# AerCap Holdings NV (AER.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AER

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:16.320Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $145.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $159.82 per share, central $209.18 per share, high $243.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $209.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:16.320Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.2% at the stated quote. About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.46×

- FY2017: 0.48×

- FY2018: 0.49×

- FY2019: 0.55×

- FY2020: 0.51×

- FY2021: 0.48×

- FY2022: 0.48×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 0.51×

- FY2025: 0.52×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 79.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -0.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.4%

- FY2017: 5.7%

- FY2018: 5.6%

- FY2019: 6.1%

- FY2020: 5.1%

- FY2021: 2.9%

- FY2022: 4.4%

- FY2023: 5.8%

- FY2024: 5.8%

- FY2025: 6.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $9.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: 0.55×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.6% vs 5.8%

- Per-share earnings: 5.96 to 15.23 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.2%

- Market cap gain: $17B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $12B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.4%

- Per-share value change: $9.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.96

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $15.23

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.84

- Average buyback yield: 9.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $4.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $13B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.95

- FY2017: $6.98

- FY2018: $7.27

- FY2019: $8.86

- FY2020: -$2.31

- FY2021: $4.91

- FY2022: -$2.99

- FY2023: $15.23

- FY2024: $11.00

- FY2025: $22.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.53×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.6%

- FY2017: -4.9%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: -5.8%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: -8.5%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -2.3%

## Holders

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Pat Dorsey](https://gigainvestors.com/DA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.1% a year for ten years · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.044Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: AerCap shares fall on revenue miss as asset sales, maintenance rents decline ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4474638-aercap-shares-fall-on-revenue-miss-as-asset-sales-maintenance-rents-decline?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-03: AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Delivers Record Q3 Earnings and Boosts 2025 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aercap-holdings-n-v-aer-103208388.html))

- 2026-07-21: AerCap Orders 15 787 Dreamliner Jets to Meet High Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aercap-orders-15-787-dreamliner-120000610.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: $5.0B 

- FY2017: $5.0B 

- FY2018: $4.8B 

- FY2019: $4.9B 

- FY2020: $4.5B 

- FY2021: $4.6B 

- FY2022: $7.0B 

- FY2023: $7.6B 

- FY2024: $8.0B 

- FY2025: $8.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 52.9% 

- FY2017: 55.0% 

- FY2018: 55.7% 

- FY2019: 60.2% 

- FY2020: 56.2% 

- FY2021: 55.2% 

- FY2022: 54.2% 

- FY2023: 57.3% 

- FY2024: 57.6% 

- FY2025: 59.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in rental & leasing services; annual sales are USD 8.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 8188951999; grossProfit 4894212999; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AER.US: AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 57.3% to 59.8% during 2023–25; it earns 5.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 57.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 57.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05391502986126463],[2017,0.0569812433221626],[2018,0.05593436958074267],[2019,0.061273322495162756],[2020,0.05067782861579441],[2021,0.029162210994984058],[2022,0.04390502681588961],[2023,0.05789018697313285],[2024,0.05816681696393376],[2025,0.06312059357357032]]; median 0.05645780645145264. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 84.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 4.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1183725000; owner earnings 163082000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 51856000; upkeep 1737925000; owner earnings 1000507000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.051829722330778295.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 3751808000; upkeep 2480578000; owner earnings 3136091000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1963326319293668.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 3840190266.40849; upkeep 2776167733.59151; owner earnings 1902501266.4084902. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.0184955112581537.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 1746275670.9824686; upkeep 4328022329.017531; owner earnings 2069761670.9824686. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8437085754677984.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Incremental return on capital 0.047960560564010254, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,10501000],[2017,266000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,139991000],[2025,192437000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 2538200000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AER.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.3740000000000006 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

AerCap Cargo’s largest customers are Kalitta Air and Amazon.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); AerCap Cargo was also involved in the development of the Boeing 767-300BDSF, the launch of Boeing’s 737-800BCF freighter conversion program and placed a direct order with Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH on its A321P2F freighter conversion program. AerCap Cargo’s largest customers are Kalitta Air and Amazon. Engine leasing AerCap is the world’s largest lessor of spare engines, with over 1,200 owned, managed and on order engines, including engines owned and managed by Shannon Engine Support Ltd (“SES”), our joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines (“Safran”).

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.013889979490086801. Price 145.92; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.960915956106686 → FY2025 12.40482052282731. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $41.11 per share

- 2016-11: $42.85 per share

- 2016-12: $41.61 per share

- 2017-01: $44.27 per share

- 2017-02: $45.30 per share

- 2017-03: $45.97 per share

- 2017-04: $46.01 per share

- 2017-05: $44.02 per share

- 2017-06: $46.43 per share

- 2017-07: $49.10 per share

- 2017-08: $50.30 per share

- 2017-09: $51.11 per share

- 2017-10: $52.64 per share

- 2017-11: $51.97 per share

- 2017-12: $52.61 per share

- 2018-01: $54.10 per share

- 2018-02: $49.61 per share

- 2018-03: $50.72 per share

- 2018-04: $52.13 per share

- 2018-05: $55.31 per share

- 2018-06: $54.15 per share

- 2018-07: $56.13 per share

- 2018-08: $56.97 per share

- 2018-09: $57.52 per share

- 2018-10: $50.08 per share

- 2018-11: $52.87 per share

- 2018-12: $39.60 per share

- 2019-01: $47.26 per share

- 2019-02: $45.14 per share

- 2019-03: $46.54 per share

- 2019-04: $49.64 per share

- 2019-05: $44.82 per share

- 2019-06: $52.01 per share

- 2019-07: $54.53 per share

- 2019-08: $53.62 per share

- 2019-09: $54.75 per share

- 2019-10: $57.88 per share

- 2019-11: $61.81 per share

- 2019-12: $61.47 per share

- 2020-01: $56.61 per share

- 2020-02: $52.08 per share

- 2020-03: $22.79 per share

- 2020-04: $28.12 per share

- 2020-05: $32.24 per share

- 2020-06: $30.80 per share

- 2020-07: $26.93 per share

- 2020-08: $29.57 per share

- 2020-09: $25.19 per share

- 2020-10: $24.83 per share

- 2020-11: $36.76 per share

- 2020-12: $45.58 per share

- 2021-01: $38.24 per share

- 2021-02: $48.18 per share

- 2021-03: $58.74 per share

- 2021-04: $58.25 per share

- 2021-05: $59.00 per share

- 2021-06: $51.21 per share

- 2021-07: $53.00 per share

- 2021-08: $53.93 per share

- 2021-09: $57.81 per share

- 2021-10: $59.04 per share

- 2021-11: $56.04 per share

- 2021-12: $65.42 per share

- 2022-01: $63.00 per share

- 2022-02: $54.43 per share

- 2022-03: $50.28 per share

- 2022-04: $46.71 per share

- 2022-05: $49.44 per share

- 2022-06: $40.94 per share

- 2022-07: $44.86 per share

- 2022-08: $44.05 per share

- 2022-09: $42.33 per share

- 2022-10: $53.41 per share

- 2022-11: $61.40 per share

- 2022-12: $58.32 per share

- 2023-01: $63.21 per share

- 2023-02: $62.44 per share

- 2023-03: $56.23 per share

- 2023-04: $56.36 per share

- 2023-05: $57.08 per share

- 2023-06: $63.52 per share

- 2023-07: $63.81 per share

- 2023-08: $61.52 per share

- 2023-09: $62.67 per share

- 2023-10: $62.12 per share

- 2023-11: $68.22 per share

- 2023-12: $74.32 per share

- 2024-01: $76.56 per share

- 2024-02: $77.18 per share

- 2024-03: $86.91 per share

- 2024-04: $84.49 per share

- 2024-05: $92.71 per share

- 2024-06: $93.20 per share

- 2024-07: $93.95 per share

- 2024-08: $97.42 per share

- 2024-09: $94.72 per share

- 2024-10: $93.55 per share

- 2024-11: $99.36 per share

- 2024-12: $95.70 per share

- 2025-01: $95.60 per share

- 2025-02: $103.10 per share

- 2025-03: $102.17 per share

- 2025-04: $106.00 per share

- 2025-05: $115.73 per share

- 2025-06: $117.00 per share

- 2025-07: $107.25 per share

- 2025-08: $123.50 per share

- 2025-09: $121.00 per share

- 2025-10: $130.24 per share

- 2025-11: $134.00 per share

- 2025-12: $143.76 per share

- 2026-01: $143.66 per share

- 2026-02: $149.44 per share

- 2026-03: $137.18 per share

- 2026-04: $142.21 per share

- 2026-05: $139.39 per share

- 2026-06: $145.78 per share

- 2026-07: $150.90 per share

- 2026-08: $145.94 per share

- 2026-09: $143.52 per share

- 2026-10: $145.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $26.29 per share, central $34.07 per share, high $38.60 per share

- FY2024: low $129.78 per share, central $183.03 per share, high $214.04 per share

- FY2025: low $155.91 per share, central $204.60 per share, high $238.18 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378789/000162828026007513/aer-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.