# Ambev (ABEV3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ABEV3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:55.881Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 16.69 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 7.24 per share, central BRL 7.66 per share, high BRL 8.15 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 7.66 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:55.881Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.38×

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.34×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.27×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 68.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 59.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 21.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 86.9%

- FY2020: 70.2%

- FY2021: 65.7%

- FY2022: 59.3%

- FY2023: 66.9%

- FY2024: 59.5%

- FY2025: 52.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL 74B

- Net income, five-year total: BRL 72B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.96×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.12×

- FY2025: 1.11×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 127.0% vs 59.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.78 to 0.92 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: BRL -42B

- Cumulative retained earnings: BRL 8.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.0%

- Per-share value change: BRL 0.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL 0.78

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL 0.92

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.88

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: BRL 24B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: BRL 126B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 59.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: BRL 0.79

- FY2017: BRL 0.46

- FY2018: BRL 0.70

- FY2019: BRL 0.74

- FY2020: BRL 0.72

- FY2021: BRL 0.80

- FY2022: BRL 0.91

- FY2023: BRL 0.92

- FY2024: BRL 0.91

- FY2025: BRL 0.99

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.65×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.60×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.2%

- FY2017: -12.1%

- FY2018: -7.3%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -7.7%

- FY2024: -7.2%

- FY2025: -6.0%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.5% a year for ten years · sales -1.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.351Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2016: BRL 46B 

- FY2017: BRL 48B 

- FY2018: BRL 50B 

- FY2019: BRL 53B 

- FY2020: BRL 58B 

- FY2021: BRL 73B 

- FY2022: BRL 80B 

- FY2023: BRL 80B 

- FY2024: BRL 89B 

- FY2025: BRL 88B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2016: 63.4% 

- FY2017: 62.3% 

- FY2018: 61.6% 

- FY2019: 58.8% 

- FY2020: 53.6% 

- FY2021: 51.1% 

- FY2022: 49.3% 

- FY2023: 50.7% 

- FY2024: 51.2% 

- FY2025: 47.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are BRL 88.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: revenue 88242467000; grossProfit 42233920000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABEV3.SA: Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.9% to 51.2% during 2023–25; it earns 68.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 50.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.446105255435894],[2017,1.2701402452319868],[2018,1.0258365067710662],[2019,0.8691906187960954],[2020,0.7015282381058111],[2021,0.657120141815416],[2022,0.5930415064009986],[2023,0.6694145926551238],[2024,0.5950372043154006],[2025,0.5246847480461823]]; median 0.6854714153804675. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 49% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-03); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5105340384850311],[2022,0.4928778252840339],[2023,0.5072345089703562]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back BRL 1.9 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 4132700000; owner earnings 11925900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3203600000; owner earnings 7619352000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3571000000; owner earnings 11902100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2019: growth capex 394200000; upkeep 4675200000; owner earnings 11350420000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03472999237032638.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4692700000; owner earnings 11429880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2021: growth capex 2280400000; upkeep 5396700000; owner earnings 12143140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18779327258023873.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2022: growth capex 576800000; upkeep 5956300000; owner earnings 13834420000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04169311037253459.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6004099000; owner earnings 14321082000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4749101000; owner earnings 16221479000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4590474000; owner earnings 17147656000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,10330600000],[2017,8819800000],[2018,8814100000],[2019,7871300000],[2020,6850300000],[2021,11115300000],[2022,12242300000],[2023,11921949000],[2024,4056400000],[2025,20463505000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 1925650000 BRL.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 73.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABEV3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 73.22999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18200657794625086. Price 16.69; FX 1; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7831146073648249 → FY2025 1.0933285726126794. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-10: BRL 18.83 per share

- 2016-11: BRL 17.15 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 16.40 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 17.20 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 17.84 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 18.24 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 18.26 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 18.71 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 18.31 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 19.15 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 19.86 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 21.04 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 20.90 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 20.56 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 21.28 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 21.95 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 22.00 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 24.07 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 23.33 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 19.69 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 17.98 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 19.41 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 18.85 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 18.34 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 16.34 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 16.92 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 15.38 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 17.51 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 17.23 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 16.83 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 18.47 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 17.55 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 17.89 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 20.13 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 18.72 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 19.25 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 17.38 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 18.05 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 18.67 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 17.85 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 14.54 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 11.92 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 11.34 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 12.48 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 14.14 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 13.90 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 12.31 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 12.54 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 12.18 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 13.98 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 15.65 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 15.11 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 14.02 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 15.29 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 14.94 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 17.95 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 17.07 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 16.64 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 17.10 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 15.30 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 16.99 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 16.06 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 15.42 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 14.97 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 15.20 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 15.40 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 14.52 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 14.19 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 13.40 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 14.93 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 15.27 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 15.54 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 16.00 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 15.92 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 14.52 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 13.66 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 13.39 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 14.33 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 14.16 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 14.41 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 15.41 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 14.86 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 13.84 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 13.11 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 12.86 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 13.69 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 13.73 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 13.08 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 12.58 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 12.49 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 12.15 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 11.56 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 11.41 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 11.58 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 12.86 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 13.08 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 12.64 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 12.73 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 11.74 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 11.10 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 12.22 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 13.50 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 14.57 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 14.03 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 13.32 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 12.46 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 12.35 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 12.09 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 12.71 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 13.86 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 13.86 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 14.85 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 16.27 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 15.25 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 14.51 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 16.32 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 16.29 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 15.99 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 15.03 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 15.36 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 16.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2016: low BRL 6.19 per share, central BRL 7.89 per share, high BRL 8.50 per share

- FY2017: low BRL 6.07 per share, central BRL 7.40 per share, high BRL 7.95 per share

- FY2018: low BRL 6.34 per share, central BRL 7.64 per share, high BRL 8.20 per share

- FY2019: low BRL 6.03 per share, central BRL 7.22 per share, high BRL 7.74 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 6.34 per share, central BRL 7.29 per share, high BRL 7.77 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 7.10 per share, central BRL 8.30 per share, high BRL 8.87 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 7.15 per share, central BRL 8.02 per share, high BRL 8.57 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 6.89 per share, central BRL 7.96 per share, high BRL 8.51 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 7.87 per share, central BRL 8.28 per share, high BRL 8.76 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 7.24 per share, central BRL 7.66 per share, high BRL 8.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:41.770Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426000640/abevform20f_2025.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.