Profits were positive in 7 years (at least 8 needed).
- 10y median
- EUR 602M
- Worst year
- EUR -2.6B
- Latest · 2025
- EUR 924M
# Aegon NV (AEG.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AEG Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:14.953Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: EUR. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $8.27 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $1.33 per share, central $1.50 per share, high $1.72 per share. Buy at or below the central value $1.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:14.953Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 3.6% at the stated quote. About 3.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - positive earnings in fewer than 8 of 10 years - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 7 - Required profitable years: 8 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 3.77× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: EUR 304M - FY2017: EUR 2.3B - FY2018: EUR 593M - FY2019: EUR 1.1B - FY2020: EUR -184M - FY2021: EUR 1.6B - FY2022: EUR -2.6B - FY2023: EUR -227M - FY2024: EUR 611M - FY2025: EUR 924M ### moat: fail - Common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - median return on common equity below threshold - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 3.7% - Required median return: 10.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: No - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -3.0% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 1.2% - FY2017: 9.6% - FY2018: 2.6% - FY2019: 4.7% - FY2020: -0.7% - FY2021: 6.1% - FY2022: -18.1% - FY2023: -3.0% - FY2024: 6.7% - FY2025: 12.3% ### economics: fail - Common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: -4.0% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: EUR 9.74 - Ending book value per share: EUR 4.98 Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -1.2% - FY2017: -1.4% - FY2018: 20.3% - FY2019: 9.3% - FY2020: -20.0% - FY2021: 7.8% - FY2022: -28.3% - FY2023: -36.1% - FY2024: 12.1% - FY2025: 17.2% ### management: fail - Common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - book per share gain below retained common earnings per share - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.6% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -10.3% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -5.6% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -10.3% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book value created per share: EUR -4.76 - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: EUR -2.18 ### accounting: pass - Financial accounting warning count: 0 - Known restatement years: 0 ## Holders - [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 8.6% a year forever · net income +51.2% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:14.757Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 8.6% a year forever ### Net income · FY2025 net income +51.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769218/000119312526124987/d29563d20f.htm; observed 2026-03-26. - FY2016: EUR 304M - FY2017: EUR 2.3B - FY2018: EUR 593M - FY2019: EUR 1.1B - FY2020: EUR -184M - FY2021: EUR 1.6B - FY2022: EUR -2.6B - FY2023: EUR -227M - FY2024: EUR 611M - FY2025: EUR 924M ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in insurance diversified; annual sales are EUR 26.9 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769218/000119312526124987/d29563d20f.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 26864000000. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AEG.US: Aegon Ltd. provides insurance services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers retirement plans, mutual funds, and unit-linked products; and annuities, life, and health insurance. The company provides its products under the Transamerica and World Financial Group brands. Aegon Ltd. was founded in 1844 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands. ### Why customers stay It earns 3.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.01229872967068533],[2017,0.09595337765739145],[2018,0.02630294965624307],[2019,0.046967773637443186],[2020,-0.007483933946148214],[2021,0.06112543606855756],[2022,-0.1810429880197322],[2023,-0.03007020797456617],[2024,0.06650702079024709],[2025,0.12271252177485059]]; median 0.036635361646843126. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 527.3 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,306000000],[2017,294000000],[2018,328000000],[2019,309000000],[2020,63000000],[2021,121000000],[2022,167000000],[2023,494000000],[2024,521000000],[2025,572477485]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769218/000119312526124987/d29563d20f.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 527332448 EUR. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AEG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 8.6% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Price 8.27; FX 1.12128; original perpetual distributable cash 0.10348988530665953; discount 0.1; growth 0.0859684233861365. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $4.34 per share - 2016-11: $5.10 per share - 2016-12: $5.53 per share - 2017-01: $5.48 per share - 2017-02: $5.34 per share - 2017-03: $5.13 per share - 2017-04: $5.15 per share - 2017-05: $4.95 per share - 2017-06: $5.11 per share - 2017-07: $5.57 per share - 2017-08: $5.70 per share - 2017-09: $5.79 per share - 2017-10: $5.87 per share - 2017-11: $6.19 per share - 2017-12: $6.30 per share - 2018-01: $6.79 per share - 2018-02: $6.92 per share - 2018-03: $6.77 per share - 2018-04: $7.26 per share - 2018-05: $6.21 per share - 2018-06: $5.92 per share - 2018-07: $6.55 per share - 2018-08: $5.95 per share - 2018-09: $6.43 per share - 2018-10: $6.08 per share - 2018-11: $5.52 per share - 2018-12: $4.65 per share - 2019-01: $5.17 per share - 2019-02: $5.36 per share - 2019-03: $4.79 per share - 2019-04: $5.20 per share - 2019-05: $4.56 per share - 2019-06: $4.95 per share - 2019-07: $4.92 per share - 2019-08: $3.78 per share - 2019-09: $4.13 per share - 2019-10: $4.32 per share - 2019-11: $4.47 per share - 2019-12: $4.53 per share - 2020-01: $4.01 per share - 2020-02: $3.38 per share - 2020-03: $2.49 per share - 2020-04: $2.60 per share - 2020-05: $2.67 per share - 2020-06: $2.94 per share - 2020-07: $2.90 per share - 2020-08: $2.74 per share - 2020-09: $2.56 per share - 2020-10: $2.70 per share - 2020-11: $3.64 per share - 2020-12: $3.95 per share - 2021-01: $4.09 per share - 2021-02: $4.73 per share - 2021-03: $4.73 per share - 2021-04: $4.59 per share - 2021-05: $4.72 per share - 2021-06: $4.13 per share - 2021-07: $4.21 per share - 2021-08: $4.90 per share - 2021-09: $5.09 per share - 2021-10: $5.05 per share - 2021-11: $4.40 per share - 2021-12: $4.94 per share - 2022-01: $5.67 per share - 2022-02: $4.97 per share - 2022-03: $5.29 per share - 2022-04: $5.14 per share - 2022-05: $5.37 per share - 2022-06: $4.38 per share - 2022-07: $4.40 per share - 2022-08: $4.49 per share - 2022-09: $3.96 per share - 2022-10: $4.61 per share - 2022-11: $4.87 per share - 2022-12: $5.04 per share - 2023-01: $5.48 per share - 2023-02: $5.17 per share - 2023-03: $4.30 per share - 2023-04: $4.53 per share - 2023-05: $4.33 per share - 2023-06: $5.07 per share - 2023-07: $5.39 per share - 2023-08: $5.08 per share - 2023-09: $4.80 per share - 2023-10: $4.83 per share - 2023-11: $5.49 per share - 2023-12: $5.76 per share - 2024-01: $5.78 per share - 2024-02: $5.92 per share - 2024-03: $6.05 per share - 2024-04: $6.17 per share - 2024-05: $6.46 per share - 2024-06: $6.13 per share - 2024-07: $6.45 per share - 2024-08: $6.11 per share - 2024-09: $6.39 per share - 2024-10: $6.28 per share - 2024-11: $6.49 per share - 2024-12: $5.89 per share - 2025-01: $6.50 per share - 2025-02: $6.28 per share - 2025-03: $6.59 per share - 2025-04: $6.43 per share - 2025-05: $7.19 per share - 2025-06: $7.24 per share - 2025-07: $7.10 per share - 2025-08: $7.79 per share - 2025-09: $7.99 per share - 2025-10: $7.57 per share - 2025-11: $8.02 per share - 2025-12: $7.71 per share - 2026-01: $7.79 per share - 2026-02: $7.50 per share - 2026-03: $7.26 per share - 2026-04: $8.23 per share - 2026-05: $8.41 per share - 2026-06: $8.44 per share - 2026-07: $9.44 per share - 2026-08: $9.14 per share - 2026-09: $8.63 per share - 2026-10: $8.27 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $1.12 per share, central $1.28 per share, high $1.49 per share - FY2017: low $0.83 per share, central $0.95 per share, high $1.11 per share - FY2018: low $3.92 per share, central $4.31 per share, high $4.79 per share - FY2019: low $1.52 per share, central $1.74 per share, high $2.05 per share - FY2020: low $3.45 per share, central $3.79 per share, high $4.22 per share - FY2021: low $1.41 per share, central $1.61 per share, high $1.89 per share - FY2022: low $2.38 per share, central $2.62 per share, high $2.91 per share - FY2023: low $1.22 per share, central $1.35 per share, high $1.50 per share - FY2024: low $1.30 per share, central $1.43 per share, high $1.59 per share - FY2025: low $1.29 per share, central $1.46 per share, high $1.67 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/769218/000119312526124987/d29563d20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
AEG · US
Not a wonderful business
3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Profits were positive in 7 years (at least 8 needed).
Earned a median 3.7% on equity (minimum 10%).
Book value plus dividends grew -4% a year (minimum 7%).
Book value gained -4.76 per share against 0 kept (must cover the amount kept).
0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
Profit record · pass 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.26 EUR.
| Value range | $1.33 – $1.72 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $1.50 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 8.27 / 1.50 = -452.9% |
| Return / year | About 3.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book USD 5.34/share; ROE 4.4%; first payout USD 0.12/share, growing 2.2% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |