# Asbury Automotive Group (ABG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ABG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:07.873Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $169.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $478.66 per share, central $673.93 per share, high $791.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value $673.93 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:07.873Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 28.7% at the stated quote. About 28.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.0%

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 10.4%

- FY2019: 10.6%

- FY2020: 10.3%

- FY2021: 14.3%

- FY2022: 21.1%

- FY2023: 10.8%

- FY2024: 9.4%

- FY2025: 9.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.0% vs 9.4%

- Per-share earnings: 6.62 to 25.10 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: $3.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 18.1%

- Per-share value change: $18.48

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.62

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $25.10

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.39

- Average buyback yield: 4.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $7.40

- FY2017: $6.62

- FY2018: $8.28

- FY2019: $9.55

- FY2020: $13.18

- FY2021: $26.49

- FY2022: $44.52

- FY2023: $28.69

- FY2024: $21.52

- FY2025: $25.10

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.1%

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: 5.9%

- FY2019: -5.7%

- FY2020: -10.8%

- FY2021: -7.9%

- FY2022: 3.8%

- FY2023: 2.8%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -2.4%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Abrams](https://gigainvestors.com/abc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 43% since Jan 2025 · "Lower-than-expected gross profits from new vehicle sales and retail wholesale led to the underperformance." (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales -0.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:12.878Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 11.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-07-29: ABG Q2 Earnings Beat on Used-Vehicle Gains, Revenues Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/abg-q2-earnings-beat-used-150300115.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -0.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2017: $6.5B 

- FY2018: $6.9B 

- FY2019: $7.2B 

- FY2020: $7.1B 

- FY2021: $9.8B 

- FY2022: $15B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: 16.2% 

- FY2017: 16.4% 

- FY2018: 16.0% 

- FY2019: 16.2% 

- FY2020: 17.2% 

- FY2021: 19.3% 

- FY2022: 20.1% 

- FY2023: 18.6% 

- FY2024: 17.2% 

- FY2025: 17.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto & truck dealerships; annual sales are USD 18 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 17999000000; grossProfit 3071700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.1% to 18.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09990194054500413],[2017,0.09952016587278716],[2018,0.10360527768194835],[2019,0.10582061031635294],[2020,0.10306408757778071],[2021,0.14334314831380116],[2022,0.21061772050720512],[2023,0.10760981936713551],[2024,0.09394017224843972],[2025,0.09427096847241241]]; median 0.10333468262986453. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 20% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.19335820364516096],[2022,0.20089543148523703],[2023,0.18616873948671525]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 25% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 25.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 92000000; owner earnings 105900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 48100000; owner earnings 123100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2018: growth capex 24200000; upkeep 33700000; owner earnings 168000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14404761904761904.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2019: growth capex 30600000; upkeep 36200000; owner earnings 184400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16594360086767895.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 48800000; owner earnings 244100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2021: growth capex 40100000; upkeep 41900000; owner earnings 532400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07531930879038318.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2022: growth capex 38900000; upkeep 69000000; owner earnings 997300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.039005314348741604.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 142300000; owner earnings 527900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); FY2024: growth capex 233200000; upkeep 75000000; owner earnings 430300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5419474785033698.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: growth capex 122900000; upkeep 82400000; owner earnings 492000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24979674796747967.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Incremental return on capital 0.2584147331003838, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,7970300000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 112700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.861 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); ending, interest rates, fuel prices, exchange rates, technology and business model changes, supply conditions, consumer transportation preferences, credit availability, and the unemployment rate. Consumer spending can be materially and adversely impacted by periods of economic uncertainty or by consumer concern regarding manufacturer viability. In addition, local economic, competitive and other conditions affect the performance of our dealerships. Our results of operations depend substantially on general economic conditions and consumer spending in those regions where we maintain operations.

Tariffs and trade risks

A significant portion of our business involves the sale of vehicles, parts, or vehicles composed of, or maintenance and repair services including, parts that are manufactured outside the U.S. Changes or increases in tariffs, trade restrictions, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, the negotiation of new trade agreements, non-tariff trade barriers, local content requirements, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, and the imposition of new or retaliatory tariffs against certain countries or covering certain products, including vehicles and parts, may affect our competitive position and impair our ability to sell and service vehicles and parts, and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

In late January 2025, the U.S. government commenced a broad review of U.S. trade relations, following which it began issuing numerous executive orders and other public policy statements imposing or threatening to impose tariffs on certain countries, materials, and industries, including the automotive industry. Such tariffs include a 25% tariff on imports of automobiles and certain automobile parts, with different rates for some countries as a result of respective trade deals. In response, certain impacted countries have imposed or threatened various corresponding retaliatory tariffs and other actions. If maintained, these and other newly announced tariffs and actions and the potential escalation of trade disputes are expected to affect the automotive industry generally, including manufacturers, distributors and retailers of vehicles, parts and supplies. The extent of the tariffs and the resulting impact on general economic conditions and on our business are uncertain and depend on various factors, such as negotiations between the U.S. and affected countries, the duration of such tariffs, the responses of other countries or regions to such tariffs, the actual increases in the costs of vehicles, products and raw materials, and exemptions or exclusions that may be granted. Should tariffs increase and be sustained, our inventory acquisition and carrying costs, and the production costs for many of our manufacturer, distributor and supplier partners, may be increased, which costs may be passed on to us and consumers th

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 11.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1704261931873517. Price 169.87; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.409090909090909 → FY2025 25.102040816326532. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $50.95 per share

- 2016-11: $58.75 per share

- 2016-12: $61.70 per share

- 2017-01: $65.60 per share

- 2017-02: $65.15 per share

- 2017-03: $60.10 per share

- 2017-04: $61.20 per share

- 2017-05: $55.95 per share

- 2017-06: $56.55 per share

- 2017-07: $54.00 per share

- 2017-08: $53.85 per share

- 2017-09: $61.10 per share

- 2017-10: $61.40 per share

- 2017-11: $65.80 per share

- 2017-12: $64.00 per share

- 2018-01: $72.65 per share

- 2018-02: $65.85 per share

- 2018-03: $67.50 per share

- 2018-04: $67.05 per share

- 2018-05: $69.55 per share

- 2018-06: $68.55 per share

- 2018-07: $70.30 per share

- 2018-08: $74.50 per share

- 2018-09: $68.75 per share

- 2018-10: $65.10 per share

- 2018-11: $69.12 per share

- 2018-12: $66.66 per share

- 2019-01: $70.65 per share

- 2019-02: $71.79 per share

- 2019-03: $69.36 per share

- 2019-04: $80.18 per share

- 2019-05: $74.19 per share

- 2019-06: $84.34 per share

- 2019-07: $92.08 per share

- 2019-08: $94.30 per share

- 2019-09: $102.33 per share

- 2019-10: $103.13 per share

- 2019-11: $110.84 per share

- 2019-12: $111.79 per share

- 2020-01: $96.45 per share

- 2020-02: $88.64 per share

- 2020-03: $55.23 per share

- 2020-04: $67.50 per share

- 2020-05: $72.28 per share

- 2020-06: $77.33 per share

- 2020-07: $100.15 per share

- 2020-08: $105.79 per share

- 2020-09: $97.45 per share

- 2020-10: $102.98 per share

- 2020-11: $112.77 per share

- 2020-12: $145.74 per share

- 2021-01: $142.61 per share

- 2021-02: $169.45 per share

- 2021-03: $196.50 per share

- 2021-04: $198.61 per share

- 2021-05: $198.29 per share

- 2021-06: $171.37 per share

- 2021-07: $205.46 per share

- 2021-08: $186.24 per share

- 2021-09: $196.74 per share

- 2021-10: $195.71 per share

- 2021-11: $163.64 per share

- 2021-12: $172.73 per share

- 2022-01: $160.97 per share

- 2022-02: $194.11 per share

- 2022-03: $160.20 per share

- 2022-04: $183.71 per share

- 2022-05: $181.15 per share

- 2022-06: $169.34 per share

- 2022-07: $171.64 per share

- 2022-08: $174.48 per share

- 2022-09: $151.10 per share

- 2022-10: $157.75 per share

- 2022-11: $187.62 per share

- 2022-12: $179.25 per share

- 2023-01: $220.00 per share

- 2023-02: $227.10 per share

- 2023-03: $210.00 per share

- 2023-04: $193.46 per share

- 2023-05: $209.11 per share

- 2023-06: $240.42 per share

- 2023-07: $225.60 per share

- 2023-08: $230.00 per share

- 2023-09: $230.07 per share

- 2023-10: $191.37 per share

- 2023-11: $209.82 per share

- 2023-12: $224.97 per share

- 2024-01: $209.06 per share

- 2024-02: $208.83 per share

- 2024-03: $235.78 per share

- 2024-04: $210.24 per share

- 2024-05: $235.07 per share

- 2024-06: $227.87 per share

- 2024-07: $269.22 per share

- 2024-08: $245.64 per share

- 2024-09: $238.59 per share

- 2024-10: $227.84 per share

- 2024-11: $259.83 per share

- 2024-12: $243.03 per share

- 2025-01: $296.68 per share

- 2025-02: $268.40 per share

- 2025-03: $220.84 per share

- 2025-04: $218.14 per share

- 2025-05: $227.91 per share

- 2025-06: $238.54 per share

- 2025-07: $222.12 per share

- 2025-08: $251.54 per share

- 2025-09: $244.45 per share

- 2025-10: $234.60 per share

- 2025-11: $232.57 per share

- 2025-12: $232.53 per share

- 2026-01: $234.51 per share

- 2026-02: $213.78 per share

- 2026-03: $195.41 per share

- 2026-04: $203.69 per share

- 2026-05: $187.71 per share

- 2026-06: $201.08 per share

- 2026-07: $231.70 per share

- 2026-08: $211.40 per share

- 2026-09: $172.30 per share

- 2026-10: $169.87 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $62.77 per share, central $74.85 per share, high $87.15 per share

- FY2017: low $72.97 per share, central $95.15 per share, high $111.29 per share

- FY2018: low $86.84 per share, central $122.70 per share, high $144.06 per share

- FY2019: low $124.12 per share, central $177.31 per share, high $208.28 per share

- FY2020: low $119.90 per share, central $167.15 per share, high $196.13 per share

- FY2021: low $164.09 per share, central $225.77 per share, high $264.75 per share

- FY2022: low $315.24 per share, central $442.56 per share, high $519.45 per share

- FY2023: low $339.61 per share, central $482.03 per share, high $566.06 per share

- FY2024: low $416.68 per share, central $595.24 per share, high $699.21 per share

- FY2025: low $439.00 per share, central $618.10 per share, high $725.58 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144980/000114498026000051/abg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.