# The AES (AES.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AES

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:16.825Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $14.97 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.21×

- FY2018: 0.22×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 23.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -4.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.6%

- FY2017: 7.3%

- FY2018: 7.9%

- FY2019: 6.8%

- FY2020: 8.2%

- FY2021: 10.5%

- FY2022: 7.9%

- FY2023: 5.4%

- FY2024: 6.2%

- FY2025: 6.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -8.16×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$16B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -2.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.90×

- FY2023: -25.75×

- FY2024: -2.63×

- FY2025: -3.71×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.9% vs 6.2%

- Per-share earnings: -0.02 to 1.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Market cap gain: $2.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.02

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.43

- Average buyback yield: 3.5%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.02

- FY2017: -$0.83

- FY2018: $1.51

- FY2019: $0.45

- FY2020: $0.06

- FY2021: -$0.62

- FY2022: -$0.82

- FY2023: $0.34

- FY2024: $2.36

- FY2025: $1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.54×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.0%

- FY2017: -9.2%

- FY2018: -4.1%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -7.8%

- FY2021: -7.0%

- FY2022: -8.5%

- FY2023: -6.2%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -6.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 48% since Nov 2022 · "The AES Corporation (AES) Loses 17.8% on Discounted Merger With GIP, EQT" (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales -0.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.082Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-06-19: The AES Corporation (AES) Reinforces 2025 Outlook with Amazon Solar Mega-Project Milestone ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aes-corporation-aes-reinforces-2025-062444464.html))

- 2026-02-24: AES Google Texas Deal Links Data Center Power To AES Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aes-google-texas-deal-links-140956600.html))

- 2026-03-03: The AES Corporation (AES) Loses 17.8% on Discounted Merger With GIP, EQT ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aes-corporation-aes-loses-17-062658897.html))

- 2026-05-18: AES Rate Proposal And Mega Renewables Project Reshape Earnings Visibility ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/aes-rate-proposal-mega-renewables-031507694.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: $10B 

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $9.7B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $13B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: 22.9% 

- FY2017: 23.3% 

- FY2018: 24.0% 

- FY2019: 23.2% 

- FY2020: 27.9% 

- FY2021: 24.3% 

- FY2022: 20.2% 

- FY2023: 19.8% 

- FY2024: 18.9% 

- FY2025: 18.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities diversified; annual sales are USD 12.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 12233000000; grossProfit 2211000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AES.US: The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a power generation and utility company. It operates through four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market, as well as investments in technologies to support leading-edge greener energy solutions. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as solar, hydro, wind, coal, and gas, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers. The company operates in the United States, Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Bulgaria, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Vietnam, Jordan, Puerto Rico, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.1% to 19.8% during 2023–25; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09616930589156616],[2017,0.07267726772677267],[2018,0.0785066136034609],[2019,0.06807697886949374],[2020,0.08206939590614079],[2021,0.10509950378688952],[2022,0.07880139758830798],[2023,0.05401331029157628],[2024,0.06154040742764599],[2025,0.061947737492531685]]; median 0.07559194066511679. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 438781932.25054336; upkeep 1682218067.7494566; owner earnings 324781932.25054336. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3510047471238582.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,290000000],[2017,317000000],[2018,344000000],[2019,362000000],[2020,381000000],[2021,401000000],[2022,422000000],[2023,444000000],[2024,483000000],[2025,501000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AES.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.5760000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02);  financial position.

53 | 2025 Annual Report

Our renewable energy projects and other initiatives face considerable uncertainties.

Wind, solar, and energy storage projects are subject to substantial risks. In particular, in the U.S., AES’ renewable energy generation growth strategy has depended in part on federal, state, and local government policies and incentives that support the development, financing, ownership, and operation of renewable energy generation projects, including investment tax credits, production tax credits, accelerated depreciation, renewable portfolio standards, feed-in-tariffs, and similar programs, REC mechanisms and compliance programs, and tax exemptions. More recently, the favorable regulatory regimes associated with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 have been curtailed by the passage of H.R. 1 (the "2025 Act"). See Item 7.—Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Key Trends and Uncertainties—Macroeconomic and Political—U.S. Tax Law Reform and U.S. Renewable Energy Tax Credits. If these policies and incentives are further changed or eliminated, if pending tax guidance related to these policies is adverse, or AES is otherwise unable to use these policies or incentives, there could be a material adverse impact on AES’ U.S. renewable growth opportunities, including fewer future PPAs, decreased revenues, reduced economic returns on certain project company investments, increased financing costs, and/or difficulty obtaining financing. Further, the adoption of the 2025 Act requires the issuance of tax guidance, some of which has not yet been issued, that may further impact our projects.

In addition, new tariffs, duties, or other assessments have been imposed on the imports of solar cells, modules, batteries, or other equipment utilized in our renewable energy projects. Any such developments could impede the realization of our U.S. renewables strategy by resulting in, among other items, lack of a satisfactory market for the development and/or financing of our U.S. renewable energy projects, abandoning the development of certain U.S. renewable energy projects, a loss of our investments in the projects, and/or reduced project returns.

Furthermore, production levels for our wind and solar projects may be dependent upon adequate wind or sunlight resulting in volatility in production levels and profitability. For our wind projects, wind resource estimates are based on historical experience when available and on wind resource studies conducted by an independent engineer. These wind resource estimates are not expected to reflect actual wind energy production in any given year, but long-term averages of a resource.

As a result, these types of projects face considerable risk, including that favorable regulatory regimes are further adversely modified. At the development or acquisition

### What the price says

The price is 0.9 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Closing price 14.97 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 17.133053221288517; price multiple 0.8737496934521376. FY2025 cash earnings/share -4.934173669467787. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.77 per share

- 2016-11: $11.45 per share

- 2016-12: $11.62 per share

- 2017-01: $11.44 per share

- 2017-02: $11.52 per share

- 2017-03: $11.18 per share

- 2017-04: $11.31 per share

- 2017-05: $11.68 per share

- 2017-06: $11.11 per share

- 2017-07: $11.18 per share

- 2017-08: $11.04 per share

- 2017-09: $11.02 per share

- 2017-10: $10.63 per share

- 2017-11: $10.58 per share

- 2017-12: $10.83 per share

- 2018-01: $11.56 per share

- 2018-02: $10.87 per share

- 2018-03: $11.37 per share

- 2018-04: $12.24 per share

- 2018-05: $12.75 per share

- 2018-06: $13.41 per share

- 2018-07: $13.36 per share

- 2018-08: $13.46 per share

- 2018-09: $14.00 per share

- 2018-10: $14.58 per share

- 2018-11: $15.49 per share

- 2018-12: $14.46 per share

- 2019-01: $16.39 per share

- 2019-02: $17.23 per share

- 2019-03: $18.08 per share

- 2019-04: $17.12 per share

- 2019-05: $15.80 per share

- 2019-06: $16.76 per share

- 2019-07: $16.79 per share

- 2019-08: $15.33 per share

- 2019-09: $16.34 per share

- 2019-10: $17.05 per share

- 2019-11: $18.91 per share

- 2019-12: $19.90 per share

- 2020-01: $19.86 per share

- 2020-02: $16.73 per share

- 2020-03: $13.60 per share

- 2020-04: $13.25 per share

- 2020-05: $12.49 per share

- 2020-06: $14.49 per share

- 2020-07: $15.23 per share

- 2020-08: $17.75 per share

- 2020-09: $18.11 per share

- 2020-10: $19.50 per share

- 2020-11: $20.44 per share

- 2020-12: $23.50 per share

- 2021-01: $24.39 per share

- 2021-02: $26.56 per share

- 2021-03: $26.81 per share

- 2021-04: $27.82 per share

- 2021-05: $25.41 per share

- 2021-06: $26.07 per share

- 2021-07: $23.70 per share

- 2021-08: $23.87 per share

- 2021-09: $22.83 per share

- 2021-10: $25.13 per share

- 2021-11: $23.38 per share

- 2021-12: $24.30 per share

- 2022-01: $22.18 per share

- 2022-02: $21.23 per share

- 2022-03: $25.73 per share

- 2022-04: $20.42 per share

- 2022-05: $22.04 per share

- 2022-06: $21.01 per share

- 2022-07: $22.22 per share

- 2022-08: $25.45 per share

- 2022-09: $22.60 per share

- 2022-10: $26.16 per share

- 2022-11: $28.92 per share

- 2022-12: $28.76 per share

- 2023-01: $27.41 per share

- 2023-02: $24.68 per share

- 2023-03: $24.08 per share

- 2023-04: $23.66 per share

- 2023-05: $19.74 per share

- 2023-06: $20.73 per share

- 2023-07: $21.63 per share

- 2023-08: $17.93 per share

- 2023-09: $15.20 per share

- 2023-10: $14.90 per share

- 2023-11: $17.21 per share

- 2023-12: $19.25 per share

- 2024-01: $16.68 per share

- 2024-02: $15.20 per share

- 2024-03: $17.93 per share

- 2024-04: $17.90 per share

- 2024-05: $21.59 per share

- 2024-06: $17.57 per share

- 2024-07: $17.79 per share

- 2024-08: $17.13 per share

- 2024-09: $20.06 per share

- 2024-10: $16.49 per share

- 2024-11: $13.04 per share

- 2024-12: $12.87 per share

- 2025-01: $11.00 per share

- 2025-02: $11.59 per share

- 2025-03: $12.42 per share

- 2025-04: $10.00 per share

- 2025-05: $10.09 per share

- 2025-06: $10.52 per share

- 2025-07: $13.15 per share

- 2025-08: $13.54 per share

- 2025-09: $13.16 per share

- 2025-10: $13.87 per share

- 2025-11: $14.06 per share

- 2025-12: $14.34 per share

- 2026-01: $14.65 per share

- 2026-02: $17.28 per share

- 2026-03: $14.09 per share

- 2026-04: $14.45 per share

- 2026-05: $14.67 per share

- 2026-06: $14.66 per share

- 2026-07: $14.68 per share

- 2026-08: $14.74 per share

- 2026-09: $14.90 per share

- 2026-10: $14.97 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874761/000087476126000063/aes-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.