# Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:13.042Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $82.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $75.70 per share, central $83.85 per share, high $94.71 per share. Buy at or below the central value $83.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:13.042Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 6.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 6.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.5%

- FY2017: 6.8%

- FY2018: 7.8%

- FY2019: 5.8%

- FY2020: 6.2%

- FY2021: 8.8%

- FY2022: 11.8%

- FY2023: 11.6%

- FY2024: 5.8%

- FY2025: 4.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $13B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -23.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.88×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 0.94×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.8% vs 5.8%

- Per-share earnings: 2.79 to 3.65 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- Market cap gain: $846M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.86

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.65

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.14

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $3.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $21B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.16

- FY2017: $2.79

- FY2018: $3.19

- FY2019: $2.44

- FY2020: $3.14

- FY2021: $4.79

- FY2022: $7.71

- FY2023: $6.43

- FY2024: $3.65

- FY2025: $2.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.06×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.5%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: 16.1%

- FY2019: 15.5%

- FY2020: 8.4%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: 1.4%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -1.9%

- FY2025: -8.3%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.7% a year for ten years · "ADM Raises 2026 EPS View: Can Biofuel Strength Sustain Growth?" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -6.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.195Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-17: Trump Says Coke Will Ditch Corn Syrup, Knocking ADM, Ingredion Stocks ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1b40bb7f-48aa-332d-a179-35b2ddb63d0a/trump-says-coke-will-ditch.html))

- 2025-08-05: Archer-Daniels Powers Ahead As CEO Says Biofuel Clarity Will Ignite Q4 Margin Upside ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/archer-daniels-powers-ahead-ceo-150609279.html))

- 2025-09-23: ADM to put US feed mills into joint venture as it cuts costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adm-alltech-launch-north-american-205020721.html))

- 2026-02-03: Archer Daniels Profit, Revenue Fall on Biofuel Policy and Trade Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1941489f-c571-3103-97c7-63ce47b6a185/archer-daniels-profit%2C.html))

- 2026-05-05: Archer Daniels Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Ethanol Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/archer-daniels-q1-earnings-beat-153000216.html))

- 2026-07-30: ADM to Expand North America Crush Capacity Amid Strong Biofuel Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/adm-expand-north-america-crush-130000195.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -6.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: $62B 

- FY2017: $61B 

- FY2018: $64B 

- FY2019: $65B 

- FY2020: $64B 

- FY2021: $85B 

- FY2022: $102B 

- FY2023: $94B 

- FY2024: $86B 

- FY2025: $80B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 6.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 5.8% 

- FY2017: 5.8% 

- FY2018: 6.5% 

- FY2019: 6.4% 

- FY2020: 6.9% 

- FY2021: 7.0% 

- FY2022: 7.5% 

- FY2023: 8.0% 

- FY2024: 6.8% 

- FY2025: 6.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm products; annual sales are USD 80.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 80269000000; grossProfit 5033000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADM.US: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.3% to 8% during 2023–25; it earns 6.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 6.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05525572442644356],[2017,0.06776118907774492],[2018,0.0776461361124645],[2019,0.05780399235411757],[2020,0.06204616958732732],[2021,0.08845553840190817],[2022,0.1177752578457728],[2023,0.11588986964563183],[2024,0.05767921047401916],[2025,0.04564167323209505]]; median 0.06490367933253612. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 7% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.07022956281012094],[2022,0.07454015518531648],[2023,0.0799808378133816]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 882000000; owner earnings 1297000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1049000000; owner earnings 1470000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 842000000; owner earnings 1909000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 828000000; owner earnings 1544000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 823000000; owner earnings 1925000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 173000000; upkeep 996000000; owner earnings 2709000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06386120339608711.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 291000000; upkeep 1028000000; owner earnings 4340000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06705069124423964.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1494000000; owner earnings 3048000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1563000000; owner earnings 1378000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1248000000; owner earnings 1011000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,701000000],[2017,730000000],[2018,758000000],[2019,789000000],[2020,809000000],[2021,834000000],[2022,899000000],[2023,977000000],[2024,985000000],[2025,987000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.707 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Transportation, inflationary impacts, and fluctuations in energy prices could affect the Company’s operating results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Transportation, inflationary impacts, and fluctuations in energy prices could affect the Company’s operating results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 2.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0024607987899359363. Price 82.93; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.5861513687600644 → FY2025 2.0888429752066116. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $43.57 per share

- 2016-11: $43.23 per share

- 2016-12: $45.65 per share

- 2017-01: $44.26 per share

- 2017-02: $46.97 per share

- 2017-03: $46.04 per share

- 2017-04: $45.75 per share

- 2017-05: $41.58 per share

- 2017-06: $41.38 per share

- 2017-07: $42.18 per share

- 2017-08: $41.32 per share

- 2017-09: $42.51 per share

- 2017-10: $40.87 per share

- 2017-11: $39.88 per share

- 2017-12: $40.08 per share

- 2018-01: $42.95 per share

- 2018-02: $41.52 per share

- 2018-03: $43.37 per share

- 2018-04: $45.38 per share

- 2018-05: $43.72 per share

- 2018-06: $45.83 per share

- 2018-07: $48.26 per share

- 2018-08: $50.40 per share

- 2018-09: $50.27 per share

- 2018-10: $47.25 per share

- 2018-11: $46.02 per share

- 2018-12: $40.97 per share

- 2019-01: $44.90 per share

- 2019-02: $42.50 per share

- 2019-03: $43.13 per share

- 2019-04: $44.60 per share

- 2019-05: $38.32 per share

- 2019-06: $40.80 per share

- 2019-07: $41.08 per share

- 2019-08: $38.05 per share

- 2019-09: $41.07 per share

- 2019-10: $42.04 per share

- 2019-11: $42.93 per share

- 2019-12: $46.35 per share

- 2020-01: $44.76 per share

- 2020-02: $37.65 per share

- 2020-03: $35.18 per share

- 2020-04: $37.14 per share

- 2020-05: $39.31 per share

- 2020-06: $39.90 per share

- 2020-07: $42.83 per share

- 2020-08: $44.76 per share

- 2020-09: $46.49 per share

- 2020-10: $46.24 per share

- 2020-11: $49.77 per share

- 2020-12: $50.41 per share

- 2021-01: $50.01 per share

- 2021-02: $56.58 per share

- 2021-03: $57.00 per share

- 2021-04: $63.13 per share

- 2021-05: $66.53 per share

- 2021-06: $60.60 per share

- 2021-07: $59.72 per share

- 2021-08: $60.00 per share

- 2021-09: $60.01 per share

- 2021-10: $64.24 per share

- 2021-11: $62.21 per share

- 2021-12: $67.59 per share

- 2022-01: $75.00 per share

- 2022-02: $78.45 per share

- 2022-03: $90.26 per share

- 2022-04: $89.56 per share

- 2022-05: $90.82 per share

- 2022-06: $77.60 per share

- 2022-07: $82.77 per share

- 2022-08: $87.89 per share

- 2022-09: $80.45 per share

- 2022-10: $96.98 per share

- 2022-11: $97.50 per share

- 2022-12: $92.85 per share

- 2023-01: $82.85 per share

- 2023-02: $79.60 per share

- 2023-03: $79.66 per share

- 2023-04: $78.08 per share

- 2023-05: $70.65 per share

- 2023-06: $75.56 per share

- 2023-07: $84.96 per share

- 2023-08: $79.30 per share

- 2023-09: $75.42 per share

- 2023-10: $71.57 per share

- 2023-11: $73.73 per share

- 2023-12: $72.22 per share

- 2024-01: $55.58 per share

- 2024-02: $53.11 per share

- 2024-03: $62.81 per share

- 2024-04: $58.66 per share

- 2024-05: $62.44 per share

- 2024-06: $60.45 per share

- 2024-07: $62.01 per share

- 2024-08: $60.99 per share

- 2024-09: $59.74 per share

- 2024-10: $55.21 per share

- 2024-11: $54.60 per share

- 2024-12: $50.52 per share

- 2025-01: $51.23 per share

- 2025-02: $47.20 per share

- 2025-03: $48.01 per share

- 2025-04: $47.75 per share

- 2025-05: $48.27 per share

- 2025-06: $52.78 per share

- 2025-07: $54.18 per share

- 2025-08: $62.64 per share

- 2025-09: $59.74 per share

- 2025-10: $60.53 per share

- 2025-11: $60.74 per share

- 2025-12: $57.49 per share

- 2026-01: $67.31 per share

- 2026-02: $69.04 per share

- 2026-03: $72.69 per share

- 2026-04: $74.54 per share

- 2026-05: $79.78 per share

- 2026-06: $76.40 per share

- 2026-07: $79.27 per share

- 2026-08: $81.29 per share

- 2026-09: $79.38 per share

- 2026-10: $83.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.99 per share, central $27.29 per share, high $31.70 per share

- FY2017: low $27.57 per share, central $31.37 per share, high $36.44 per share

- FY2018: low $31.23 per share, central $35.36 per share, high $40.86 per share

- FY2019: low $29.87 per share, central $33.99 per share, high $39.47 per share

- FY2020: low $30.09 per share, central $34.24 per share, high $39.76 per share

- FY2021: low $50.65 per share, central $59.88 per share, high $69.69 per share

- FY2022: low $63.05 per share, central $76.96 per share, high $89.71 per share

- FY2023: low $63.16 per share, central $75.60 per share, high $88.03 per share

- FY2024: low $60.26 per share, central $68.57 per share, high $79.63 per share

- FY2025: low $57.60 per share, central $65.55 per share, high $76.12 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7084/000000708426000011/adm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.