# Arcosa (ACA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ACA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:09.149Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $147.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $50.75 per share, central $61.08 per share, high $69.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $61.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:09.149Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 6.5%

- FY2019: 11.1%

- FY2020: 9.3%

- FY2021: 5.4%

- FY2022: 16.4%

- FY2023: 8.1%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: 11.3%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 10.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 75.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 0.94×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 1.28×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.04×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.0% vs 8.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.52 to 3.27 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: $3.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $928M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.27

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.52

- FY2017: $1.84

- FY2018: $1.55

- FY2019: $2.34

- FY2020: $2.20

- FY2021: $1.43

- FY2022: $5.07

- FY2023: $3.27

- FY2024: $1.92

- FY2025: $4.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.63×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.63×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.9%

- FY2017: -4.5%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -10.7%

- FY2020: -5.8%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: 2.1%

- FY2023: -2.8%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -2.7%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.2% a year for ten years · sales -4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:13.223Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-08: Earnings call transcript: Arcosa Q2 2025 beats EPS forecast, stock surges ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-arcosa-q2-2025-beats-eps-forecast-stock-surges-93CH-4181051))

- 2026-08-06: Arcosa misses top-line and bottom-line estimates; suspends FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4627272-arcosa-misses-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-suspends-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $1.5B 

- FY2019: $1.7B 

- FY2020: $1.9B 

- FY2021: $2.0B 

- FY2022: $2.2B 

- FY2023: $2.3B 

- FY2024: $2.6B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

- FY2026: $2.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 23%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: 20.2% 

- FY2018: 18.6% 

- FY2019: 19.1% 

- FY2020: 19.7% 

- FY2021: 17.5% 

- FY2022: 18.3% 

- FY2023: 19.2% 

- FY2024: 20.0% 

- FY2025: 22.4% 

- FY2026: 23.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2883400000; grossProfit 647200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ACA.US: Arcosa, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure-related products and solutions for the construction, engineered structures, and transportation markets in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products. The Construction Products segment offers natural and recycled aggregates; specialty materials; and construction site support equipment, including trench shields and shoring products for residential and non-residential construction, and specialty and other products, as well as for infrastructure construction. The Engineered Structures segment offers utility structures, wind towers, traffic and lighting structures, and telecommunication structures for electricity transmission and distribution, wind power generation, highway road construction, and wireless communication markets. This segment also sells its products to contractors and distributors serving state Departments of Transportation and state and municipality agencies. The Transportation Products segment offers inland barges, fiberglass barge covers, winches, marine hardware, and other transportation and industrial equipment to the commercial marine transportation companies, lessors, and industrial shippers. Arcosa, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.2% to 22.4% during 2023–25; it earns 9.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10008062539621194],[2018,0.0654494684000984],[2019,0.1114649759395938],[2020,0.093158010905705],[2021,0.054176178348273936],[2022,0.16415397846094484],[2023,0.08054733051258275],[2024,0.05411451802880048],[2025,0.11294233623957693],[2026,0.10664866157991487]]; median 0.09661931815095848. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.17476920054999018],[2022,0.18329766363474229],[2023,0.19229602669093115]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 12.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 84800000; owner earnings 103800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 82400000; owner earnings 73000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 44800000; owner earnings 98500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 85400000; owner earnings 113700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 82100000; owner earnings 139000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 85100000; owner earnings 128800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 138000000; owner earnings 261900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 34772917.7462948; upkeep 168727082.2537052; owner earnings 149972917.7462948. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23186131382146755.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 189700000; owner earnings 99000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 165600000; owner earnings 265800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,9900000],[2017,9900000],[2018,9900000],[2019,9900000],[2020,9800000],[2021,9800000],[2022,9800000],[2023,9800000],[2024,9700000],[2025,10000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 12900000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ACA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.711 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27);  management employees and skilled or professional labor, and an inability to retain their services in the future;

•an inability or failure to maintain safe work sites;

•collective bargaining agreement disputes with labor unions and the risk of strikes or work stoppages;

•equipment failures or other material disruptions at our manufacturing facilities, mining facilities or elsewhere in our supply chain;

•damage to our facilities as a result of natural disasters or similar incidents;

•fluctuations in the price and supply of raw materials, parts, and components used in production, including tariffs on foreign imports;

•reductions in the availability of natural aggregates reserves, specialty materials reserves, and supply stock for recycled aggregates;

•reductions in the availability of energy supplies or an increase in energy costs;

•quarterly fluctuations in our financials due to the limited number of customers for certain products, variable purchase patterns, and timing of completion and delivery of orders;

•material nonpayment or nonperformance by our customers;

•reputational harm or product warranty and liability claims from defects in our products;

•claims arising from third-party misuse, improper installation, or inadequate maintenance or repair of our products;

•expense, unavailability, or inadequacy of insurance coverage;

•an inability to manage our operations or fulfill obligations as a result of our indebtedness and restrictions our indebtedness places on our current and future operations;

•any requirement to reduce the value of our long-lived assets, including intangible assets and/or goodwill;

•changes in accounting policies or inaccurate estimates in the application of accounting policies;

Risks Related to Economic, Geopolitical, and Legal Factors.

•the impact of pandemics, epidemics, or other public health emergencies, as well as governmental shutdowns related thereto;

•instability in the economy or negative conditions in credit markets;

•decreased demand for our products due to our participation in cyclical industries subject to downturns;

•the impact of increased prices and inflation on principal raw material prices, including the cost of steel and liquid asphalt;

•risks related to operations outside of the U.S.;

•increased costs due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates;

•trade policies and practices of competitors that violate U.S. or other foreign laws;

•dependence on government spending, funding, and routine operations from federal, state and local government agencies;

•repercussions from terrorist activities or armed conflict;

•litigated disputes and other claims that could increase costs and weaken our financial condition;

14

Table of Contents

Risks Related to Growth Strategy.

•uncertainty of organic growth and increased costs from related operational transitions;

•an inability to succe

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20624305308976476. Price 147.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.3360655737704916 → FY2025 5.424489795918367. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-10: $24.00 per share

- 2018-11: $27.34 per share

- 2018-12: $27.69 per share

- 2019-01: $29.43 per share

- 2019-02: $33.49 per share

- 2019-03: $30.55 per share

- 2019-04: $31.13 per share

- 2019-05: $33.89 per share

- 2019-06: $37.63 per share

- 2019-07: $37.50 per share

- 2019-08: $32.49 per share

- 2019-09: $34.21 per share

- 2019-10: $38.41 per share

- 2019-11: $39.21 per share

- 2019-12: $44.55 per share

- 2020-01: $43.75 per share

- 2020-02: $42.96 per share

- 2020-03: $39.74 per share

- 2020-04: $37.27 per share

- 2020-05: $38.17 per share

- 2020-06: $42.20 per share

- 2020-07: $42.22 per share

- 2020-08: $46.29 per share

- 2020-09: $44.09 per share

- 2020-10: $46.17 per share

- 2020-11: $51.89 per share

- 2020-12: $54.93 per share

- 2021-01: $55.79 per share

- 2021-02: $56.73 per share

- 2021-03: $65.09 per share

- 2021-04: $60.29 per share

- 2021-05: $63.50 per share

- 2021-06: $58.74 per share

- 2021-07: $54.76 per share

- 2021-08: $50.82 per share

- 2021-09: $50.17 per share

- 2021-10: $51.73 per share

- 2021-11: $51.17 per share

- 2021-12: $52.70 per share

- 2022-01: $46.66 per share

- 2022-02: $52.67 per share

- 2022-03: $57.25 per share

- 2022-04: $53.53 per share

- 2022-05: $52.87 per share

- 2022-06: $46.43 per share

- 2022-07: $51.56 per share

- 2022-08: $58.45 per share

- 2022-09: $57.18 per share

- 2022-10: $64.20 per share

- 2022-11: $61.10 per share

- 2022-12: $54.34 per share

- 2023-01: $59.27 per share

- 2023-02: $60.60 per share

- 2023-03: $63.11 per share

- 2023-04: $67.54 per share

- 2023-05: $65.66 per share

- 2023-06: $75.77 per share

- 2023-07: $77.18 per share

- 2023-08: $78.22 per share

- 2023-09: $71.90 per share

- 2023-10: $69.07 per share

- 2023-11: $74.20 per share

- 2023-12: $82.64 per share

- 2024-01: $78.28 per share

- 2024-02: $83.00 per share

- 2024-03: $85.86 per share

- 2024-04: $76.02 per share

- 2024-05: $87.91 per share

- 2024-06: $83.41 per share

- 2024-07: $92.91 per share

- 2024-08: $91.49 per share

- 2024-09: $94.76 per share

- 2024-10: $93.64 per share

- 2024-11: $108.64 per share

- 2024-12: $96.74 per share

- 2025-01: $101.30 per share

- 2025-02: $83.88 per share

- 2025-03: $77.12 per share

- 2025-04: $80.07 per share

- 2025-05: $86.27 per share

- 2025-06: $86.71 per share

- 2025-07: $85.88 per share

- 2025-08: $98.95 per share

- 2025-09: $93.71 per share

- 2025-10: $102.00 per share

- 2025-11: $106.54 per share

- 2025-12: $106.32 per share

- 2026-01: $114.47 per share

- 2026-02: $107.48 per share

- 2026-03: $106.14 per share

- 2026-04: $126.47 per share

- 2026-05: $126.75 per share

- 2026-06: $145.29 per share

- 2026-07: $145.20 per share

- 2026-08: $145.30 per share

- 2026-09: $146.15 per share

- 2026-10: $147.01 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $28.14 per share, central $31.44 per share, high $35.82 per share

- FY2020: low $29.73 per share, central $33.67 per share, high $38.91 per share

- FY2021: low $30.64 per share, central $34.78 per share, high $40.28 per share

- FY2022: low $36.47 per share, central $41.17 per share, high $47.43 per share

- FY2023: low $35.11 per share, central $39.79 per share, high $46.01 per share

- FY2024: low $40.19 per share, central $45.35 per share, high $52.21 per share

- FY2025: low $48.55 per share, central $59.41 per share, high $68.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:31:44.176Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1739445/000173944526000029/aca-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.