# Adobe Systems (ADBE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADBE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:12.135Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $251.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $309.68 per share, central $445.72 per share, high $521.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value $445.72 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:12.135Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.3% at the stated quote. About 15.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.29×

- FY2020: 0.33×

- FY2021: 0.37×

- FY2022: 0.35×

- FY2023: 0.34×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.37×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 87.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 89.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 8

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 39.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.9%

- FY2017: 16.5%

- FY2018: 19.4%

- FY2019: 20.5%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 25.8%

- FY2023: 25.8%

- FY2024: 26.8%

- FY2025: 38.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $30B

- Net income, five-year total: $28B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.09×

- FY2024: 1.12×

- FY2025: 1.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.5% vs 26.8%

- Per-share earnings: 2.32 to 12.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Market cap gain: $81B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $37B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 23.3%

- Per-share value change: $10.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $12.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.89

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $9.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $41B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.32

- FY2017: $3.38

- FY2018: $5.20

- FY2019: $6.00

- FY2020: $10.83

- FY2021: $10.02

- FY2022: $10.10

- FY2023: $11.82

- FY2024: $12.36

- FY2025: $16.70

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -9.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 19.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.41×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.1%

- FY2017: -8.4%

- FY2018: -7.7%

- FY2019: -7.1%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: -8.8%

- FY2022: -11.3%

- FY2023: -6.3%

- FY2024: -8.3%

- FY2025: -9.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 62% since Nov 2021 · "Adobe beats Q3 targets, but soft Q4 sales guidance triggers dip" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +10.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:13.966Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-19: Barclays Calls Adobe’s (ADBE) New Pricing Plan Supportive to Future Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-calls-adobe-adbe-pricing-202644375.html))

- 2025-12-10: Adobe Earnings Show ‘Rapid Adoption’ of AI Tools. The Stock Is Up. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d6c6d9f2-ed4f-3363-94be-bd8da51779e6/adobe-earnings-show-%E2%80%98rapid.html))

- 2026-02-24: Adobe Downgrades Spotlight AI Competition And Questions Around Growth Durability ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adobe-downgrades-spotlight-ai-competition-010958111.html))

- 2026-06-12: Adobe hit by multiple downgrades after ARR concerns, CFO departure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/adobe-hit-multiple-downgrades-arr-120935050.html))

- 2026-07-14: Adobe (ADBE) Buys Topaz Labs As AI Revenue Runs At 3x Prior Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/adobe-adbe-buys-topaz-labs-151455256.html))

- 2026-09-11: Adobe Issues Weak Revenue Outlook, Maintains Full-Year ARR Growth Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/adobe-issues-weak-revenue-outlook-110034036.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm; observed 2026-01-15.

- FY2016: $5.9B 

- FY2017: $7.3B 

- FY2018: $9.0B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $13B 

- FY2021: $16B 

- FY2022: $18B 

- FY2023: $19B 

- FY2024: $22B 

- FY2025: $24B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 89.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm; observed 2026-01-15.

- FY2016: 86.0% 

- FY2017: 86.2% 

- FY2018: 86.8% 

- FY2019: 85.0% 

- FY2020: 86.6% 

- FY2021: 88.2% 

- FY2022: 87.7% 

- FY2023: 87.9% 

- FY2024: 89.0% 

- FY2025: 89.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Gets 74.3% of sales from Digital Media; keeps 89.3 cents per sales dollar after product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); FY2025: revenue 23769000000; grossProfit 21218000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); ed to assess the health and trajectory of our overall Digital Media segment. Digital Media ARR was calculated as the sum of the annual value of Digital Media subscriptions and services and the annual value of Digital Media Enterprise Term License Agreements. Digital Media ARR grew to $19.20 billion at the end of fiscal 2025, representing 11.5% year-over-year growth. Our success in driving growth in ARR has positively affected our revenue growth. Digital Media segment revenue grew to $17.65 billion in fiscal 2025, up from $15.86 billion in fiscal 2024, representing 11% year-over-year growth. Digital Experience Our Digital Experience apps and services are designed to accelerate customer experience orchestration at scale and supply intelligence for businesses of any size in any industry. Digital Experience is comprised of solutions to deliver actionable data, with products such as Adobe Analytics and Adobe Real-Time Customer Data Platform; optimize personalized content delivery, with products such as Adobe Experience Manager, Adobe Commerce and Adobe GenStudio for Performance Marketing; and manage customer journeys, with products such as

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 87.9% to 89.3% during 2023–25; it earns 25.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 87.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 89%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 89.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1292885245737041],[2017,0.1651207158647822],[2018,0.1939529143784923],[2019,0.20519694811646516],[2020,3.4224555735056543],[2021,4.884448882821038],[2022,0.25836250303242286],[2023,0.25774567666083986],[2024,0.2682199951049083],[2025,0.3889848504671488]]; median 0.25805408984663136. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 88% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.8818498574596135],[2022,0.8770305577643985],[2023,0.878716059559998]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back USD 11.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 203805000; owner earnings 1296512000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 178122000; owner earnings 1841829000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 266579000; owner earnings 2670687000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 333981000; owner earnings 3354146000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 419000000; owner earnings 5598000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 330000000; owner earnings 5353000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 442000000; owner earnings 5170000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 360000000; owner earnings 5940000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 183000000; owner earnings 6234000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 179000000; owner earnings 7769000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); FY2025: cash repurchases 11281000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADBE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.22899999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Some of our enterprise solutions have extended and complex sales cycles" (SEC filing, Jan 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm (filed 2026-01-15); Some of our enterprise solutions have extended and complex sales cycles

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 28%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.025563213518801225. Price 251.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5460245601028464 → FY2025 18.194379391100703. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $107.51 per share

- 2016-11: $102.81 per share

- 2016-12: $102.95 per share

- 2017-01: $113.38 per share

- 2017-02: $118.34 per share

- 2017-03: $130.13 per share

- 2017-04: $133.74 per share

- 2017-05: $141.86 per share

- 2017-06: $141.44 per share

- 2017-07: $146.49 per share

- 2017-08: $155.16 per share

- 2017-09: $149.18 per share

- 2017-10: $175.16 per share

- 2017-11: $181.47 per share

- 2017-12: $175.24 per share

- 2018-01: $199.76 per share

- 2018-02: $209.13 per share

- 2018-03: $216.08 per share

- 2018-04: $221.60 per share

- 2018-05: $249.28 per share

- 2018-06: $243.81 per share

- 2018-07: $244.68 per share

- 2018-08: $263.51 per share

- 2018-09: $269.95 per share

- 2018-10: $245.76 per share

- 2018-11: $250.89 per share

- 2018-12: $226.24 per share

- 2019-01: $247.82 per share

- 2019-02: $262.50 per share

- 2019-03: $266.49 per share

- 2019-04: $289.25 per share

- 2019-05: $270.90 per share

- 2019-06: $294.65 per share

- 2019-07: $298.86 per share

- 2019-08: $284.51 per share

- 2019-09: $276.25 per share

- 2019-10: $277.93 per share

- 2019-11: $309.53 per share

- 2019-12: $329.81 per share

- 2020-01: $351.14 per share

- 2020-02: $345.12 per share

- 2020-03: $318.24 per share

- 2020-04: $353.64 per share

- 2020-05: $386.60 per share

- 2020-06: $435.31 per share

- 2020-07: $444.32 per share

- 2020-08: $513.39 per share

- 2020-09: $490.43 per share

- 2020-10: $447.10 per share

- 2020-11: $478.47 per share

- 2020-12: $500.12 per share

- 2021-01: $458.77 per share

- 2021-02: $459.67 per share

- 2021-03: $475.37 per share

- 2021-04: $508.34 per share

- 2021-05: $504.58 per share

- 2021-06: $585.64 per share

- 2021-07: $621.63 per share

- 2021-08: $663.70 per share

- 2021-09: $575.72 per share

- 2021-10: $650.36 per share

- 2021-11: $669.85 per share

- 2021-12: $567.06 per share

- 2022-01: $534.30 per share

- 2022-02: $467.68 per share

- 2022-03: $455.62 per share

- 2022-04: $395.95 per share

- 2022-05: $416.48 per share

- 2022-06: $366.06 per share

- 2022-07: $410.12 per share

- 2022-08: $373.44 per share

- 2022-09: $275.20 per share

- 2022-10: $318.50 per share

- 2022-11: $344.93 per share

- 2022-12: $336.53 per share

- 2023-01: $370.34 per share

- 2023-02: $323.95 per share

- 2023-03: $385.37 per share

- 2023-04: $377.56 per share

- 2023-05: $417.79 per share

- 2023-06: $488.99 per share

- 2023-07: $546.17 per share

- 2023-08: $559.34 per share

- 2023-09: $509.90 per share

- 2023-10: $532.06 per share

- 2023-11: $611.01 per share

- 2023-12: $596.60 per share

- 2024-01: $617.78 per share

- 2024-02: $560.28 per share

- 2024-03: $504.60 per share

- 2024-04: $462.83 per share

- 2024-05: $444.76 per share

- 2024-06: $555.54 per share

- 2024-07: $551.65 per share

- 2024-08: $574.41 per share

- 2024-09: $517.78 per share

- 2024-10: $478.08 per share

- 2024-11: $515.93 per share

- 2024-12: $444.68 per share

- 2025-01: $437.45 per share

- 2025-02: $438.56 per share

- 2025-03: $383.53 per share

- 2025-04: $374.98 per share

- 2025-05: $415.09 per share

- 2025-06: $386.88 per share

- 2025-07: $357.69 per share

- 2025-08: $356.70 per share

- 2025-09: $352.75 per share

- 2025-10: $340.31 per share

- 2025-11: $320.13 per share

- 2025-12: $349.99 per share

- 2026-01: $293.25 per share

- 2026-02: $262.41 per share

- 2026-03: $243.08 per share

- 2026-04: $246.10 per share

- 2026-05: $259.21 per share

- 2026-06: $205.02 per share

- 2026-07: $250.41 per share

- 2026-08: $292.79 per share

- 2026-09: $239.94 per share

- 2026-10: $236.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $29.96 per share, central $32.82 per share, high $36.62 per share

- FY2017: low $37.36 per share, central $40.95 per share, high $45.73 per share

- FY2018: low $50.03 per share, central $56.09 per share, high $64.15 per share

- FY2019: low $70.70 per share, central $79.34 per share, high $90.84 per share

- FY2020: low $97.49 per share, central $109.31 per share, high $125.03 per share

- FY2021: low $119.10 per share, central $133.94 per share, high $153.71 per share

- FY2022: low $134.90 per share, central $151.81 per share, high $174.33 per share

- FY2023: low $157.66 per share, central $177.15 per share, high $203.11 per share

- FY2024: low $229.09 per share, central $326.59 per share, high $380.96 per share

- FY2025: low $261.70 per share, central $375.19 per share, high $438.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm); period 2025-11-28, filed 2026-01-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.