# Arch Capital Group (ACGL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ACGL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:09.576Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $99.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $107.00 per share, central $133.75 per share, high $178.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value $133.75 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:09.576Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.40×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $665M

- FY2017: $567M

- FY2018: $714M

- FY2019: $1.6B

- FY2020: $1.4B

- FY2021: $2.1B

- FY2022: $1.4B

- FY2023: $4.4B

- FY2024: $4.3B

- FY2025: $4.4B

### moat: pass

- Common book per share

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 13.4%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 8.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.9%

- FY2017: 6.8%

- FY2018: 8.2%

- FY2019: 14.9%

- FY2020: 11.1%

- FY2021: 16.5%

- FY2022: 11.9%

- FY2023: 25.1%

- FY2024: 21.4%

- FY2025: 18.6%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 16.4%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $15.45

- Ending book value per share: $62.19

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.9%

- FY2017: 0.2%

- FY2018: 5.8%

- FY2019: 24.6%

- FY2020: 15.8%

- FY2021: 6.1%

- FY2022: 1.0%

- FY2023: 44.9%

- FY2024: 24.0%

- FY2025: 19.0%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.1%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.7%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.23×

- Book value created per share: $46.74

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $37.89

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 99

- FY2017: 110

- FY2018: 109

- FY2019: 109

- FY2020: 109

- FY2021: 106

- FY2022: 100

- FY2023: 100

- FY2024: 101

- FY2025: 99

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 4.6% a year forever · "Arch Capital Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Premiums" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · net income +2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:13.281Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 4.6% a year forever

- 2025-04-29: Arch Capital's first-quarter profit halves on California wildfire losses ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/arch-capitals-first-quarter-profit-205202198.html))

- 2026-02-10: Arch Capital Tops Q4 Earnings Estimates on Solid Underwriting ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arch-capital-tops-q4-earnings-161400471.html))

- 2026-07-29: ACGL Q2 Earnings Beat on Reserve Gains, Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/acgl-q2-earnings-beat-gains-153300680.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947484/000094748426000017/acgl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $665M 

- FY2017: $567M 

- FY2018: $714M 

- FY2019: $1.6B 

- FY2020: $1.4B 

- FY2021: $2.1B 

- FY2022: $1.4B 

- FY2023: $4.4B 

- FY2024: $4.3B 

- FY2025: $4.4B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance diversified; annual sales are USD 19.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947484/000094748426000017/acgl-20251231.htm#000094748426000017 (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 19929000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ACGL.US: Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

### Why customers stay

It earns 13.4% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.08884554446948957],[2017,0.06805607897216343],[2018,0.08240534135381689],[2019,0.14879647256775938],[2020,0.11065403330843722],[2021,0.16467442592010065],[2022,0.11887417218543046],[2023,0.251269759744336],[2024,0.21370685342671336],[2025,0.18647330595482547]]; median 0.13383532237659493. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.9 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,28070000],[2017,46041000],[2018,41645000],[2019,41612000],[2020,41612000],[2021,47000000],[2022,40000000],[2023,40000000],[2024,1906000000],[2025,47000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947484/000094748426000017/acgl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 1889000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ACGL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.786 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Risks Relating to Our Mortgage Operations" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947484/000094748426000017/acgl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Risks Relating to Our Mortgage Operations

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 4.6% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Price 99.31; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 5.3498962275674895; discount 0.1; growth 0.04612933010202911. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $25.99 per share

- 2016-11: $27.57 per share

- 2016-12: $28.76 per share

- 2017-01: $29.45 per share

- 2017-02: $31.52 per share

- 2017-03: $31.59 per share

- 2017-04: $32.32 per share

- 2017-05: $32.42 per share

- 2017-06: $31.10 per share

- 2017-07: $32.42 per share

- 2017-08: $32.45 per share

- 2017-09: $32.83 per share

- 2017-10: $33.21 per share

- 2017-11: $31.56 per share

- 2017-12: $30.26 per share

- 2018-01: $30.31 per share

- 2018-02: $29.41 per share

- 2018-03: $28.53 per share

- 2018-04: $26.71 per share

- 2018-05: $26.15 per share

- 2018-06: $26.46 per share

- 2018-07: $30.56 per share

- 2018-08: $30.57 per share

- 2018-09: $29.81 per share

- 2018-10: $28.37 per share

- 2018-11: $28.62 per share

- 2018-12: $26.72 per share

- 2019-01: $29.35 per share

- 2019-02: $32.67 per share

- 2019-03: $32.32 per share

- 2019-04: $33.78 per share

- 2019-05: $34.43 per share

- 2019-06: $37.08 per share

- 2019-07: $38.69 per share

- 2019-08: $39.50 per share

- 2019-09: $41.98 per share

- 2019-10: $41.76 per share

- 2019-11: $41.97 per share

- 2019-12: $42.89 per share

- 2020-01: $44.16 per share

- 2020-02: $40.43 per share

- 2020-03: $28.46 per share

- 2020-04: $24.03 per share

- 2020-05: $28.22 per share

- 2020-06: $28.65 per share

- 2020-07: $30.75 per share

- 2020-08: $31.54 per share

- 2020-09: $29.25 per share

- 2020-10: $30.21 per share

- 2020-11: $32.20 per share

- 2020-12: $36.07 per share

- 2021-01: $31.41 per share

- 2021-02: $35.82 per share

- 2021-03: $38.37 per share

- 2021-04: $39.71 per share

- 2021-05: $39.89 per share

- 2021-06: $38.94 per share

- 2021-07: $39.00 per share

- 2021-08: $41.10 per share

- 2021-09: $38.18 per share

- 2021-10: $41.82 per share

- 2021-11: $40.38 per share

- 2021-12: $44.45 per share

- 2022-01: $46.32 per share

- 2022-02: $47.11 per share

- 2022-03: $48.42 per share

- 2022-04: $45.67 per share

- 2022-05: $47.46 per share

- 2022-06: $45.49 per share

- 2022-07: $44.40 per share

- 2022-08: $45.72 per share

- 2022-09: $45.54 per share

- 2022-10: $57.50 per share

- 2022-11: $59.91 per share

- 2022-12: $62.78 per share

- 2023-01: $64.35 per share

- 2023-02: $70.00 per share

- 2023-03: $67.87 per share

- 2023-04: $75.07 per share

- 2023-05: $69.70 per share

- 2023-06: $74.85 per share

- 2023-07: $77.69 per share

- 2023-08: $76.86 per share

- 2023-09: $79.71 per share

- 2023-10: $86.68 per share

- 2023-11: $83.69 per share

- 2023-12: $74.27 per share

- 2024-01: $82.43 per share

- 2024-02: $87.59 per share

- 2024-03: $92.44 per share

- 2024-04: $93.54 per share

- 2024-05: $102.63 per share

- 2024-06: $100.89 per share

- 2024-07: $95.78 per share

- 2024-08: $113.09 per share

- 2024-09: $111.88 per share

- 2024-10: $98.56 per share

- 2024-11: $100.72 per share

- 2024-12: $92.35 per share

- 2025-01: $93.07 per share

- 2025-02: $92.91 per share

- 2025-03: $96.18 per share

- 2025-04: $90.68 per share

- 2025-05: $95.04 per share

- 2025-06: $91.05 per share

- 2025-07: $86.06 per share

- 2025-08: $91.53 per share

- 2025-09: $90.73 per share

- 2025-10: $86.31 per share

- 2025-11: $93.92 per share

- 2025-12: $95.92 per share

- 2026-01: $96.04 per share

- 2026-02: $100.15 per share

- 2026-03: $95.99 per share

- 2026-04: $94.46 per share

- 2026-05: $89.34 per share

- 2026-06: $97.06 per share

- 2026-07: $100.53 per share

- 2026-08: $98.07 per share

- 2026-09: $92.36 per share

- 2026-10: $96.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $25.60 per share, central $32.00 per share, high $42.67 per share

- FY2017: low $19.92 per share, central $24.90 per share, high $33.20 per share

- FY2018: low $20.77 per share, central $25.96 per share, high $34.61 per share

- FY2019: low $25.46 per share, central $31.82 per share, high $42.43 per share

- FY2020: low $26.84 per share, central $33.55 per share, high $44.74 per share

- FY2021: low $33.65 per share, central $42.06 per share, high $56.08 per share

- FY2022: low $34.32 per share, central $42.89 per share, high $57.19 per share

- FY2023: low $54.95 per share, central $68.69 per share, high $91.59 per share

- FY2024: low $60.09 per share, central $75.12 per share, high $100.15 per share

- FY2025: low $95.17 per share, central $118.97 per share, high $158.62 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947484/000094748426000017/acgl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.