Margins varied 12.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 27.0%
- Worst year
- 21.6%
- Latest · LTM
- 35.5%
# Analog Devices (ADI.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADI Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:12.675Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $403.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $109.00 per share, central $123.45 per share, high $142.69 per share. Buy at or below the central value $123.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:12.675Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 4 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.12× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.22× - FY2018: 0.31× - FY2019: 0.29× - FY2020: 0.27× - FY2021: 0.23× - FY2022: 0.27× - FY2023: 0.31× - FY2024: 0.22× - FY2025: 0.27× - LTM to Jul 2026: 0.36× ### moat: fail - Recent gross margin fell 4.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp) - ROIC, median of available years: 22.5% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.8% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 65.5% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.5% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 4.6% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.4% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 79.6% - FY2017: 21.1% - FY2018: 38.2% - FY2019: 36.5% - FY2020: 36.2% - FY2021: 10.6% - FY2022: 19.8% - FY2023: 23.9% - FY2024: 13.8% - FY2025: 20.6% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.55× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $18B - Net income, five-year total: $11B - Return on incremental invested capital: >100% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.9% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.53× - FY2022: 1.58× - FY2023: 1.31× - FY2024: 1.84× - FY2025: 1.65× ### management: fail - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 38.2% vs 20.6% - Per-share earnings: 2.30 to 4.56 (three-year endpoint medians) - five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.6% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.0% - Market cap gain: $91B - Cumulative retained earnings: $5.8B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.6% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.0% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 9.0% - Per-share value change: $2.27 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.30 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.56 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36 - Average buyback yield: 1.8% - Buyback history: 10 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: $42B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $17B - ROIC, first three-year median: 38.2% - ROIC, last three-year median: 20.6% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $2.76 - FY2017: $2.30 - FY2018: $4.02 - FY2019: $3.66 - FY2020: $3.28 - FY2021: $3.46 - FY2022: $5.25 - FY2023: $6.55 - FY2024: $3.28 - FY2025: $4.56 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -5.3% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92× - Restructuring years, last five: 2 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.7% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 2.12× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.03× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -5.3% - FY2017: -1.5% - FY2018: -4.6% - FY2019: -4.2% - FY2020: -3.7% - FY2021: -2.6% - FY2022: -3.4% - FY2023: -3.1% - FY2024: -4.6% - FY2025: -5.3% ## Holders - [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 16.2% a year for ten years · "ADI's Communications Segment Surges on AI Demand: What's Ahead?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +16.9% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.109Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 16.2% a year for ten years - 2025-05-22: Analog Devices forecasts third-quarter results above estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipmaker-analog-devices-beats-second-111154829.html)) - 2025-08-20: Analog Devices Eyes Solid Finish To 2025 Fueled By Strong Industrial, Auto Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analog-devices-eyes-solid-finish-123255387.html)) - 2025-11-25: Analog Devices forecasts $3.1B Q1 revenue as industrial and communications lead FY26 growth ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4526002-analog-devices-forecasts-3_1b-q1-revenue-as-industrial-and-communications-lead-fy26-growth?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news)) - 2026-02-19: ADI Q4 Deep Dive: Industrial and Data Center Momentum Power Strong Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adi-q4-deep-dive-industrial-053240995.html)) - 2026-05-20: Analog Devices beats estimates, guides above expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/analog-devices-beats-estimates-guides-115119783.html)) - 2026-09-14: ADI's Communications Segment Surges on AI Demand: What's Ahead? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/adis-communications-segment-surges-ai-142900496.html)) ### Sales · FY2024–2025 sales +16.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm; observed 2025-11-25. - FY2016: $3.4B - FY2017: $5.2B - FY2018: $6.2B - FY2019: $6.0B - FY2020: $5.6B - FY2021: $7.3B - FY2022: $12B - FY2023: $12B - FY2024: $9.4B - FY2025: $11B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 61.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm; observed 2025-11-25. - FY2016: 65.1% - FY2017: 67.2% - FY2018: 68.3% - FY2019: 67.0% - FY2020: 65.9% - FY2021: 66.4% - FY2022: 65.0% - FY2023: 64.0% - FY2024: 57.1% - FY2025: 61.5% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 11 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm (filed 2025-11-25); FY2025: revenue 11019707000; grossProfit 6773478000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADI.US: Analog Devices, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, testing, and marketing of integrated circuits (ICs), software, and subsystems products in the United States, rest of North and South America, Europe, Japan, China, and rest of Asia. It provides data converter products, which translate real-world analog signals into digital data, as well as translates digital data into analog signals; power management and reference products for power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing, and energy management applications in the automotive, communications, industrial, and consumer markets; and power ICs that include performance, integration, and software design simulation tools for accurate power supply designs. The company also offers amplifiers to condition analog signals; and radio frequency and microwave ICs to support cellular infrastructure; and micro-electro-mechanical systems technology solutions, including accelerometers used to sense acceleration, gyroscopes for sense rotation, inertial measurement units to sense multiple degrees of freedom, and broadband switches for radio and instrument systems, as well as isolators. In addition, it provides digital signal processing and system products for numeric calculations. The company serves clients in the industrial, automotive, consumer, instrumentation, aerospace, defense and healthcare, and communications markets through a direct sales force, third-party distributors, and independent sales representatives, as well as online. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 57.1% to 64% during 2023–25; it earns 22.5% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 64%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 57.1%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm (filed 2025-11-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61.5%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.7960954639203962],[2017,0.2110314411663081],[2018,0.3816191807248283],[2019,0.36530522382156777],[2020,0.3623212360554895],[2021,0.10630365474663882],[2022,0.19805240933266355],[2023,0.2388044711091393],[2024,0.13799784009662228],[2025,0.20631258205515735]]; median 0.2249179561377237. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 2.2 billion of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 127397000; owner earnings 944057000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 204098000; owner earnings 1185340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 254876000; owner earnings 2051167000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 275372000; owner earnings 1898890000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 165692000; owner earnings 1865992000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 343676000; owner earnings 2121380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 699308000; owner earnings 4346752000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1261463000; owner earnings 4346219000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 730463000; owner earnings 3009126000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm (filed 2025-11-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 533552000; owner earnings 3732635000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,513180000],[2017,602119000],[2018,703307000],[2019,777481000],[2020,886155000],[2021,1109344000],[2022,1544552000],[2023,1679106000],[2024,1795459000],[2025,1924413000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm (filed 2025-11-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 2164638000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.2% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.23500000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it Many of these factors and risks are present and may be exacerbated within our business operations in China. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm (filed 2025-11-25); A significant portion of our revenue is derived from customers in international markets, and we expect that international sales will continue to account for a significant portion of our revenue in the future. Many of these factors and risks are present and may be exacerbated within our business operations in China. For example, changes in U.S.-China relations, the political environment or international trade policies could result in further revisions to laws or regulations or their interpretation and enforcement, increased taxation, trade sanctions, the imposition of 11 additional import or export duties and tariffs, restrictions on imports or exports, currency revaluations or retaliatory actions, which have had and may continue to have an adverse effect on our business plans and operating results. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 16.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2221174291939152. Price 403.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.4147226640410007 → FY2025 7.514731965798888. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $64.10 per share - 2016-11: $74.24 per share - 2016-12: $72.62 per share - 2017-01: $74.94 per share - 2017-02: $81.93 per share - 2017-03: $81.95 per share - 2017-04: $76.20 per share - 2017-05: $85.76 per share - 2017-06: $77.80 per share - 2017-07: $79.01 per share - 2017-08: $83.67 per share - 2017-09: $86.17 per share - 2017-10: $91.30 per share - 2017-11: $86.11 per share - 2017-12: $89.03 per share - 2018-01: $91.88 per share - 2018-02: $90.15 per share - 2018-03: $91.13 per share - 2018-04: $87.35 per share - 2018-05: $97.18 per share - 2018-06: $95.92 per share - 2018-07: $96.14 per share - 2018-08: $98.85 per share - 2018-09: $92.46 per share - 2018-10: $83.71 per share - 2018-11: $91.92 per share - 2018-12: $85.83 per share - 2019-01: $98.86 per share - 2019-02: $106.96 per share - 2019-03: $105.27 per share - 2019-04: $116.24 per share - 2019-05: $96.62 per share - 2019-06: $112.87 per share - 2019-07: $117.46 per share - 2019-08: $109.83 per share - 2019-09: $111.73 per share - 2019-10: $106.63 per share - 2019-11: $112.95 per share - 2019-12: $118.84 per share - 2020-01: $109.75 per share - 2020-02: $109.05 per share - 2020-03: $89.65 per share - 2020-04: $109.60 per share - 2020-05: $112.95 per share - 2020-06: $122.64 per share - 2020-07: $114.85 per share - 2020-08: $116.88 per share - 2020-09: $116.74 per share - 2020-10: $118.53 per share - 2020-11: $139.08 per share - 2020-12: $147.73 per share - 2021-01: $147.33 per share - 2021-02: $155.82 per share - 2021-03: $155.08 per share - 2021-04: $153.16 per share - 2021-05: $164.60 per share - 2021-06: $172.16 per share - 2021-07: $167.42 per share - 2021-08: $162.95 per share - 2021-09: $167.48 per share - 2021-10: $173.49 per share - 2021-11: $180.25 per share - 2021-12: $175.77 per share - 2022-01: $163.97 per share - 2022-02: $160.29 per share - 2022-03: $165.18 per share - 2022-04: $154.38 per share - 2022-05: $168.40 per share - 2022-06: $146.09 per share - 2022-07: $171.96 per share - 2022-08: $151.53 per share - 2022-09: $139.34 per share - 2022-10: $142.62 per share - 2022-11: $171.91 per share - 2022-12: $164.03 per share - 2023-01: $171.47 per share - 2023-02: $183.47 per share - 2023-03: $197.22 per share - 2023-04: $179.88 per share - 2023-05: $177.69 per share - 2023-06: $194.81 per share - 2023-07: $199.53 per share - 2023-08: $181.78 per share - 2023-09: $175.09 per share - 2023-10: $157.33 per share - 2023-11: $183.38 per share - 2023-12: $198.56 per share - 2024-01: $192.36 per share - 2024-02: $191.82 per share - 2024-03: $197.79 per share - 2024-04: $200.61 per share - 2024-05: $234.49 per share - 2024-06: $228.26 per share - 2024-07: $231.38 per share - 2024-08: $234.84 per share - 2024-09: $230.17 per share - 2024-10: $223.11 per share - 2024-11: $218.05 per share - 2024-12: $212.46 per share - 2025-01: $211.89 per share - 2025-02: $230.06 per share - 2025-03: $201.67 per share - 2025-04: $194.92 per share - 2025-05: $213.98 per share - 2025-06: $238.02 per share - 2025-07: $224.63 per share - 2025-08: $251.31 per share - 2025-09: $245.70 per share - 2025-10: $234.13 per share - 2025-11: $265.34 per share - 2025-12: $271.20 per share - 2026-01: $310.88 per share - 2026-02: $355.79 per share - 2026-03: $318.14 per share - 2026-04: $402.26 per share - 2026-05: $413.85 per share - 2026-06: $397.17 per share - 2026-07: $367.41 per share - 2026-08: $362.14 per share - 2026-09: $396.71 per share - 2026-10: $414.70 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $47.44 per share, central $60.12 per share, high $68.28 per share - FY2017: low $39.66 per share, central $44.75 per share, high $51.54 per share - FY2018: low $42.84 per share, central $48.50 per share, high $56.02 per share - FY2019: low $49.88 per share, central $56.56 per share, high $65.45 per share - FY2020: low $54.72 per share, central $61.92 per share, high $71.49 per share - FY2021: low $67.74 per share, central $76.46 per share, high $88.05 per share - FY2022: low $85.06 per share, central $96.46 per share, high $111.64 per share - FY2023: low $89.94 per share, central $102.15 per share, high $118.40 per share - FY2024: low $73.17 per share, central $82.66 per share, high $95.29 per share - FY2025: low $89.05 per share, central $100.37 per share, high $115.45 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:31:47.975Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6281/000000628125000153/adi-20251101.htm); period 2025-11-01, filed 2025-11-25. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
ADI · US
S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100
Not a wonderful business
2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 12.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Gross margin fell 4 percentage points (limit 4).
Each $1 of profit left $1.55 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Share growth was 4.6% over ten years and 6% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -5.3% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 26.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 7.38 USD.
| Value range | $109.00 – $142.69 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $123.45 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 403.95 / 123.45 = -227.2% |
| Return / year | About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 9.59/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 4.18/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |