 · Price JPY 2106.75; 2024-10 · Price JPY 2374.50; 2024-11 · Price JPY 2234.00; 2024-12 · Price JPY 2296.25; 2025-01 · Price JPY 2352.75; 2025-02 · Price JPY 2068.25; 2025-03 · Price JPY 1869.75; 2025-04 · Price JPY 1791.00; 2025-05 · Price JPY 1903.50; 2025-06 · Price JPY 2628.75; 2025-07 · Price JPY 2952.50; 2025-08 · Price JPY 4057.50; 2025-09 · Price JPY 4671.25; 2025-10 · Price JPY 6766.25; 2025-11 · Price JPY 4206.25; 2025-12 · Price JPY 4400.00; 2026-01 · Price JPY 4253.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-02 · Price JPY 4089.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-03 · Price JPY 3555.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-04 · Price JPY 5219.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-05 · Price JPY 7491.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-06 · Price JPY 5963.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-07 · Price JPY 5260.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-08 · Price JPY 5200.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-09 · Price JPY 6430.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-10 · Price JPY 5424.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80; 2026-10 · Price JPY 4852.00 · Value 8416.80 · Buy at or below 8416.80

JPY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	JPY 8,416.80 – JPY 8,416.80
Buy at or below	Central value JPY 8,416.80
Discount to value	1 − 4852.00 / 8416.80 = 42.4%
Return / year	About 16.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	NAV JPY 7029.00/share; 12.0% total return reinvested for 10 years → JPY 21831.01/share at year 10.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueJPY 7.80T

Revenue

Owner earningsJPY 4.27T

Owner earnings

Operating margin88.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtJPY -19.32T

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares5.7B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·