# Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AFRM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:17.389Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $75.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 0.93×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.38×

- FY2020: -0.21×

- FY2021: -0.44×

- FY2022: -0.64×

- FY2023: -0.76×

- FY2024: -0.27×

- FY2025: -0.03×

- FY2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -14.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -30.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 64.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -15.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -9595.9%

- FY2020: -30.2%

- FY2021: -11.8%

- FY2022: -20.3%

- FY2023: -17.6%

- FY2024: -7.3%

- FY2025: -0.9%

- FY2026: 7.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$107M

- Net income, five-year total: -$229M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 127.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 33.7 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -$707M

- FY2023: -$971M

- FY2024: -$508M

- FY2025: $85M

- FY2026: $2.0B

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -30.2% vs -0.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.57 to 0.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 17.0%

- Per-share value change: $0.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.57

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -30.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -0.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.57

- FY2020: -$0.46

- FY2021: -$2.77

- FY2022: -$2.51

- FY2023: -$3.34

- FY2024: -$1.67

- FY2025: $0.15

- FY2026: $5.53

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 24.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.64×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -2.4%

- FY2020: -2.9%

- FY2021: -5.1%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -12.2%

- FY2024: -10.2%

- FY2025: -6.6%

- FY2026: 4.4%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 53% since Oct 2021 · "Affirm Stock Drops on Soft Current-Quarter Revenue Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +32.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.307Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-05-29: Affirm expands partnership with Williams-Sonoma into Canada, shares up ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4453434-affirm-expands-partnership-with-williams-sonoma-into-canada-shares-up?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-06-18: Affirm Raises Fiscal 2025 Guidance: A Signal for Sustainable Growth? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-raises-fiscal-2025-guidance-155500119.html))

- 2025-08-29: Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Reports Turnaround From Net Loss To US$52M Profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-holdings-afrm-reports-turnaround-174120411.html))

- 2025-12-17: Affirm (AFRM) Soars 11.8% on Amazon Contract Renewal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-afrm-soars-11-8-170137340.html))

- 2026-05-12: Affirm Maps Road to $100B GMV With Card, AI Commerce and Global Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/affirm-maps-road-100b-gmv-230701226.html))

- 2026-08-28: Affirm Q4 2026 earnings beat: revenue and GMV top estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/affirm-q4-2026-earnings-beat-173735811.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +32.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-27.

- FY2019: $264M 

- FY2020: $510M 

- FY2021: $870M 

- FY2022: $1.3B 

- FY2023: $1.6B 

- FY2024: $2.3B 

- FY2025: $3.2B 

- FY2026: $4.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 64%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-27.

- FY2019: 58.9% 

- FY2020: 66.2% 

- FY2021: 62.9% 

- FY2022: 57.3% 

- FY2023: 45.0% 

- FY2024: 63.6% 

- FY2025: 67.5% 

- FY2026: 64.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in credit services; annual sales are USD 4.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm#000162828026059279 (filed 2026-08-27); FY2026: revenue 4261082000; grossProfit 2728964000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AFRM.US: Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform offers pay-over-time solutions at checkout for both consumers and merchants. The company's commerce platform, agreements with originating banks, and capital markets partners enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time. It has active merchants covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies with an omni-channel presence. The company's merchants represent a range of industries, including electronics; equipment and auto; fashion and beauty; general merchandise; home and lifestyle services; sporting goods and outdoors; and travel and ticketing. Affirm Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 63.6% to 67.5% during 2024–26; it lost 14.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 63.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 67.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 64%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,-95.95854066985646],[2020,-0.30224784905017466],[2021,-0.11846248519692487],[2022,-0.2028938423497775],[2023,-0.17646799126031587],[2024,-0.07296148235106395],[2025,-0.009078066025744267],[2026,0.07150061613619184]]; median -0.14746523822862037. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 192189000; owner earnings 85073000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-27); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 238346000; owner earnings 1994780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); Dividend observations: [[2019,309558000],[2020,2223286000],[2021,4819717000],[2022,0],[2023,15768000],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AFRM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.316 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 6.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-27); Closing price 75.92 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2026 annual sales per share 12.214771265954004; price multiple 6.215425434253554. FY2026 cash earnings/share 5.718214628561415. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-01: $99.59 per share

- 2021-02: $93.06 per share

- 2021-03: $70.72 per share

- 2021-04: $70.50 per share

- 2021-05: $60.81 per share

- 2021-06: $67.35 per share

- 2021-07: $56.32 per share

- 2021-08: $96.34 per share

- 2021-09: $119.13 per share

- 2021-10: $162.50 per share

- 2021-11: $126.68 per share

- 2021-12: $100.56 per share

- 2022-01: $64.07 per share

- 2022-02: $41.84 per share

- 2022-03: $46.28 per share

- 2022-04: $28.70 per share

- 2022-05: $28.50 per share

- 2022-06: $18.06 per share

- 2022-07: $26.84 per share

- 2022-08: $23.43 per share

- 2022-09: $18.76 per share

- 2022-10: $20.07 per share

- 2022-11: $13.92 per share

- 2022-12: $9.67 per share

- 2023-01: $16.19 per share

- 2023-02: $13.62 per share

- 2023-03: $11.27 per share

- 2023-04: $9.86 per share

- 2023-05: $14.86 per share

- 2023-06: $15.33 per share

- 2023-07: $19.39 per share

- 2023-08: $20.81 per share

- 2023-09: $21.27 per share

- 2023-10: $17.61 per share

- 2023-11: $34.41 per share

- 2023-12: $49.14 per share

- 2024-01: $40.51 per share

- 2024-02: $37.52 per share

- 2024-03: $37.26 per share

- 2024-04: $31.88 per share

- 2024-05: $29.27 per share

- 2024-06: $30.21 per share

- 2024-07: $28.29 per share

- 2024-08: $44.01 per share

- 2024-09: $40.82 per share

- 2024-10: $43.85 per share

- 2024-11: $70.01 per share

- 2024-12: $60.90 per share

- 2025-01: $61.07 per share

- 2025-02: $64.15 per share

- 2025-03: $45.19 per share

- 2025-04: $49.76 per share

- 2025-05: $51.90 per share

- 2025-06: $69.14 per share

- 2025-07: $68.56 per share

- 2025-08: $88.46 per share

- 2025-09: $73.08 per share

- 2025-10: $71.88 per share

- 2025-11: $70.95 per share

- 2025-12: $74.43 per share

- 2026-01: $60.30 per share

- 2026-02: $46.98 per share

- 2026-03: $45.82 per share

- 2026-04: $64.28 per share

- 2026-05: $73.65 per share

- 2026-06: $81.55 per share

- 2026-07: $71.51 per share

- 2026-08: $74.45 per share

- 2026-09: $69.23 per share

- 2026-10: $75.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1820953/000162828026059279/afrm-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.