# Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADPT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:13.827Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $25.58 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 9

- Operating margin variation: 0.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.89×

- FY2019: -0.92×

- FY2020: -1.55×

- FY2021: -1.35×

- FY2022: -1.08×

- FY2023: -1.33×

- FY2024: -0.91×

- FY2025: -0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.12×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: -44.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -205.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -142.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -205.9%

- FY2019: -10.2%

- FY2020: -275.1%

- FY2021: -67.7%

- FY2022: -27.6%

- FY2023: -44.0%

- FY2024: -44.0%

- FY2025: -29.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$805M

- Net income, five-year total: -$852M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -10.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$207M

- FY2022: -$196M

- FY2023: -$214M

- FY2024: -$144M

- FY2025: -$45M

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -205.9% vs -44.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.55 to -1.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Per-share value change: -$0.53

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.08

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -205.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -44.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -$0.44

- FY2019: -$0.55

- FY2020: -$1.07

- FY2021: -$1.47

- FY2022: -$1.40

- FY2023: -$1.55

- FY2024: -$1.08

- FY2025: -$0.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.78×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.55×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -4.3%

- FY2019: -30.0%

- FY2020: 0.3%

- FY2021: -1.6%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -10.4%

- FY2024: -11.9%

- FY2025: -2.6%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Oct 2021 · "Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Surges to First Profit and Lifts Guidance—Has the Investment Case Evolved?" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.494Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-02: Adaptive Biotechnologies Shares Surge After Q1 Loss Narrows, Revenue Rises ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adaptive-biotechnologies-shares-surge-q1-163554955.html))

- 2025-08-05: Adaptive Biotechnologies soars 8.5% as MRD business achieves profitability ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/adaptive-biotechnologies-soars-85-as-mrd-business-achieves-profitability-93CH-4171574))

- 2025-11-07: Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Surges to First Profit and Lifts Guidance—Has the Investment Case Evolved? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adaptive-biotechnologies-adpt-surges-first-062545927.html))

- 2026-01-12: Adaptive Biotechnologies Rises 10% As Revenue Surges Over 50% ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adaptive-biotechnologies-rises-10-revenue-surges-over-50))

- 2026-05-11: Assessing Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Valuation After Strong MRD Growth And Raised Full Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/assessing-adaptive-biotechnologies-adpt-valuation-060725705.html))

- 2026-07-30: Adaptive Biotechnologies Q2 Net Loss Widens Despite Revenue Growth; Stock Down ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/adaptive-biotechnologies-q2-net-loss-widens-despite-revenue-growth-stock-down))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +11.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478320/000119312526076902/adpt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2018: $56M 

- FY2019: $85M 

- FY2020: $98M 

- FY2021: $154M 

- FY2022: $185M 

- FY2023: $170M 

- FY2024: $179M 

- FY2025: $277M 

- FY2026: $308M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478320/000119312526076902/adpt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2018: 64.7% 

- FY2019: 73.8% 

- FY2020: 77.1% 

- FY2021: 68.1% 

- FY2022: 68.7% 

- FY2023: 55.6% 

- FY2024: 59.7% 

- FY2025: 74.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in diagnostics & research; annual sales are USD 277 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478320/000119312526076902/adpt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 276976000; grossProfit 205617000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.6% to 74.2% during 2023–25; it lost 44% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478320/000119312526076902/adpt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,-2.058833019065577],[2019,-0.10191606626226454],[2020,-2.7508243899104516],[2021,-0.6774058982597384],[2022,-0.2763999671424602],[2023,-0.4404971130065746],[2024,-0.4396284440731814],[2025,-0.2941317907772527]]; median -0.440062778539878. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADPT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.288 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 14.1 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Closing price 25.58 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 1.8087980507695895; price multiple 14.14198781843914. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.29142457474868916. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-06: $48.30 per share

- 2019-07: $38.55 per share

- 2019-08: $50.85 per share

- 2019-09: $30.90 per share

- 2019-10: $26.07 per share

- 2019-11: $27.19 per share

- 2019-12: $29.92 per share

- 2020-01: $29.91 per share

- 2020-02: $28.10 per share

- 2020-03: $27.78 per share

- 2020-04: $32.01 per share

- 2020-05: $38.70 per share

- 2020-06: $48.38 per share

- 2020-07: $37.32 per share

- 2020-08: $41.61 per share

- 2020-09: $48.63 per share

- 2020-10: $46.08 per share

- 2020-11: $48.22 per share

- 2020-12: $59.13 per share

- 2021-01: $55.47 per share

- 2021-02: $56.57 per share

- 2021-03: $40.26 per share

- 2021-04: $41.60 per share

- 2021-05: $37.81 per share

- 2021-06: $40.86 per share

- 2021-07: $36.66 per share

- 2021-08: $36.32 per share

- 2021-09: $33.99 per share

- 2021-10: $33.41 per share

- 2021-11: $26.09 per share

- 2021-12: $28.06 per share

- 2022-01: $17.44 per share

- 2022-02: $14.43 per share

- 2022-03: $13.88 per share

- 2022-04: $8.25 per share

- 2022-05: $7.82 per share

- 2022-06: $8.09 per share

- 2022-07: $9.16 per share

- 2022-08: $8.92 per share

- 2022-09: $7.12 per share

- 2022-10: $7.78 per share

- 2022-11: $8.78 per share

- 2022-12: $7.64 per share

- 2023-01: $9.27 per share

- 2023-02: $8.55 per share

- 2023-03: $8.83 per share

- 2023-04: $7.14 per share

- 2023-05: $6.96 per share

- 2023-06: $6.71 per share

- 2023-07: $8.44 per share

- 2023-08: $6.77 per share

- 2023-09: $5.45 per share

- 2023-10: $4.44 per share

- 2023-11: $4.38 per share

- 2023-12: $4.90 per share

- 2024-01: $3.67 per share

- 2024-02: $4.11 per share

- 2024-03: $3.21 per share

- 2024-04: $2.62 per share

- 2024-05: $3.45 per share

- 2024-06: $3.62 per share

- 2024-07: $4.55 per share

- 2024-08: $4.70 per share

- 2024-09: $5.12 per share

- 2024-10: $4.84 per share

- 2024-11: $5.94 per share

- 2024-12: $6.00 per share

- 2025-01: $7.75 per share

- 2025-02: $8.26 per share

- 2025-03: $7.43 per share

- 2025-04: $7.36 per share

- 2025-05: $9.52 per share

- 2025-06: $11.65 per share

- 2025-07: $10.24 per share

- 2025-08: $13.18 per share

- 2025-09: $14.96 per share

- 2025-10: $17.36 per share

- 2025-11: $19.66 per share

- 2025-12: $16.24 per share

- 2026-01: $18.50 per share

- 2026-02: $16.02 per share

- 2026-03: $13.88 per share

- 2026-04: $14.10 per share

- 2026-05: $15.15 per share

- 2026-06: $21.45 per share

- 2026-07: $22.57 per share

- 2026-08: $24.92 per share

- 2026-09: $28.90 per share

- 2026-10: $25.58 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1478320/000119312526076902/adpt-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.