# AGL Energy (AGL.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AGL.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 8.82 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 2.05 per share, central AUD 2.25 per share, high AUD 2.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 2.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.3% at the stated quote. About 4.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.85×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: -0.08×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.00×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.8%

- FY2018: 14.4%

- FY2019: 13.9%

- FY2020: 16.2%

- FY2021: -11.9%

- FY2022: 18.8%

- FY2023: 10.5%

- FY2024: 14.7%

- FY2025: 0.4%

- FY2026: 17.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 396M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 965M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 36.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.11×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 2.14×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.9% vs 14.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.82 to 1.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: AUD -11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD -2.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.2%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.82

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 1.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.15

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 3.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 3.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.82

- FY2018: AUD 2.42

- FY2019: AUD 1.39

- FY2020: AUD 1.63

- FY2021: AUD -3.21

- FY2022: AUD 1.28

- FY2023: AUD -1.87

- FY2024: AUD 1.05

- FY2025: AUD -0.15

- FY2026: AUD 1.12

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.80×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.52×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.62×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.4%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -7.5%

- FY2021: -21.4%

- FY2022: -1.9%

- FY2023: -14.3%

- FY2024: -9.8%

- FY2025: -5.8%

- FY2026: -2.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Jul 2023 · sales -1.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.733Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.8% a year for ten years

- 2026-08-12: AGL Profit Jumps on Asset Sale as Underlying Earnings Slip ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/agl-profit-jumps-asset-sale-012346091.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 13B 

- FY2018: AUD 13B 

- FY2019: AUD 13B 

- FY2020: AUD 12B 

- FY2021: AUD 11B 

- FY2022: AUD 13B 

- FY2023: AUD 14B 

- FY2024: AUD 14B 

- FY2025: AUD 14B 

- FY2026: AUD 14B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 26.9% 

- FY2018: 29.2% 

- FY2019: 28.7% 

- FY2020: 18.6% 

- FY2021: 13.6% 

- FY2022: 8.2% 

- FY2023: 8.1% 

- FY2024: 15.8% 

- FY2025: 21.2% 

- FY2026: 13.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities independent power producers; annual sales are AUD 13.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2026: revenue 13590000000; grossProfit 1877000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AGL.AU: AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of private electricity generation portfolio in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company is involved in the retailing of electricity, gas and energy-related products and services to residential, small, and large business customers; sales, marketing, brand, customer contact, and call center operations; and power generation portfolio and other key assets, including coal, gas and renewable generation facilities, grid-scale batteries, natural gas storage infrastructure, and development projects. It also provides solar and batteries for home; AGL internet; mobile SIM plans; and electric vehicles, home chargers, and EV electricity plan, as well as EV subscription and public EV charging; and moving houses and business services. The company was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13.8% to 21.2% during 2024–26; it earns 14.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 13.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.13818190512687847],[2018,0.14411370838509877],[2019,0.1390125399860118],[2020,0.16216818512168388],[2021,-0.118715112321307],[2022,0.18840508362997618],[2023,0.10534349671941336],[2024,0.146916769438912],[2025,0.004372137404580152],[2026,0.1752385929495757]]; median 0.14156312418555528. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 10 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 503000000; owner earnings 541000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2018: growth capex 136075737.94757104; upkeep 583924262.052429; owner earnings 1571075737.947571. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08661309869461689.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2019: growth capex 243637345.2164489; upkeep 671362654.7835511; owner earnings 853237345.2164489. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28554463372046035.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 714000000; owner earnings 1019200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 636000000; owner earnings 954000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 838000000; owner earnings 685600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 1438000000; owner earnings 86400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,517000000],[2018,682000000],[2019,774000000],[2020,719000000],[2021,573000000],[2022,317000000],[2023,121000000],[2024,330000000],[2025,390000000],[2026,329000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 10000000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 10.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AGL.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 10.494 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.654Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.30468512250913216. Price 8.82; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.6048032943991213 → FY2026 0.1282943547662615. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 19.18 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 20.98 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 22.09 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 22.60 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 24.12 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 26.37 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 26.76 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 26.35 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 25.50 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 24.10 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 23.99 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 23.37 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 25.27 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 24.99 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 24.36 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 23.44 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 21.86 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 21.68 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 21.73 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 22.10 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 22.48 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 21.99 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 20.78 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 19.50 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 18.00 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 18.81 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 20.60 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 21.42 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 21.21 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 21.77 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 22.23 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 20.55 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 20.01 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 20.97 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 18.96 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 19.16 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 19.78 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 20.41 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 20.53 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 19.95 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 19.14 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 17.19 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 16.96 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 16.76 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 17.05 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 16.62 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 14.80 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 13.62 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 12.48 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 13.50 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 11.95 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 11.47 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 9.37 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 9.65 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 8.93 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 8.12 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 8.20 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 7.23 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 6.45 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 5.78 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 5.72 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 6.14 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 7.10 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 7.52 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 7.72 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 8.68 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 8.76 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 8.25 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 8.38 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.68 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 6.84 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 6.81 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 7.96 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 8.07 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 7.65 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 6.90 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 8.05 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 8.30 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 9.39 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 10.81 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 12.19 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 11.09 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 10.73 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 10.75 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 9.43 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 9.48 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 8.67 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 8.50 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 8.34 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 9.46 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 10.23 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 10.83 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 10.38 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 11.61 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 11.83 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 10.48 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 11.20 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 11.29 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 11.52 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 10.46 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 10.52 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 10.63 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 10.15 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 9.73 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 9.72 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 8.23 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 8.85 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 9.26 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 9.40 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 9.31 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 9.05 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 9.89 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 9.86 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 9.58 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 8.56 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 8.35 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 8.28 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 8.58 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 8.17 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 8.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 9.40 per share, central AUD 12.06 per share, high AUD 14.10 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 10.98 per share, central AUD 14.52 per share, high AUD 16.95 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 9.55 per share, central AUD 10.87 per share, high AUD 12.63 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 13.92 per share, central AUD 15.82 per share, high AUD 18.34 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 12.24 per share, central AUD 13.89 per share, high AUD 16.09 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 15.61 per share, central AUD 17.75 per share, high AUD 20.60 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 14.91 per share, central AUD 16.95 per share, high AUD 19.66 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 12.13 per share, central AUD 13.66 per share, high AUD 15.70 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 2.05 per share, central AUD 2.25 per share, high AUD 2.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.