# Airbnb (ABNB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ABNB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:08.319Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $174.28 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $76.73 per share, central $84.55 per share, high $94.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $84.55 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:08.319Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.9% at the stated quote. About 5.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 35.76×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.03×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: -0.10×

- FY2020: -1.06×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 76.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 72.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 8

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: >100%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 0.0%

- FY2020: -54.2%

- FY2021: 4.7%

- FY2022: 21.7%

- FY2023: 14.5%

- FY2024: 19.0%

- FY2025: 19.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.68×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: -0.27 to 4.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Per-share value change: $4.38

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.14

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.27

- FY2018: -$0.07

- FY2019: -$2.59

- FY2020: -$16.14

- FY2021: -$0.57

- FY2022: $2.78

- FY2023: $7.24

- FY2024: $4.11

- FY2025: $4.03

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -9.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 34.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.85×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -9.3%

- FY2019: -10.8%

- FY2020: -37.7%

- FY2021: -19.4%

- FY2022: -9.6%

- FY2023: 4.4%

- FY2024: -8.9%

- FY2025: -9.6%

## Holders

- [Chuck Akre](https://gigainvestors.com/AC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.9% a year for ten years · sales +7.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:13.045Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-02: Airbnb Says Economic Uncertainties Are Causing Softer US Travel Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-says-economic-uncertainties-causing-143921543.html))

- 2025-08-07: Airbnb dips as slower growth outlook renews fears of travel demand slowdown ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/airbnb-dips-as-slower-growth-outlook-renews-fears-of-travel-demand-slowdown-4175784))

- 2026-02-12: Airbnb forecast revenue above estimates on premium rentals demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-forecast-revenue-above-estimates-210754476.html))

- 2026-06-05: Airbnb hotels and experiences push could add $1.8B to 2030 revenue, Jefferies estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/airbnb-hotels-experiences-push-could-153900298.html))

- 2026-07-14: Jefferies Raises Airbnb to $175 as Product Changes Drive Booking Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jefferies-raises-airbnb-175-product-201857811.html))

- 2026-08-06: Airbnb beats Q2 estimates, lifts 2026 outlook on strong travel demand, shares up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/airbnb-beats-q2-estimates-lifts-204647355.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $2.6B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $4.8B 

- FY2020: $3.4B 

- FY2021: $6.0B 

- FY2022: $8.4B 

- FY2023: $9.9B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 72.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 74.7% 

- FY2018: 76.3% 

- FY2019: 75.1% 

- FY2020: 74.1% 

- FY2021: 80.7% 

- FY2022: 82.2% 

- FY2023: 82.8% 

- FY2024: 83.1% 

- FY2025: 72.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are USD 12.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 12305000000; grossProfit 8892000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABNB.US: Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 72.3% to 83.1% during 2023–25; it earns 16.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 82.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 83.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 9-year return on capital observations [[2018,1.000001],[2019,0],[2020,-0.5422137707979341],[2021,0.04711664117892395],[2022,0.21706437679099366],[2023,0.1449995223994651],[2024,0.18956882745252146],[2025,0.19946173456106203]]; median 0.1672841749259933. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 2 of 9 years; bought back USD 3.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 25000000; owner earnings 1949000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 3000000; upkeep 44000000; owner earnings 4792000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0006260434056761269.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 2713000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 33000000; owner earnings 2569000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,1527000000],[2021,11193000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 3789000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ABNB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.941 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may have exposure to greater than anticipated income tax liabilities." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); We may have exposure to greater than anticipated income tax liabilities.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1582882320645138. Price 174.28; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-12: $146.80 per share

- 2021-01: $183.63 per share

- 2021-02: $206.35 per share

- 2021-03: $187.94 per share

- 2021-04: $172.71 per share

- 2021-05: $140.40 per share

- 2021-06: $153.14 per share

- 2021-07: $144.01 per share

- 2021-08: $154.99 per share

- 2021-09: $167.75 per share

- 2021-10: $170.66 per share

- 2021-11: $172.54 per share

- 2021-12: $166.49 per share

- 2022-01: $153.97 per share

- 2022-02: $151.49 per share

- 2022-03: $171.76 per share

- 2022-04: $153.21 per share

- 2022-05: $120.87 per share

- 2022-06: $89.08 per share

- 2022-07: $110.98 per share

- 2022-08: $113.12 per share

- 2022-09: $105.04 per share

- 2022-10: $106.91 per share

- 2022-11: $102.14 per share

- 2022-12: $85.50 per share

- 2023-01: $111.11 per share

- 2023-02: $123.28 per share

- 2023-03: $124.40 per share

- 2023-04: $119.67 per share

- 2023-05: $109.77 per share

- 2023-06: $128.16 per share

- 2023-07: $152.19 per share

- 2023-08: $131.55 per share

- 2023-09: $137.21 per share

- 2023-10: $118.29 per share

- 2023-11: $126.34 per share

- 2023-12: $136.14 per share

- 2024-01: $144.14 per share

- 2024-02: $157.47 per share

- 2024-03: $164.96 per share

- 2024-04: $158.57 per share

- 2024-05: $144.93 per share

- 2024-06: $151.63 per share

- 2024-07: $139.56 per share

- 2024-08: $117.31 per share

- 2024-09: $126.81 per share

- 2024-10: $134.79 per share

- 2024-11: $136.11 per share

- 2024-12: $131.41 per share

- 2025-01: $131.17 per share

- 2025-02: $138.87 per share

- 2025-03: $119.46 per share

- 2025-04: $121.92 per share

- 2025-05: $129.00 per share

- 2025-06: $132.34 per share

- 2025-07: $132.41 per share

- 2025-08: $130.53 per share

- 2025-09: $121.42 per share

- 2025-10: $126.54 per share

- 2025-11: $116.99 per share

- 2025-12: $135.72 per share

- 2026-01: $129.37 per share

- 2026-02: $135.11 per share

- 2026-03: $126.28 per share

- 2026-04: $140.36 per share

- 2026-05: $133.31 per share

- 2026-06: $143.10 per share

- 2026-07: $151.52 per share

- 2026-08: $183.22 per share

- 2026-09: $160.65 per share

- 2026-10: $165.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2024: low $59.76 per share, central $65.78 per share, high $73.80 per share

- FY2025: low $67.38 per share, central $74.29 per share, high $83.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:31:43.323Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000155972026000004/abnb-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.