# Agco (AGCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:17.799Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $106.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $134.39 per share, central $152.20 per share, high $175.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value $152.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:17.799Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.3% at the stated quote. About 13.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.8%

- FY2018: 14.3%

- FY2019: 13.2%

- FY2020: 19.0%

- FY2021: 31.5%

- FY2022: 29.3%

- FY2023: 33.1%

- FY2024: 18.9%

- FY2025: 16.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 29.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 19.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.14×

- FY2025: 1.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.15×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.8% vs 18.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.32 to 9.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: $3.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 19.6%

- Per-share value change: $7.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.16

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.96

- FY2017: $2.32

- FY2018: $3.58

- FY2019: $1.63

- FY2020: $5.65

- FY2021: $11.85

- FY2022: $11.88

- FY2023: $15.64

- FY2024: -$5.69

- FY2025: $9.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.36×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.60×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.9%

- FY2017: -4.9%

- FY2018: -4.1%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: 2.3%

- FY2022: 0.5%

- FY2023: 0.6%

- FY2024: -10.0%

- FY2025: -2.2%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 27% since Mar 2022 · "Agco falls after cutting 2026 outlook on weaker farm demand" (seekingalpha.com, Jul 2026) · sales +2.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:15.372Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: AGCO Q1 Earnings Call: Cost Controls and Technology Investment Offset Industry Weakness ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/agco-q1-earnings-call-cost-183550299.html))

- 2025-07-31: AGCO shares surge after earnings beat expectations, outlook raised ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475596-agco-shares-surge-after-earnings-beat-expectations-outlook-raised?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-08-26: For This Tractor Manufacturer, Tariffs Are Making Competition Even Stiffer ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/96e26de2-3187-390c-bc74-769096319bbd/for-this-tractor.html))

- 2026-02-11: Why AGCO (AGCO) Is Up 16.5% After 2025 Earnings Rebound and 2026 Guidance Update ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-agco-agco-16-5-171802272.html))

- 2026-07-30: Agco falls after cutting 2026 outlook on weaker farm demand ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4621920-agco-falls-after-cutting-2026-outlook-on-weaker-farm-demand?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-01: AGCO Q2 Deep Dive: Lower Demand and Guidance Cuts Prompt Strategic Adjustments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/agco-q2-deep-dive-lower-024357227.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $8.3B 

- FY2018: $9.4B 

- FY2019: $9.0B 

- FY2020: $9.1B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $10B 

- FY2026: $10B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 20.6% 

- FY2018: 20.7% 

- FY2019: 21.3% 

- FY2020: 21.8% 

- FY2021: 22.5% 

- FY2022: 23.4% 

- FY2023: 26.2% 

- FY2024: 24.4% 

- FY2025: 24.8% 

- FY2026: 25.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are USD 10.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 10082000000; grossProfit 2495700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AGCO.US: AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and replacement parts worldwide. It offers horsepower tractors for row crop production, soil cultivation, planting, land leveling, seeding, and commercial hay operations; utility tractors for small- and medium-sized farms, as well as for dairy, livestock, orchards, and vineyards; and compact tractors for small farms, specialty agricultural industries, landscaping, equestrian, and residential uses. The company also provides grain storage bins and related drying and handling equipment systems; seed-processing systems; swine and poultry feed storage and delivery systems; ventilation and watering systems; and egg production systems and broiler production equipment. In addition, it offers round and rectangular balers, loader wagons, self-propelled windrowers, forage harvesters, disc mowers, spreaders, rakes, tedders, and mower conditioners for harvesting and packaging vegetative feeds used in cattle, dairy, horse, and renewable fuel industries. Further, the company provides implements, including disc harrows leveling seed beds and mixing chemicals with the soils; heavy tillage to break up soil and mix crop residue into topsoil; field cultivators that prepare smooth seed bed and destroy weeds; drills for small grain seeding; planters and other planting equipment; and loaders. Additionally, it offers combines for harvesting grain crops, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice; and application equipment, including self-propelled, three- and four-wheeled vehicles, and related equipment for liquid and dry fertilizers and crop protection chemicals, and for after crops emerge from the ground, as well as produces diesel engines, gears, and generating sets. The company markets its products under the Fendt, Massey Ferguson, PTx, and Valtra brands through a network of independent dealers and distributors. AGCO Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.4% to 26.2% during 2023–25; it earns 18.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09811926605504587],[2018,0.14314342304305414],[2019,0.132396839332748],[2020,0.18987471787186308],[2021,0.3150190140726708],[2022,0.2928346425046281],[2023,0.3305853496085675],[2024,0.18891640563821457],[2025,0.1664403630386622],[2026,0.294310056037127]]; median 0.18939556175503883. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

We estimate that worldwide average price increases (decreases) were approximately 1.1% and (0.9)% in 2025 and 2024, respectively.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Additionally, the increase in income from operations during 2025 was the result of decreases in restructuring and business optimization expenses and selling, general and administrative expenses (“SG&A expenses”) primarily related to lower compensation costs and transaction costs, partially offset by lower sales and production volumes reflecting weak industry conditions. We estimate that worldwide average price increases (decreases) were approximately 1.1% and (0.9)% in 2025 and 2024, respectively. Consolidated net sales of tractors and combines, which comprised approximately 68.8% of our net sales in 2025, decreased approximately 6.4% in 2025 compared to 2024.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 250 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 201000000; owner earnings 233700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 203900000; owner earnings 262300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 203300000; owner earnings 372100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 273400000; owner earnings 123800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 269900000; owner earnings 429200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 269800000; owner earnings 909000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 118700000; upkeep 269600000; owner earnings 889600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13343075539568344.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 230000000; upkeep 288100000; owner earnings 1171400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19634625234761824.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 247900000; owner earnings 806200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,42500000],[2017,44500000],[2018,47100000],[2019,48000000],[2020,48000000],[2021,358500000],[2022,404300000],[2023,457400000],[2024,273100000],[2025,86500000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 250000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AGCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 17.977999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0665158809225867. Price 106.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.617680815154994 → FY2025 10.821476510067114. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $51.08 per share

- 2016-11: $55.80 per share

- 2016-12: $57.86 per share

- 2017-01: $62.80 per share

- 2017-02: $60.92 per share

- 2017-03: $60.18 per share

- 2017-04: $63.99 per share

- 2017-05: $64.03 per share

- 2017-06: $67.39 per share

- 2017-07: $72.14 per share

- 2017-08: $68.45 per share

- 2017-09: $73.77 per share

- 2017-10: $68.57 per share

- 2017-11: $70.78 per share

- 2017-12: $71.43 per share

- 2018-01: $72.62 per share

- 2018-02: $66.60 per share

- 2018-03: $64.85 per share

- 2018-04: $62.68 per share

- 2018-05: $63.60 per share

- 2018-06: $60.72 per share

- 2018-07: $63.02 per share

- 2018-08: $59.66 per share

- 2018-09: $60.79 per share

- 2018-10: $56.04 per share

- 2018-11: $59.68 per share

- 2018-12: $55.67 per share

- 2019-01: $64.20 per share

- 2019-02: $67.58 per share

- 2019-03: $69.55 per share

- 2019-04: $70.78 per share

- 2019-05: $66.56 per share

- 2019-06: $77.57 per share

- 2019-07: $77.00 per share

- 2019-08: $69.12 per share

- 2019-09: $75.70 per share

- 2019-10: $76.69 per share

- 2019-11: $78.13 per share

- 2019-12: $77.25 per share

- 2020-01: $70.14 per share

- 2020-02: $60.43 per share

- 2020-03: $47.25 per share

- 2020-04: $52.84 per share

- 2020-05: $55.23 per share

- 2020-06: $55.46 per share

- 2020-07: $65.63 per share

- 2020-08: $71.10 per share

- 2020-09: $74.27 per share

- 2020-10: $77.03 per share

- 2020-11: $92.51 per share

- 2020-12: $103.09 per share

- 2021-01: $110.90 per share

- 2021-02: $129.48 per share

- 2021-03: $143.65 per share

- 2021-04: $145.92 per share

- 2021-05: $138.37 per share

- 2021-06: $130.38 per share

- 2021-07: $132.11 per share

- 2021-08: $137.62 per share

- 2021-09: $122.53 per share

- 2021-10: $122.21 per share

- 2021-11: $110.21 per share

- 2021-12: $116.02 per share

- 2022-01: $117.20 per share

- 2022-02: $120.16 per share

- 2022-03: $146.03 per share

- 2022-04: $127.40 per share

- 2022-05: $128.13 per share

- 2022-06: $98.70 per share

- 2022-07: $108.92 per share

- 2022-08: $108.71 per share

- 2022-09: $96.17 per share

- 2022-10: $124.17 per share

- 2022-11: $132.72 per share

- 2022-12: $138.69 per share

- 2023-01: $138.13 per share

- 2023-02: $140.81 per share

- 2023-03: $135.20 per share

- 2023-04: $123.94 per share

- 2023-05: $110.28 per share

- 2023-06: $131.42 per share

- 2023-07: $133.10 per share

- 2023-08: $129.53 per share

- 2023-09: $118.28 per share

- 2023-10: $114.66 per share

- 2023-11: $113.53 per share

- 2023-12: $121.41 per share

- 2024-01: $122.33 per share

- 2024-02: $109.70 per share

- 2024-03: $123.02 per share

- 2024-04: $114.19 per share

- 2024-05: $107.33 per share

- 2024-06: $97.88 per share

- 2024-07: $94.42 per share

- 2024-08: $91.04 per share

- 2024-09: $97.86 per share

- 2024-10: $99.84 per share

- 2024-11: $101.21 per share

- 2024-12: $93.48 per share

- 2025-01: $104.43 per share

- 2025-02: $96.97 per share

- 2025-03: $92.57 per share

- 2025-04: $84.83 per share

- 2025-05: $97.98 per share

- 2025-06: $103.16 per share

- 2025-07: $117.97 per share

- 2025-08: $108.19 per share

- 2025-09: $107.07 per share

- 2025-10: $103.16 per share

- 2025-11: $105.96 per share

- 2025-12: $104.32 per share

- 2026-01: $113.41 per share

- 2026-02: $136.50 per share

- 2026-03: $115.87 per share

- 2026-04: $121.02 per share

- 2026-05: $112.28 per share

- 2026-06: $119.70 per share

- 2026-07: $102.16 per share

- 2026-08: $118.31 per share

- 2026-09: $114.23 per share

- 2026-10: $106.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $45.28 per share, central $51.05 per share, high $58.73 per share

- FY2017: low $47.84 per share, central $54.09 per share, high $62.41 per share

- FY2018: low $52.78 per share, central $59.81 per share, high $69.18 per share

- FY2019: low $47.88 per share, central $59.48 per share, high $68.91 per share

- FY2020: low $58.57 per share, central $70.95 per share, high $80.80 per share

- FY2021: low $80.90 per share, central $101.92 per share, high $117.67 per share

- FY2022: low $105.40 per share, central $134.79 per share, high $156.41 per share

- FY2023: low $174.80 per share, central $229.82 per share, high $268.29 per share

- FY2024: low $135.45 per share, central $166.95 per share, high $193.94 per share

- FY2025: low $127.14 per share, central $143.45 per share, high $165.16 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880266/000088026626000010/agco-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.