# Adyen NV (ADYEN.AS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ADYEN.AS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 942.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 865.10 per share, central EUR 1,068.17 per share, high EUR 1,186.41 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 1,068.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.67×

- FY2017: 0.70×

- FY2018: 0.74×

- FY2019: 0.76×

- FY2020: 0.73×

- FY2021: 0.75×

- FY2022: 0.71×

- FY2023: 0.61×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: 0.42×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- Recent gross margin fell 6.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 72.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 65.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.6%

- FY2017: 22.1%

- FY2018: 34.8%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 29.9%

- FY2021: 31.3%

- FY2022: 28.1%

- FY2023: 21.9%

- FY2024: 22.1%

- FY2025: 15.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 3.5B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 3.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 207.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -20.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -114.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.94×

- FY2022: 0.93×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.1% vs 21.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.33 to 29.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: EUR 29B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 4.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 37.4%

- Per-share value change: EUR 27.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 29.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 7.6M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 4.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 3.17

- FY2017: EUR 2.33

- FY2018: EUR 4.29

- FY2019: EUR 7.67

- FY2020: EUR 8.51

- FY2021: EUR 15.31

- FY2022: EUR 18.21

- FY2023: EUR 22.41

- FY2024: EUR 29.59

- FY2025: EUR 33.61

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.97×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.0%

- FY2017: -11.4%

- FY2018: -13.6%

- FY2019: -11.3%

- FY2020: -18.2%

- FY2021: -23.4%

- FY2022: -19.1%

- FY2023: -12.2%

- FY2024: -6.8%

- FY2025: 0.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 64% since Oct 2021 · "Adyen Shares Hit Two-Year Low After Revenue Miss, Flat Adjusted Earnings Forecast" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +32.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.673Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-14: Adyen Posts Earnings Miss and Cuts Revenue Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/839d709d-9f24-3e2c-b051-9e14c91b8b35/adyen-posts-earnings-miss-and.html))

- 2025-10-29: Adyen beats revenue estimates as payment volumes rise ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adyen-beats-revenue-estimates-payment-071717929.html))

- 2026-02-12: Adyen Shares Hit Two-Year Low After Revenue Miss, Flat Adjusted Earnings Forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a68a6468-bb5c-3608-a600-5a0018a6f11b/adyen-shares-hit-two-year-low.html))

- 2026-08-13: Adyen lifts 2026 revenue outlook after strong first half ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/adyen-lifts-2026-revenue-outlook-054128944.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +32.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 165M 

- FY2017: EUR 218M 

- FY2018: EUR 349M 

- FY2019: EUR 534M 

- FY2020: EUR 684M 

- FY2021: EUR 1.0B 

- FY2022: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2023: EUR 1.6B 

- FY2024: EUR 2.0B 

- FY2025: EUR 2.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 78.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 69.4% 

- FY2017: 70.3% 

- FY2018: 74.7% 

- FY2019: 77.0% 

- FY2020: 73.6% 

- FY2021: 75.9% 

- FY2022: 71.3% 

- FY2023: 61.9% 

- FY2024: 65.6% 

- FY2025: 78.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are EUR 2.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2025: revenue 2672702000; grossProfit 2093558000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.9% to 78.3% during 2023–25; it earns 25.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 61.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 65.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 78.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13573291105201946],[2017,0.2211455276634736],[2018,0.34772957861419546],[2019,1.8356654089640456],[2020,0.2992709977487628],[2021,0.31252692656385805],[2022,0.28106378724477016],[2023,0.21853484632510856],[2024,0.22102026032430827],[2025,0.15276715984430428]]; median 0.25110465745412186. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2016: growth capex 5464186.909471775; upkeep 7061813.090528225; owner earnings 93292186.90947178. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05857068089500437.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2017: growth capex 4590738.698100644; upkeep 6438261.301899356; owner earnings 69483738.69810064. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06606925280815572.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2018: growth capex 6762000; upkeep 7048000; owner earnings 131145999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05156085623321227.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2019: growth capex 6164000; upkeep 9022000; owner earnings 221945200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02777262134977463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2020: growth capex 5867000; upkeep 11230000; owner earnings 234722000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.024995526622983787.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2021: growth capex 36072000; upkeep 15315000; owner earnings 441124200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08177288845182377.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2022: growth capex 31962000; upkeep 63613000; owner earnings 523524400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06105159568493847.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 69743000; owner earnings 669419400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 101249000; owner earnings 882725800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 125793000; owner earnings 1022107800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ADYEN.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.138 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 40.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:13.311Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04297233363624875. Price 942.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0622752094125407 → FY2025 32.33413263821225. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2018-06: EUR 471.75 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 546.40 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 604.00 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 703.00 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 571.10 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 457.05 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 475.05 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 647.70 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 660.00 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 698.00 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 725.60 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 720.80 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 678.60 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 687.00 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 658.80 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 604.40 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 629.40 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 696.20 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 731.00 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 831.00 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 797.20 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 770.60 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 901.20 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 1,183.00 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 1,295.50 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 1,417.00 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 1,413.00 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 1,572.50 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 1,447.50 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 1,602.00 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 1,905.00 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 1,719.50 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 1,916.00 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 1,903.50 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 2,041.50 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 1,890.40 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 2,060.50 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 2,289.50 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 2,734.50 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 2,415.00 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 2,610.50 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 2,447.50 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 2,311.50 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 1,789.00 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 1,864.40 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 1,809.00 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 1,623.00 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 1,447.20 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 1,388.00 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 1,745.00 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 1,545.00 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 1,301.80 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 1,452.60 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 1,463.80 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 1,288.40 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 1,377.60 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 1,345.20 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 1,459.20 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 1,452.00 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 1,526.80 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 1,585.80 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 1,689.80 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 772.50 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 705.70 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 633.90 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 1,071.00 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 1,166.60 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 1,171.20 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 1,460.00 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 1,568.00 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 1,130.20 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 1,184.80 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 1,113.20 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 1,130.60 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 1,329.00 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 1,402.60 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 1,406.40 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 1,378.40 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 1,437.00 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 1,570.00 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 1,741.20 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 1,406.00 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 1,417.80 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 1,689.60 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 1,558.40 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 1,510.60 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 1,434.40 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 1,365.00 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 1,488.60 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 1,340.60 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 1,375.00 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 1,253.40 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 994.80 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 850.60 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 958.50 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 939.30 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 820.40 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 876.90 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 1,047.40 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 876.60 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 932.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2018: low EUR 81.00 per share, central EUR 86.59 per share, high EUR 94.02 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 96.23 per share, central EUR 106.14 per share, high EUR 119.34 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 180.73 per share, central EUR 193.36 per share, high EUR 210.19 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 283.32 per share, central EUR 301.81 per share, high EUR 326.43 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 392.09 per share, central EUR 417.55 per share, high EUR 451.45 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 497.56 per share, central EUR 529.94 per share, high EUR 573.04 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 678.91 per share, central EUR 833.48 per share, high EUR 923.49 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 814.05 per share, central EUR 1,016.83 per share, high EUR 1,134.91 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:01.274Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.