# Aflac (AFL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AFL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:17.278Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $118.05 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $81.73 per share, central $89.90 per share, high $99.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value $89.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:17.278Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.37×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.7B

- FY2017: $4.6B

- FY2018: $2.9B

- FY2019: $3.3B

- FY2020: $4.8B

- FY2021: $4.3B

- FY2022: $4.2B

- FY2023: $4.7B

- FY2024: $5.4B

- FY2025: $3.6B

### moat: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 13.0%

- Required median return: 10.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: No

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 11.4%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.0%

- FY2017: 18.7%

- FY2018: 12.4%

- FY2019: 11.4%

- FY2020: 3.0%

- FY2021: 13.0%

- FY2022: 20.9%

- FY2023: 21.2%

- FY2024: 20.9%

- FY2025: 12.4%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 14.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $20.44

- Ending book value per share: $55.13

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.9%

- FY2017: 28.0%

- FY2018: 1.6%

- FY2019: 31.5%

- FY2020: 468.5%

- FY2021: -77.0%

- FY2022: -32.6%

- FY2023: 21.4%

- FY2024: 31.0%

- FY2025: 24.2%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.7%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -4.7%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -5.7%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 2.33×

- Book value created per share: $34.69

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $14.92

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 96

- FY2017: 92

- FY2018: 89

- FY2019: 86

- FY2020: 83

- FY2021: 78

- FY2022: 74

- FY2023: 69

- FY2024: 65

- FY2025: 62

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 2.4% a year forever · "AFL Q1 Deep Dive: Missed Expectations as Japan Sales Offset by Premium Pressure" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · net income -33%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.208Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 2.4% a year forever

- 2025-05-01: Aflac Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Japan Premiums ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aflac-q1-earnings-miss-estimates-135600971.html))

- 2025-08-13: AFL Q2 Deep Dive: Japan Cancer Product Launch Drives Growth, U.S. Margin Discipline Maintained ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/afl-q2-deep-dive-japan-035755602.html))

- 2025-11-05: Aflac Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Group Life Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aflac-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-195500545.html))

- 2026-02-05: Aflac Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aflac-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-152600920.html))

- 2026-07-29: Aflac (AFL) Could Be 10% Above Fair Value On Shrinking Revenue Views ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aflac-afl-could-10-above-160953231.html))

- 2026-08-06: Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aflac-nyse-afl-reports-sales-201631235.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income -33%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4977/000162828026011402/afl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $2.7B 

- FY2017: $4.6B 

- FY2018: $2.9B 

- FY2019: $3.3B 

- FY2020: $4.8B 

- FY2021: $4.3B 

- FY2022: $4.2B 

- FY2023: $4.7B 

- FY2024: $5.4B 

- FY2025: $3.6B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance life; annual sales are USD 17.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4977/000162828026011402/afl-20251231.htm#000162828026011402 (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 17164000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AFL.US: Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States. The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans. It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

It earns 13% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.12982130651303583],[2017,0.1871696885925685],[2018,0.12445656806751343],[2019,0.11409233744259124],[2020,0.030396915775477616],[2021,0.13006345292154092],[2022,0.20858987090367428],[2023,0.2119172162838299],[2024,0.20856004291516592],[2025,0.12363513055272973]]; median 0.1299423797172884. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,658000000],[2017,661000000],[2018,793000000],[2019,771000000],[2020,769000000],[2021,855000000],[2022,979000000],[2023,966000000],[2024,1087000000],[2025,1198000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4977/000162828026011402/afl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 3530000000 USD.

### What could break it

"The Company is exposed to significant interest rate risk" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4977/000162828026011402/afl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); The Company is exposed to significant interest rate risk

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 2.4% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Price 118.05; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 8.990332819460594; discount 0.1; growth 0.023843008729685783. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $34.44 per share

- 2016-11: $35.69 per share

- 2016-12: $34.80 per share

- 2017-01: $35.00 per share

- 2017-02: $36.18 per share

- 2017-03: $36.21 per share

- 2017-04: $37.44 per share

- 2017-05: $37.69 per share

- 2017-06: $38.84 per share

- 2017-07: $39.88 per share

- 2017-08: $41.28 per share

- 2017-09: $40.70 per share

- 2017-10: $41.95 per share

- 2017-11: $43.82 per share

- 2017-12: $43.89 per share

- 2018-01: $44.10 per share

- 2018-02: $44.44 per share

- 2018-03: $43.76 per share

- 2018-04: $45.57 per share

- 2018-05: $45.06 per share

- 2018-06: $43.02 per share

- 2018-07: $46.54 per share

- 2018-08: $46.24 per share

- 2018-09: $47.07 per share

- 2018-10: $43.07 per share

- 2018-11: $45.74 per share

- 2018-12: $45.56 per share

- 2019-01: $47.70 per share

- 2019-02: $49.14 per share

- 2019-03: $50.00 per share

- 2019-04: $50.38 per share

- 2019-05: $51.30 per share

- 2019-06: $54.81 per share

- 2019-07: $52.64 per share

- 2019-08: $50.18 per share

- 2019-09: $52.32 per share

- 2019-10: $53.16 per share

- 2019-11: $54.84 per share

- 2019-12: $52.90 per share

- 2020-01: $51.57 per share

- 2020-02: $42.85 per share

- 2020-03: $34.24 per share

- 2020-04: $37.24 per share

- 2020-05: $36.47 per share

- 2020-06: $36.03 per share

- 2020-07: $35.57 per share

- 2020-08: $36.32 per share

- 2020-09: $36.35 per share

- 2020-10: $33.95 per share

- 2020-11: $43.93 per share

- 2020-12: $44.47 per share

- 2021-01: $45.18 per share

- 2021-02: $47.89 per share

- 2021-03: $51.18 per share

- 2021-04: $53.73 per share

- 2021-05: $56.68 per share

- 2021-06: $53.66 per share

- 2021-07: $55.00 per share

- 2021-08: $56.68 per share

- 2021-09: $52.13 per share

- 2021-10: $53.67 per share

- 2021-11: $54.14 per share

- 2021-12: $58.39 per share

- 2022-01: $62.82 per share

- 2022-02: $61.09 per share

- 2022-03: $64.39 per share

- 2022-04: $57.28 per share

- 2022-05: $60.57 per share

- 2022-06: $55.33 per share

- 2022-07: $57.30 per share

- 2022-08: $59.42 per share

- 2022-09: $56.20 per share

- 2022-10: $65.11 per share

- 2022-11: $71.93 per share

- 2022-12: $71.94 per share

- 2023-01: $73.50 per share

- 2023-02: $68.15 per share

- 2023-03: $64.52 per share

- 2023-04: $69.85 per share

- 2023-05: $64.21 per share

- 2023-06: $69.80 per share

- 2023-07: $72.34 per share

- 2023-08: $74.57 per share

- 2023-09: $76.75 per share

- 2023-10: $78.11 per share

- 2023-11: $82.71 per share

- 2023-12: $82.50 per share

- 2024-01: $84.34 per share

- 2024-02: $80.74 per share

- 2024-03: $85.86 per share

- 2024-04: $83.65 per share

- 2024-05: $89.87 per share

- 2024-06: $89.31 per share

- 2024-07: $95.38 per share

- 2024-08: $110.36 per share

- 2024-09: $111.80 per share

- 2024-10: $104.79 per share

- 2024-11: $114.00 per share

- 2024-12: $103.44 per share

- 2025-01: $107.38 per share

- 2025-02: $109.47 per share

- 2025-03: $111.19 per share

- 2025-04: $108.68 per share

- 2025-05: $103.54 per share

- 2025-06: $105.46 per share

- 2025-07: $99.36 per share

- 2025-08: $106.86 per share

- 2025-09: $111.70 per share

- 2025-10: $107.19 per share

- 2025-11: $110.31 per share

- 2025-12: $110.27 per share

- 2026-01: $110.95 per share

- 2026-02: $112.93 per share

- 2026-03: $109.71 per share

- 2026-04: $113.67 per share

- 2026-05: $112.42 per share

- 2026-06: $117.25 per share

- 2026-07: $127.48 per share

- 2026-08: $115.85 per share

- 2026-09: $111.78 per share

- 2026-10: $116.44 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $28.63 per share, central $31.49 per share, high $34.99 per share

- FY2017: low $42.99 per share, central $47.29 per share, high $52.55 per share

- FY2018: low $56.13 per share, central $70.16 per share, high $93.54 per share

- FY2019: low $56.91 per share, central $62.60 per share, high $69.56 per share

- FY2020: low $654.47 per share, central $818.09 per share, high $1,090.78 per share

- FY2021: low $78.79 per share, central $86.67 per share, high $96.30 per share

- FY2022: low $40.21 per share, central $44.23 per share, high $49.15 per share

- FY2023: low $47.78 per share, central $52.56 per share, high $58.40 per share

- FY2024: low $68.69 per share, central $75.56 per share, high $83.96 per share

- FY2025: low $76.61 per share, central $84.27 per share, high $93.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4977/000162828026011402/afl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.