# Airtel Africa (AAF.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AAF.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:19.625Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 285.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 77.93 per share, central GBX 82.62 per share, high GBX 88.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 82.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:19.625Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.1% at the stated quote. About 4.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.84×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: -0.26×

- FY2021: 0.29×

- FY2022: 0.33×

- FY2023: 0.33×

- FY2024: 0.33×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- FY2026: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 66.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 70.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 20.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.8%

- FY2018: 20.2%

- FY2019: 30.5%

- FY2020: -23.3%

- FY2021: 23.8%

- FY2022: 47.9%

- FY2023: 42.3%

- FY2024: 42.0%

- FY2025: 19.6%

- FY2026: 33.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$455M

- Net income, five-year total: $2.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 114.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.48×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 4.99×

- FY2025: -1.32×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.2% vs 33.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.04 to 0.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.03

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 33.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.17

- FY2018: -$0.04

- FY2019: $0.11

- FY2020: $0.10

- FY2021: $0.09

- FY2022: $0.17

- FY2023: $0.22

- FY2024: -$0.04

- FY2025: $0.06

- FY2026: $0.19

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.41×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.31×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -12.2%

- FY2018: -11.4%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -10.9%

- FY2021: -13.3%

- FY2022: -13.3%

- FY2023: -13.8%

- FY2024: -24.6%

- FY2025: -17.0%

- FY2026: -11.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 24.5% a year for ten years · "A relentless focus on cost efficiencies to ensure profitable growth." (AAF filing, Jun 2026) · sales +29.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.505Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 24.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +29.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: $2.9B 

- FY2018: $2.9B 

- FY2019: $3.1B 

- FY2020: $3.4B 

- FY2021: $3.9B 

- FY2022: $4.7B 

- FY2023: $5.3B 

- FY2024: $5.0B 

- FY2025: $5.0B 

- FY2026: $6.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 72.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: 55.2% 

- FY2018: 58.3% 

- FY2019: 61.1% 

- FY2020: 65.1% 

- FY2021: 67.6% 

- FY2022: 68.9% 

- FY2023: 68.1% 

- FY2024: 63.7% 

- FY2025: 70.3% 

- FY2026: 72.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are USD 6.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 6415000000; grossProfit 4678000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AAF.LSE: Airtel Africa Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications and mobile money services in Nigeria, East Africa, and Francophone Africa. It offers pre and post-paid wireless voice, international roaming, and fixed line telephony services; data services, including 4G and 5G, home broadband, fibre, and data centers; and mobile money services, such as digital wallet payments systems, microloans, merchant, savings, insurance, international, and international money transfers. The company also provides messaging, value added, and tower sharing services, as well as infrastructure sharing, mobile commerce, and support services. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Airtel Africa Plc is a subsidiary of Airtel Africa Mauritius Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 63.7% to 72.9% during 2024–26; it earns 27.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 63.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 70.3%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 72.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05796013570822731],[2018,0.20160887656033288],[2019,0.305451518934665],[2020,-0.23267566123768604],[2021,0.23847540983606558],[2022,0.4787894838252609],[2023,0.4233373376050556],[2024,0.41969549724651767],[2025,0.19599544701986754],[2026,0.3394394052771861]]; median 0.2719634643853653. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 69% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6755373592630501],[2022,0.6885871871022486],[2023,0.6806850618458611]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 72.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 346000000; owner earnings 93000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 120000000; upkeep 573000000; owner earnings 168400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7125890736342043.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2020: growth capex 179000000; upkeep 632000000; owner earnings 136200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3142437591776799.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2021: growth capex 234000000; upkeep 681000000; owner earnings 83600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.799043062200957.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 739000000; owner earnings 304000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 424018339.3279214; upkeep 856981660.6720786; owner earnings 214618339.3279214. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9756854920028613.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 740947331; owner earnings 140252669. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,113000000],[2018,113000000],[2019,113000000],[2020,113000000],[2021,169000000],[2022,169000000],[2023,195000000],[2024,212000000],[2025,229000000],[2026,242062474]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 72815541 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 79.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AAF.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 79.668 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 24.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.34467613675107933. Price 285.6; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2019-06: GBX 67.80 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 68.90 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 67.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 50.80 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 63.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 78.85 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 79.95 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 73.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 64.85 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 41.12 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 40.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 34.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 62.50 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 53.80 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 57.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 58.40 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 61.70 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 80.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 75.60 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 79.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 79.70 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 79.30 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 76.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 78.75 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 77.05 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 89.25 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 92.95 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 99.70 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 109.60 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 124.80 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 133.70 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 152.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 142.10 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 139.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 146.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 154.60 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 135.20 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 158.80 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 132.30 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 129.20 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 113.10 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 123.30 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 111.80 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 117.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 120.60 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 106.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 120.10 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 119.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 107.80 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 116.60 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 114.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 125.60 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 113.30 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 109.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 130.20 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 112.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 94.85 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 105.80 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 110.90 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 121.90 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 120.10 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 114.20 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 116.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 114.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 102.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 105.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 113.60 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 144.40 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 142.60 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 165.60 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 171.50 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 176.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 180.30 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 204.20 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 221.80 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 244.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 276.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 310.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 355.20 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 319.20 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 349.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 344.60 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 354.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 352.60 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 327.60 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 333.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 332.80 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 300.60 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 287.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2021: low GBX 48.29 per share, central GBX 52.04 per share, high GBX 57.04 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 70.12 per share, central GBX 75.82 per share, high GBX 83.40 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 89.75 per share, central GBX 97.87 per share, high GBX 108.69 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 62.03 per share, central GBX 68.14 per share, high GBX 76.29 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 31.26 per share, central GBX 34.56 per share, high GBX 38.95 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 75.55 per share, central GBX 79.92 per share, high GBX 85.73 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:02.350Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31/reports/254900ZNZDQL6OWQH623-2026-03-31.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.