# Airbus Group SE (AIR.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AIR.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:34.671Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 194.78 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 84.46 per share, central EUR 96.91 per share, high EUR 110.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 96.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:34.671Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.52×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: -0.01×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 8

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 21.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.2%

- FY2017: 42.2%

- FY2018: 14.5%

- FY2019: 4.2%

- FY2020: -1.5%

- FY2021: 15.1%

- FY2022: 14.0%

- FY2023: 11.1%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: 35.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 20B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 22B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 39.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.91×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: 0.91×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.5% vs 11.7%

- Per-share earnings: 3.03 to 5.35 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: EUR 108B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 17B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.4%

- Per-share value change: EUR 2.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 3.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 5.35

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.02

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: EUR 6.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 26B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 1.29

- FY2017: EUR 3.03

- FY2018: EUR 3.90

- FY2019: EUR -1.75

- FY2020: EUR -1.44

- FY2021: EUR 5.36

- FY2022: EUR 5.39

- FY2023: EUR 4.80

- FY2024: EUR 5.35

- FY2025: EUR 6.60

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.31×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.61×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.65×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.2%

- FY2017: -2.1%

- FY2018: 0.5%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: 3.9%

- FY2021: -0.5%

- FY2022: -1.8%

- FY2023: -2.2%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -2.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.5% a year for ten years · "Airbus backlog gains pricing power with BofA expecting higher margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +4.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.753Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-28: Airbus warns airlines delivery delays to last three years, sources say ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-warns-airlines-delays-last-143633792.html))

- 2025-09-29: Airbus backlog gains pricing power with BofA expecting higher margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-backlog-gains-pricing-power-185608762.html))

- 2025-10-29: Airbus Cuts A220 Production Target Amid Supply-Chain Hurdles ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d38e89f0-35b9-323b-ad1a-79242005e75d/airbus-cuts-a220-production.html))

- 2026-02-19: Airbus Falls 8.1% as Pratt Engine Shortfalls Cap A320 Output at 70--75 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-falls-8-1-pratt-211438668.html))

- 2026-04-28: Airbus Reports 52% Profit Drop As Deliveries Hit Lowest Since 2009 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/airbus-reports-52-profit-drop-193839881.html))

- 2026-06-26: Airbus Wins $9.35 Billion China Eastern Jet Order ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/airbus-wins-9-35-billion-174350271.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2017: EUR 59B 

- FY2018: EUR 64B 

- FY2019: EUR 70B 

- FY2020: EUR 50B 

- FY2021: EUR 52B 

- FY2022: EUR 59B 

- FY2023: EUR 65B 

- FY2024: EUR 69B 

- FY2025: EUR 73B 

- FY2026: EUR 77B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 14.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: 7.9% 

- FY2017: 11.6% 

- FY2018: 13.8% 

- FY2019: 14.9% 

- FY2020: 11.3% 

- FY2021: 18.5% 

- FY2022: 17.3% 

- FY2023: 15.3% 

- FY2024: 15.4% 

- FY2025: 14.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are EUR 73.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 73420000000; grossProfit 10967000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AIR.PA: Airbus SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and delivery of aeronautics and aerospace products, services, and solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Airbus, Airbus Helicopters, and Airbus Defence and Space. The Airbus segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells commercial jet passenger aircraft, freighter aircraft, regional turboprop aircraft, and aircraft components, as well as provides aircraft conversion and related services. The Airbus Helicopters segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells civil and military helicopters; and provides uncrewed aerial systems and their related services. The Airbus Defence and Space segment designs, develops, delivers, and supports crewed and uncrewed military air systems and related services. This segment also offers civil and defence space systems for telecommunications, earth observations, navigation, and science and orbital systems; and services around data processing from platforms, secure communication, and cyber security. The company was formerly known as Airbus Group SE and changed its name to Airbus SE in April 2017. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Leiden, the Netherlands.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.9% to 15.4% during 2023–25; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 15.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.4%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0819487306529953],[2017,0.4219853836784409],[2018,0.14487615277817228],[2019,0.042129338302918824],[2020,-0.014926644931831655],[2021,0.15053901937005376],[2022,0.13976901272949163],[2023,0.1113804531602876],[2024,0.11693893177273187],[2025,0.3516942100355952]]; median 0.12835397225111175. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 17.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 13% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2016: growth capex 568154875.600368; upkeep 2491845124.399632; owner earnings 797154875.600368. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.712728345508103.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2558000000; owner earnings 2101000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2285000000; owner earnings 3213000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1928000000; owner earnings 4262800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2464000000; owner earnings 4152200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: growth capex 809000000; upkeep 2242000000; owner earnings 3465600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23343721144967683.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: growth capex 816000000; upkeep 2853000000; owner earnings 3842200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21237832491801573.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: growth capex 831000000; upkeep 3133000000; owner earnings 4745000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.175131717597471.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Incremental return on capital 0.1298609196833008, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,1008000000],[2017,1043000000],[2018,1161000000],[2019,1280000000],[2020,1181000000],[2021,1181000000],[2022,1181000000],[2023,1421000000],[2024,2215000000],[2025,2372000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 565000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 25.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AIR.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 25.706 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The new company could be operational in 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and satisfaction of other closing conditions.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); The project is expected to generate significant synergies, foster innovation, and deliver added value to customers, shareholders and employees. The new company could be operational in 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and satisfaction of other closing conditions. Ownership of the new company will be shared among the parent companies, with Airbus, Leonardo and Thales owning respectively 35%, 32.5% and 32.5% stakes.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15250760748221537. Price 194.78; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.3980718966976062 → FY2025 5.999291716918901. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 54.15 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 60.27 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 62.84 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 62.76 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 69.32 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 71.33 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 74.23 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 73.07 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 72.00 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 70.60 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 70.61 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 80.41 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 87.75 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 87.29 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 83.00 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 92.50 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 98.34 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 93.80 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 97.40 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 97.31 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 100.26 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 106.00 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 106.26 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 108.18 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 97.71 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 94.62 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 83.96 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 100.22 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 113.60 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 117.90 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 121.88 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 114.86 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 124.68 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 128.06 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 125.34 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 119.20 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 128.42 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 133.40 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 130.48 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 133.24 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 108.10 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 59.34 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 57.88 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 56.70 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 63.52 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 62.01 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 68.84 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 62.07 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 62.59 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 87.73 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 89.78 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 83.20 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 95.91 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 96.54 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 99.94 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 106.66 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 108.44 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 115.70 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 115.70 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 115.10 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 110.60 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 98.72 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 112.36 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 112.12 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 114.90 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 110.36 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 105.54 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 108.78 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 92.45 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 104.88 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 97.89 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 88.89 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 109.58 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 109.20 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 111.02 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 114.84 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 124.02 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 123.28 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 127.14 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 122.54 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 132.36 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 133.98 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 135.38 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 126.98 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 126.28 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 136.20 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 139.78 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 147.80 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 152.94 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 170.72 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 154.68 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 155.90 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 128.26 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 139.96 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 138.82 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 131.22 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 140.16 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 147.56 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 154.78 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 167.12 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 165.70 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 162.78 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 147.14 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 162.08 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 177.26 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 176.04 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 179.06 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 197.40 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 213.40 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 204.45 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 198.40 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 193.40 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 184.24 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 160.82 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 174.88 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 179.70 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 194.54 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 202.20 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 197.24 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 190.62 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 194.78 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 37.97 per share, central EUR 45.77 per share, high EUR 51.08 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 46.52 per share, central EUR 50.58 per share, high EUR 55.98 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 48.68 per share, central EUR 53.41 per share, high EUR 59.72 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 54.33 per share, central EUR 66.36 per share, high EUR 75.18 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 28.50 per share, central EUR 29.65 per share, high EUR 31.18 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 45.37 per share, central EUR 48.92 per share, high EUR 53.66 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 62.78 per share, central EUR 68.45 per share, high EUR 76.00 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 71.47 per share, central EUR 79.91 per share, high EUR 89.33 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 77.17 per share, central EUR 86.65 per share, high EUR 97.13 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 87.55 per share, central EUR 99.44 per share, high EUR 112.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:20.687Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/MINO79WLOO247M1IL051-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.