# Afya (AFYA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AFYA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:17.472Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: BRL.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $14.52 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.94 per share, central $17.00 per share, high $19.74 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:17.472Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.2% at the stated quote. About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.26×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 62.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 63.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 26.6%

- FY2019: 18.8%

- FY2020: 16.2%

- FY2021: 12.3%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 16.5%

- FY2024: 19.4%

- FY2025: 20.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: BRL 2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: BRL 2.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 142.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.29×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 26.6% vs 19.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.98 to 6.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Per-share value growth: 38.5%

- Per-share value change: BRL 5.97

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: BRL 0.98

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: BRL 6.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 26.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: BRL 0.52

- FY2018: BRL 0.98

- FY2019: BRL 1.67

- FY2020: BRL 3.14

- FY2021: BRL 2.38

- FY2022: BRL 4.15

- FY2023: BRL 4.26

- FY2024: BRL 6.96

- FY2025: BRL 8.10

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.63×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.3%

- FY2018: 0.7%

- FY2019: -5.0%

- FY2020: -1.7%

- FY2021: -6.3%

- FY2022: -6.5%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: -9.1%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Dec 2023 · "UBS Sees Higher Spending Weighing on Afya Limited (AFYA)’s Near-Term Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Jan 2026) · sales +9.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.348Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-14: Afya Non-GAAP EPS of R$2.27, revenue of R$919.4M; reaffirms FY outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4485143-afya-non-gaap-eps-of-r227-revenue-of-r9194m-reaffirms-fy-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-13: Afya Non-GAAP EPS of R$2.08, revenue of R$928.51M; reaffirms FY outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4521100-afya-non-gaap-eps-of-r208-revenue-of-r92851m-reaffirms-fy-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-31: UBS Sees Higher Spending Weighing on Afya Limited (AFYA)’s Near-Term Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-sees-higher-spending-weighing-125931909.html))

- 2026-03-13: Afya Non-GAAP EPS of R$2.25, revenue of R$912.99M; gives FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4564135-afya-non-gaap-eps-of-r225-revenue-of-r91299m-gives-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: BRL 216M 

- FY2018: BRL 334M 

- FY2019: BRL 751M 

- FY2020: BRL 1.2B 

- FY2021: BRL 1.7B 

- FY2022: BRL 2.3B 

- FY2023: BRL 2.9B 

- FY2024: BRL 3.3B 

- FY2025: BRL 3.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 64.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: 42.6% 

- FY2018: 49.7% 

- FY2019: 58.9% 

- FY2020: 63.8% 

- FY2021: 62.1% 

- FY2022: 63.1% 

- FY2023: 61.4% 

- FY2024: 63.2% 

- FY2025: 64.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in education & training services; annual sales are BRL 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: revenue 3624629082; grossProfit 2336543183; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AFYA.US: Afya Limited operates as a medical education group in Brazil. The company operates in three segments: Undergraduate, Continuing Education, and Medical Practice Solutions. The Undergraduate segment offers educational services through undergraduate courses related to medical school, health sciences, and other non-health undergraduate programs, including medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, biomedicine, business administration, accounting, law, civil and industrial engineering, and pedagogy. The Continuing Education segment provides medical education, including residency preparation programs, specialization test preparation, graduate courses in medicine, and digital and in-person professional development for physicians and medical students. The Medical Practice Solutions segment offers clinical decision support platforms, medical practice management software, healthcare financial services, and digital healthcare ecosystem solutions, such as electronic medical records, practice management tools, telemedicine, digital prescriptions, and doctor-patient relationship platforms. This segment also provides a subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. The company also offers educational health and medical imaging; and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. In addition, it offers printed and digital content, as well as an online medical education platform and physicians, healthcare professionals and students. Afya Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.4% to 64.5% during 2023–25; it earns 18.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 61.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 63.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.9196215477805958],[2018,0.2659413966740635],[2019,0.18830363664999022],[2020,0.16150916459966963],[2021,0.12295675447228957],[2022,0.17085174599236655],[2023,0.16493288523278032],[2024,0.19398009928943385],[2025,0.19965761540985189]]; median 0.18830363664999022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 63% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-31); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6206170744999189],[2022,0.6309441975872638],[2023,0.6141006351722045]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 9 years; bought back BRL 75.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 21066000; owner earnings 28350000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 12609000; upkeep 9078000; owner earnings 86353000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14601693050617812.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 48557000; upkeep 73152000; owner earnings 153916000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31547727331791364.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 28841000; upkeep 108744000; owner earnings 292075000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09874518531199178.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 122580000; upkeep 154220000; owner earnings 223326000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5488836946884823.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 90804000; upkeep 206220000; owner earnings 373569000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2430715610770701.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 245428000; owner earnings 430407000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 59274000; upkeep 333341000; owner earnings 631510000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09386074646482241.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 162752949; owner earnings 948271306. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,38000000],[2018,38000000],[2019,38750847],[2020,12984000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: cash repurchases 75489430 BRL.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 78.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); AFYA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 78.211 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.027954871740510423. Price 14.52; FX 0.19614; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-07: $28.92 per share

- 2019-08: $21.90 per share

- 2019-09: $25.64 per share

- 2019-10: $27.00 per share

- 2019-11: $27.54 per share

- 2019-12: $27.12 per share

- 2020-01: $29.86 per share

- 2020-02: $23.78 per share

- 2020-03: $19.06 per share

- 2020-04: $21.74 per share

- 2020-05: $19.65 per share

- 2020-06: $23.44 per share

- 2020-07: $26.15 per share

- 2020-08: $25.57 per share

- 2020-09: $27.24 per share

- 2020-10: $24.00 per share

- 2020-11: $26.52 per share

- 2020-12: $25.30 per share

- 2021-01: $22.20 per share

- 2021-02: $22.42 per share

- 2021-03: $18.59 per share

- 2021-04: $22.41 per share

- 2021-05: $23.41 per share

- 2021-06: $25.78 per share

- 2021-07: $23.00 per share

- 2021-08: $21.58 per share

- 2021-09: $19.74 per share

- 2021-10: $17.45 per share

- 2021-11: $14.15 per share

- 2021-12: $15.71 per share

- 2022-01: $14.48 per share

- 2022-02: $12.90 per share

- 2022-03: $14.41 per share

- 2022-04: $15.11 per share

- 2022-05: $12.14 per share

- 2022-06: $9.95 per share

- 2022-07: $10.50 per share

- 2022-08: $13.02 per share

- 2022-09: $13.56 per share

- 2022-10: $14.74 per share

- 2022-11: $15.02 per share

- 2022-12: $15.62 per share

- 2023-01: $15.28 per share

- 2023-02: $11.58 per share

- 2023-03: $11.16 per share

- 2023-04: $11.51 per share

- 2023-05: $11.73 per share

- 2023-06: $14.04 per share

- 2023-07: $15.73 per share

- 2023-08: $15.07 per share

- 2023-09: $15.80 per share

- 2023-10: $16.10 per share

- 2023-11: $20.46 per share

- 2023-12: $21.93 per share

- 2024-01: $19.62 per share

- 2024-02: $20.64 per share

- 2024-03: $18.58 per share

- 2024-04: $17.23 per share

- 2024-05: $16.65 per share

- 2024-06: $17.65 per share

- 2024-07: $17.95 per share

- 2024-08: $16.30 per share

- 2024-09: $17.07 per share

- 2024-10: $16.76 per share

- 2024-11: $16.23 per share

- 2024-12: $15.88 per share

- 2025-01: $16.15 per share

- 2025-02: $16.76 per share

- 2025-03: $17.93 per share

- 2025-04: $19.00 per share

- 2025-05: $18.23 per share

- 2025-06: $17.86 per share

- 2025-07: $13.70 per share

- 2025-08: $15.18 per share

- 2025-09: $15.60 per share

- 2025-10: $14.17 per share

- 2025-11: $15.14 per share

- 2025-12: $15.41 per share

- 2026-01: $15.04 per share

- 2026-02: $13.60 per share

- 2026-03: $14.87 per share

- 2026-04: $14.41 per share

- 2026-05: $14.01 per share

- 2026-06: $14.84 per share

- 2026-07: $14.27 per share

- 2026-08: $14.60 per share

- 2026-09: $12.04 per share

- 2026-10: $14.52 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2021: low $8.07 per share, central $9.18 per share, high $10.66 per share

- FY2022: low $11.38 per share, central $12.95 per share, high $15.04 per share

- FY2023: low $10.91 per share, central $12.42 per share, high $14.42 per share

- FY2024: low $12.52 per share, central $14.24 per share, high $16.54 per share

- FY2025: low $13.69 per share, central $15.58 per share, high $18.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:31:53.218Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771007/000129281426002013/afyaform20f_2025.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.