# Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9992.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 145.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 80.89 per share, central HKD 90.04 per share, high HKD 102.22 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 90.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.47×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.36×

- FY2020: 0.29×

- FY2021: 0.26×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.46×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 68.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 66.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 63.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.9%

- FY2018: 68.4%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 71.8%

- FY2021: 38.9%

- FY2022: 16.4%

- FY2023: 36.5%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 19B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 354.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 1.21×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 68.4% vs 156.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.07 to 2.35 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Per-share value growth: 78.7%

- Per-share value change: CNY 2.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.35

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 68.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: CNY 0.00

- FY2018: CNY 0.07

- FY2019: CNY 0.39

- FY2020: CNY 0.41

- FY2021: CNY 0.62

- FY2022: CNY 0.35

- FY2023: CNY 0.81

- FY2024: CNY 2.35

- FY2025: CNY 9.58

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 6.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.61×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.85×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.5%

- FY2018: -20.4%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -2.0%

- FY2021: 1.0%

- FY2022: -5.2%

- FY2023: -9.2%

- FY2024: -13.0%

- FY2025: 6.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Aug 2025 · "Pop Mart shares sink despite revenue surge, as analysts say Labubu reliance worries investors" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +177.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.169Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-20: Labubu maker Pop Mart predicts $4 billion in 2025 revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labubu-maker-pop-mart-predicts-141839706.html))

- 2025-12-30: Pop Mart Shares Slide on Reports of Waning Labubu Reseller Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pop-mart-shares-slide-reports-121802471.html))

- 2026-03-25: Pop Mart shares sink despite revenue surge, as analysts say Labubu reliance worries investors ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/pop-mart-shares-sink-despite-140159202.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +177.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: CNY 158M 

- FY2018: CNY 515M 

- FY2019: CNY 1.7B 

- FY2020: CNY 2.5B 

- FY2021: CNY 4.5B 

- FY2022: CNY 4.6B 

- FY2023: CNY 6.3B 

- FY2024: CNY 13B 

- FY2025: CNY 36B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 72.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 47.6% 

- FY2018: 57.9% 

- FY2019: 64.8% 

- FY2020: 63.4% 

- FY2021: 61.4% 

- FY2022: 57.5% 

- FY2023: 61.3% 

- FY2024: 66.8% 

- FY2025: 72.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in leisure; annual sales are CNY 36.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2025: revenue 36159344000; grossProfit 26072210000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9992.HK: Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes. It sells its products through a network of retail stores and roboshops; online channels, including Tmall flagship store, DouYin, Pop Draw, and other online channels; and wholesale channels and others. The company also provides internet technology, customer, and technology development services; and operates playgrounds, as well as engages in investment and exhibition activities. Pop Mart International Group Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.3% to 72.1% during 2023–25; it earns 68.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 61.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 66.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.029074715412589176],[2018,0.6838374771024813],[2019,1.1241863366129006],[2020,0.7177778188973754],[2021,0.3894424426847832],[2022,0.1637867014009026],[2023,0.36527986844654053],[2024,1.5612366582882715],[2025,1.606689821131643]]; median 0.6838374771024813. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.3% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 11240475; owner earnings 13830525. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 36861837; owner earnings 105051163. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 104820528; owner earnings 418320872. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 211388219; owner earnings 499604981. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 328229204; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 836821396. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 354964616; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 577296184. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 392722915; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1202644485. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 526146994; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3269236806. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); FY2025: growth capex 34119854; upkeep 1107096468; owner earnings 12775689000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002670686019360678.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,80000000],[2018,80000000],[2019,79900549],[2020,356971462],[2021,205380759],[2022,224734099],[2023,121688606],[2024,384933820],[2025,1055251305]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9992.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.048Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09911864496065081. Price 145.5; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2020-12: HKD 81.35 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 74.00 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 89.90 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 59.35 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 64.30 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 69.50 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 77.00 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 56.90 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 58.75 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 53.25 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 45.95 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 53.90 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 44.70 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 38.45 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 39.15 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 34.40 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 36.20 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 30.25 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 37.90 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 18.00 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 20.45 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 14.44 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 10.16 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 17.34 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 19.82 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 25.35 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 21.80 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 21.40 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 18.94 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 17.20 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 17.42 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 21.95 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 25.50 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 23.15 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 21.55 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 23.45 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 20.25 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 17.52 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 19.58 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 28.75 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 33.90 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 37.10 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 38.25 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 41.45 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 45.85 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 53.25 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 70.50 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 89.85 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 89.65 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 94.00 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 104.20 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 156.50 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 193.80 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 220.40 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 266.60 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 246.00 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 322.40 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 266.80 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 221.60 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 224.80 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 187.70 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 223.60 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 229.80 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 143.60 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 157.20 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 173.40 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 154.70 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 162.60 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 156.10 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 152.60 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 145.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2021: low HKD 12.72 per share, central HKD 13.86 per share, high HKD 15.38 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 12.87 per share, central HKD 14.05 per share, high HKD 15.63 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 16.61 per share, central HKD 18.20 per share, high HKD 20.31 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 32.20 per share, central HKD 35.50 per share, high HKD 39.89 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 80.89 per share, central HKD 90.04 per share, high HKD 102.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.