# Alcoa (AA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:47.520Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $40.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.87 per share, central $10.67 per share, high $11.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.67 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:47.520Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 0.58×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: -0.00×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 12.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.8%

- FY2017: 31.0%

- FY2018: 25.5%

- FY2019: 14.2%

- FY2020: 8.3%

- FY2021: 33.6%

- FY2022: 20.3%

- FY2023: -0.4%

- FY2024: 11.3%

- FY2025: 13.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.59×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $863M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.48×

- FY2022: -0.11×

- FY2023: 0.84×

- FY2024: 2.03×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 25.5% vs 11.3%

- Per-share earnings: -2.19 to 0.28 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Market cap gain: $8.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$167M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 7.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.47

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.28

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.37

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $928M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$365M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 25.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.19

- FY2017: $1.16

- FY2018: $1.32

- FY2019: -$6.08

- FY2020: -$0.91

- FY2021: $2.26

- FY2022: -$0.68

- FY2023: -$3.66

- FY2024: $0.28

- FY2025: $4.40

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.03×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.5%

- FY2017: -5.8%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -12.4%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -3.3%

- FY2022: -6.4%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -4.0%

- FY2025: -0.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Mar 2022 · "Alcoa cuts production outlook, citing refinery issues" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +7.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.044Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Alcoa to Face Steep Costs From Tariffs Despite Strong Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d3ce31cb-e338-37b2-917c-7c7d602991b0/alcoa-to-face-steep-costs.html))

- 2025-06-02: Trump’s Higher Aluminum Tariff Raises Costs for Alcoa ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7ac59b4c-4de6-333e-928e-435fb0574b1f/trump%E2%80%99s-higher-aluminum.html))

- 2025-10-24: Alcoa Corp. (AA) Soars 12.6% After ‘More-Than-Double’ Net Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-corp-aa-soars-12-124347628.html))

- 2026-05-19: Will Cost Inflation and Tariffs Continue to Weigh on Alcoa? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/cost-inflation-tariffs-continue-weigh-161300147.html))

- 2026-06-10: Alcoa plunges after warning of $60M hit in alumina segment ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602419-alcoa-plunges-after-warning-of-60m-hit-in-alumina-segment?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-17: AA Stock Dips as Alcoa Cuts Aluminum Production Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aa-stock-dips-alcoa-cuts-185026084.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $9.3B 

- FY2017: $12B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $9.4B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 13.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 7.6% 

- FY2017: 17.1% 

- FY2018: 19.9% 

- FY2019: 11.5% 

- FY2020: 8.2% 

- FY2021: 21.1% 

- FY2022: 15.1% 

- FY2023: 2.3% 

- FY2024: 12.6% 

- FY2025: 13.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aluminum; annual sales are USD 12.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 12831000000; grossProfit 1729000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AA.US: Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 2.3% to 13.5% during 2023–25; it earns 13.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 2.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 13.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05785619174434088],[2017,0.31011173184357543],[2018,0.254995126705653],[2019,0.14189243427654025],[2020,0.08266794166865886],[2021,0.33550218340611354],[2022,0.20299043062200958],[2023,-0.0036944660950896336],[2024,0.11320388349514564],[2025,0.136299831555306]]; median 0.13909613291592313. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 405000000; owner earnings 564000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 399000000; owner earnings 584000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 353000000; owner earnings 130000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 390000000; owner earnings 635221052.6315789. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 480000000; owner earnings 14000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 580000000; owner earnings 122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 618000000; owner earnings 1153000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,233000000],[2017,342000000],[2018,827000000],[2019,472000000],[2020,1000000],[2021,19000000],[2022,72000000],[2023,72000000],[2024,90000000],[2025,105000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.516 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our indebtedness impacts our current and future operations" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Our indebtedness impacts our current and future operations

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3198687197024338. Price 40.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -2.6043956043956045 → FY2025 4.417624521072797. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.72 per share

- 2016-11: $28.97 per share

- 2016-12: $28.08 per share

- 2017-01: $36.45 per share

- 2017-02: $34.59 per share

- 2017-03: $34.40 per share

- 2017-04: $33.73 per share

- 2017-05: $32.94 per share

- 2017-06: $32.65 per share

- 2017-07: $36.40 per share

- 2017-08: $43.88 per share

- 2017-09: $46.62 per share

- 2017-10: $47.78 per share

- 2017-11: $41.51 per share

- 2017-12: $53.87 per share

- 2018-01: $52.02 per share

- 2018-02: $44.97 per share

- 2018-03: $44.96 per share

- 2018-04: $51.20 per share

- 2018-05: $48.07 per share

- 2018-06: $46.88 per share

- 2018-07: $43.27 per share

- 2018-08: $44.67 per share

- 2018-09: $40.40 per share

- 2018-10: $34.99 per share

- 2018-11: $31.81 per share

- 2018-12: $26.58 per share

- 2019-01: $29.68 per share

- 2019-02: $29.50 per share

- 2019-03: $28.16 per share

- 2019-04: $26.68 per share

- 2019-05: $21.19 per share

- 2019-06: $23.41 per share

- 2019-07: $22.49 per share

- 2019-08: $17.93 per share

- 2019-09: $20.07 per share

- 2019-10: $20.79 per share

- 2019-11: $20.35 per share

- 2019-12: $21.51 per share

- 2020-01: $13.95 per share

- 2020-02: $13.87 per share

- 2020-03: $6.16 per share

- 2020-04: $8.15 per share

- 2020-05: $9.21 per share

- 2020-06: $11.24 per share

- 2020-07: $13.00 per share

- 2020-08: $14.62 per share

- 2020-09: $11.63 per share

- 2020-10: $12.92 per share

- 2020-11: $19.90 per share

- 2020-12: $23.05 per share

- 2021-01: $18.00 per share

- 2021-02: $24.55 per share

- 2021-03: $32.49 per share

- 2021-04: $36.64 per share

- 2021-05: $39.67 per share

- 2021-06: $36.84 per share

- 2021-07: $40.15 per share

- 2021-08: $44.37 per share

- 2021-09: $48.94 per share

- 2021-10: $45.95 per share

- 2021-11: $46.53 per share

- 2021-12: $59.58 per share

- 2022-01: $56.71 per share

- 2022-02: $75.34 per share

- 2022-03: $90.03 per share

- 2022-04: $67.80 per share

- 2022-05: $61.72 per share

- 2022-06: $45.58 per share

- 2022-07: $50.89 per share

- 2022-08: $49.48 per share

- 2022-09: $33.66 per share

- 2022-10: $39.03 per share

- 2022-11: $50.13 per share

- 2022-12: $45.47 per share

- 2023-01: $52.24 per share

- 2023-02: $48.94 per share

- 2023-03: $42.56 per share

- 2023-04: $37.14 per share

- 2023-05: $31.72 per share

- 2023-06: $33.93 per share

- 2023-07: $36.19 per share

- 2023-08: $30.08 per share

- 2023-09: $29.06 per share

- 2023-10: $25.64 per share

- 2023-11: $26.86 per share

- 2023-12: $34.00 per share

- 2024-01: $29.75 per share

- 2024-02: $27.21 per share

- 2024-03: $33.79 per share

- 2024-04: $35.14 per share

- 2024-05: $44.27 per share

- 2024-06: $39.78 per share

- 2024-07: $33.04 per share

- 2024-08: $32.10 per share

- 2024-09: $38.58 per share

- 2024-10: $40.09 per share

- 2024-11: $46.43 per share

- 2024-12: $37.78 per share

- 2025-01: $35.32 per share

- 2025-02: $33.25 per share

- 2025-03: $30.50 per share

- 2025-04: $24.53 per share

- 2025-05: $26.77 per share

- 2025-06: $29.51 per share

- 2025-07: $29.97 per share

- 2025-08: $32.19 per share

- 2025-09: $32.89 per share

- 2025-10: $36.79 per share

- 2025-11: $41.74 per share

- 2025-12: $53.14 per share

- 2026-01: $56.81 per share

- 2026-02: $62.08 per share

- 2026-03: $66.33 per share

- 2026-04: $63.79 per share

- 2026-05: $77.64 per share

- 2026-06: $52.14 per share

- 2026-07: $45.26 per share

- 2026-08: $49.95 per share

- 2026-09: $42.00 per share

- 2026-10: $41.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $28.68 per share, central $32.19 per share, high $36.85 per share

- FY2020: low $12.68 per share, central $13.73 per share, high $15.13 per share

- FY2021: low $37.11 per share, central $41.37 per share, high $47.05 per share

- FY2022: low $15.40 per share, central $16.88 per share, high $18.84 per share

- FY2023: low $3.70 per share, central $3.80 per share, high $3.94 per share

- FY2024: low $10.44 per share, central $11.30 per share, high $12.44 per share

- FY2025: low $11.20 per share, central $11.96 per share, high $12.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.