# Apple (AAPL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AAPL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:06.831Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $342.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $121.74 per share, central $175.77 per share, high $205.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $175.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:06.831Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.27×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.33×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 70.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 31.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 68.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 31.3%

- FY2017: 27.3%

- FY2018: 37.3%

- FY2019: 54.8%

- FY2020: 65.3%

- FY2021: 75.5%

- FY2022: 81.2%

- FY2023: 86.6%

- FY2024: 84.4%

- FY2025: 85.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $500B

- Net income, five-year total: $497B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 563.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 31.3% vs 85.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.30 to 6.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Market cap gain: $2.97T

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$113B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.0%

- Per-share value change: $3.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.13

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.85

- Average buyback yield: 4.1%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $763B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 31.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 85.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.08

- FY2017: $2.30

- FY2018: $2.98

- FY2019: $2.97

- FY2020: $3.28

- FY2021: $5.61

- FY2022: $6.11

- FY2023: $6.13

- FY2024: $6.08

- FY2025: $7.46

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 11.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.00×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.3%

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -4.9%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -7.2%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: -6.3%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -6.7%

- FY2025: 0.1%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Li Lu](https://gigainvestors.com/HC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Ron Muhlenkamp](https://gigainvestors.com/MUHL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bruce Berkowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/fairx): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.9% a year for ten years · sales +6.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:12.646Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-01: Apple Fiscal Third-Quarter Results Top Views Amid Double-Digit iPhone, Mac Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-fiscal-third-quarter-results-103303210.html))

- 2025-09-30: AAPL: Apple Stock Wobbles as iPhone 17 Demand Cools In U.S. Market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aapl-apple-stock-wobbles-iphone-121801292.html))

- 2026-04-29: Apple stock rises after Q2 earnings top estimates on strong iPhone, China sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-stock-rises-after-q2-earnings-top-estimates-on-strong-iphone-china-sales-174442778.html))

- 2026-05-01: Apple Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, iPhone Drives Top-Line Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-171700933.html))

- 2026-06-25: Apple shares drop after company raises prices on Mac and iPad lineup ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-shares-drop-company-raises-164800574.html))

- 2026-07-31: Apple stock drops 7% as chip squeeze clouds record quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-stock-drops-7-chip-205824154.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm; observed 2025-10-31.

- FY2016: $216B 

- FY2017: $229B 

- FY2018: $266B 

- FY2019: $260B 

- FY2020: $275B 

- FY2021: $366B 

- FY2022: $394B 

- FY2023: $383B 

- FY2024: $391B 

- FY2025: $416B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm; observed 2025-10-31.

- FY2016: 39.1% 

- FY2017: 38.5% 

- FY2018: 38.3% 

- FY2019: 37.8% 

- FY2020: 38.2% 

- FY2021: 41.8% 

- FY2022: 43.3% 

- FY2023: 44.1% 

- FY2024: 46.2% 

- FY2025: 46.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Gets 50.4% of sales from iPhone; keeps 46.9 cents per sales dollar after product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); FY2025: revenue 416161000000; grossProfit 195201000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); s increased during 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to higher net sales of iPhone, Services and iPad. Rest of Asia Pacific Rest of Asia Pacific net sales increased during 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to higher net sales of iPhone, Services and Mac. Apple Inc. | 2025 Form 10-K | 22 Products and Services Performance The following table shows net sales by category for 2025, 2024 and 2023 (dollars in millions): 2025 Change 2024 Change 2023 iPhone $ 209,586 4 % $ 201,183 — % $ 200,583 Mac 33,708 12 % 29,984 2 % 29,357 iPad 28,023 5 % 26,694 (6) % 28,300 Wearables, Home and Accessories 35,686 (4) % 37,005 (7) % 39,845 Services (1) 109,158 14 % 96,169 13 % 85,200 Total net sales $ 416,161 6 % $ 391,035 2 % $ 383,285 (1)Services net sales include amortization of the deferred value of services bundled in the sales price of certain products. iPhone iPhone net sales increased during 2025 compared to 2024 due to higher net sales of Pro models. Mac Mac net sales increased during 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to higher net sales of laptops and desktops. iPad iPad net sales increased during 2025 compared to 2024

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.1% to 46.9% during 2023–25; it earns 70.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.31310269514475864],[2017,0.27250984973312686],[2018,0.37271701178242755],[2019,0.5484609313422659],[2020,0.6532598369586536],[2021,0.7546242696570883],[2022,0.8120380457283549],[2023,0.8661681979918924],[2024,0.8438604565951359],[2025,0.8544123632555589]]; median 0.703942053307871. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Bought back shares 45.8% above our value in 2025; spends 0.9% of cash earnings on expansion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 12734000000; owner earnings 43458000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2017: growth capex 1573516599.8297691; upkeep 10877483400.17023; owner earnings 47630516599.82977. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.033035891948217766.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2018: growth capex 2410000000; upkeep 10903000000; owner earnings 59531000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.040483109640355446.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 10495000000; owner earnings 57308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 7309000000; owner earnings 61158000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 11085000000; owner earnings 94879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 10708000000; owner earnings 100199000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 10959000000; owner earnings 97555000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 9447000000; owner earnings 95734000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); FY2025: growth capex 1017000000; upkeep 11698000000; owner earnings 112010000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009079546469065261.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); Dividend observations: [[2016,12150000000],[2017,12769000000],[2018,13712000000],[2019,14119000000],[2020,14081000000],[2021,14467000000],[2022,14841000000],[2023,15025000000],[2024,15234000000],[2025,15421000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); pal payments for the Company’s Notes as of September 27, 2025, are as follows (in millions): 2026 $ 12,393 2027 10,078 2028 9,300 2029 5,235 2030 4,972 Thereafter 49,303 Total term debt principal $ 91,281 As of September 27, 2025 and September 28, 2024, the fair value of the Company’s Notes, based on Level 2 inputs, was $80.4 billion and $88.4 billion, respectively. Note 10 – Shareholders’ Equity Share Repurchase Program During 2025, the Company repurchased 402 million shares of its common stock for $89.3 billion. The Company’s share repurchase programs do not obligate the Company to acquire a minimum amount of shares. Under the programs, shares may be repurchased in privately negotiated or open market transactions, including under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Exchange Act. Apple Inc. | 2025 Form 10-K | 44 Shares of Common Stock The following table shows the changes in shares of common stock for 2025, 2024 and 2023 (in thousands): 2025 2024 2023 Common stock outstanding, beginning balances 15,116,786 15,550,061 15,943,425 Common stock repurchased (401,672) (499,372) (471,419) Common stock issued, net of shares withheld for employee taxe FY2025: paid/share 222.13930348258705 USD; our historic value/share 152.3457165357489 USD; premium 0.45812634929227336. Historic values use today's bond yield and FX, not a point-in-time investment signal.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AAPL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.6480000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The Company’s future performance depends in part on support from third-party software developers." (SEC filing, Oct 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm (filed 2025-10-31); The Company’s future performance depends in part on support from third-party software developers.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2950966315866128. Price 342; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.3046506092021346 → FY2025 7.464995794316939. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $27.63 per share

- 2016-12: $28.95 per share

- 2017-01: $30.34 per share

- 2017-02: $34.25 per share

- 2017-03: $35.92 per share

- 2017-04: $35.91 per share

- 2017-05: $38.19 per share

- 2017-06: $36.01 per share

- 2017-07: $37.18 per share

- 2017-08: $41.00 per share

- 2017-09: $38.53 per share

- 2017-10: $42.26 per share

- 2017-11: $42.96 per share

- 2017-12: $42.31 per share

- 2018-01: $41.86 per share

- 2018-02: $44.53 per share

- 2018-03: $41.94 per share

- 2018-04: $41.31 per share

- 2018-05: $46.72 per share

- 2018-06: $46.28 per share

- 2018-07: $47.57 per share

- 2018-08: $56.91 per share

- 2018-09: $56.44 per share

- 2018-10: $54.72 per share

- 2018-11: $44.65 per share

- 2018-12: $39.44 per share

- 2019-01: $41.61 per share

- 2019-02: $43.29 per share

- 2019-03: $47.49 per share

- 2019-04: $50.17 per share

- 2019-05: $43.77 per share

- 2019-06: $49.48 per share

- 2019-07: $53.26 per share

- 2019-08: $52.19 per share

- 2019-09: $55.99 per share

- 2019-10: $62.19 per share

- 2019-11: $66.81 per share

- 2019-12: $73.41 per share

- 2020-01: $77.38 per share

- 2020-02: $68.34 per share

- 2020-03: $63.57 per share

- 2020-04: $73.45 per share

- 2020-05: $79.49 per share

- 2020-06: $91.20 per share

- 2020-07: $106.26 per share

- 2020-08: $129.04 per share

- 2020-09: $115.81 per share

- 2020-10: $108.86 per share

- 2020-11: $119.05 per share

- 2020-12: $132.69 per share

- 2021-01: $131.96 per share

- 2021-02: $121.26 per share

- 2021-03: $122.15 per share

- 2021-04: $131.46 per share

- 2021-05: $124.61 per share

- 2021-06: $136.96 per share

- 2021-07: $145.86 per share

- 2021-08: $151.83 per share

- 2021-09: $141.50 per share

- 2021-10: $149.80 per share

- 2021-11: $165.30 per share

- 2021-12: $177.57 per share

- 2022-01: $174.78 per share

- 2022-02: $165.12 per share

- 2022-03: $174.61 per share

- 2022-04: $157.65 per share

- 2022-05: $148.84 per share

- 2022-06: $136.72 per share

- 2022-07: $162.51 per share

- 2022-08: $157.22 per share

- 2022-09: $138.20 per share

- 2022-10: $153.34 per share

- 2022-11: $148.03 per share

- 2022-12: $129.93 per share

- 2023-01: $144.29 per share

- 2023-02: $147.41 per share

- 2023-03: $164.90 per share

- 2023-04: $169.68 per share

- 2023-05: $177.25 per share

- 2023-06: $193.97 per share

- 2023-07: $196.45 per share

- 2023-08: $187.87 per share

- 2023-09: $171.21 per share

- 2023-10: $170.77 per share

- 2023-11: $189.95 per share

- 2023-12: $192.53 per share

- 2024-01: $184.40 per share

- 2024-02: $180.75 per share

- 2024-03: $171.48 per share

- 2024-04: $170.33 per share

- 2024-05: $192.25 per share

- 2024-06: $210.62 per share

- 2024-07: $222.08 per share

- 2024-08: $229.00 per share

- 2024-09: $233.00 per share

- 2024-10: $225.91 per share

- 2024-11: $237.33 per share

- 2024-12: $250.42 per share

- 2025-01: $236.00 per share

- 2025-02: $241.84 per share

- 2025-03: $222.13 per share

- 2025-04: $212.50 per share

- 2025-05: $200.85 per share

- 2025-06: $205.17 per share

- 2025-07: $207.57 per share

- 2025-08: $232.14 per share

- 2025-09: $254.63 per share

- 2025-10: $270.37 per share

- 2025-11: $278.85 per share

- 2025-12: $271.86 per share

- 2026-01: $259.48 per share

- 2026-02: $264.18 per share

- 2026-03: $253.79 per share

- 2026-04: $271.35 per share

- 2026-05: $312.06 per share

- 2026-06: $289.36 per share

- 2026-07: $308.91 per share

- 2026-08: $316.85 per share

- 2026-09: $333.02 per share

- 2026-10: $341.27 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $33.51 per share, central $47.57 per share, high $55.42 per share

- FY2017: low $37.09 per share, central $52.58 per share, high $61.23 per share

- FY2018: low $44.15 per share, central $63.01 per share, high $73.52 per share

- FY2019: low $49.88 per share, central $70.41 per share, high $81.86 per share

- FY2020: low $54.97 per share, central $77.95 per share, high $90.76 per share

- FY2021: low $73.45 per share, central $105.64 per share, high $123.60 per share

- FY2022: low $81.09 per share, central $117.15 per share, high $137.27 per share

- FY2023: low $92.84 per share, central $133.87 per share, high $156.76 per share

- FY2024: low $97.36 per share, central $140.32 per share, high $164.28 per share

- FY2025: low $105.50 per share, central $152.35 per share, high $178.52 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:31:41.753Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm); period 2025-09-27, filed 2025-10-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.