# Aker BP ASA (AKRBP.OL)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/AKRBP.OL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: NOK. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: NOK 366.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low NOK 196.65 per share, central NOK 218.45 per share, high NOK 247.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value NOK 218.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.8% at the stated quote. About 6.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NO 10-year bond 4.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.31×

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.53×

- FY2019: 0.40×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.55×

- FY2022: 0.70×

- FY2023: 0.66×

- FY2024: 0.67×

- FY2025: 0.43×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 45.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -11.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 45.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.3%

- FY2017: 15.3%

- FY2018: 41.3%

- FY2019: 20.8%

- FY2020: 7.1%

- FY2021: 82.3%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 50.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.37×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 28.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: -0.56×

- FY2025: -35.40×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.3% vs 138.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.17 to 2.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 12.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 11.9%

- Market cap gain: $14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 11.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 36.8%

- Per-share value change: $1.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $16B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.17

- FY2017: $0.81

- FY2018: $1.32

- FY2019: $0.39

- FY2020: $0.12

- FY2021: $2.30

- FY2022: $3.23

- FY2023: $2.12

- FY2024: $2.89

- FY2025: $0.21

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -15.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.69×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 52.59×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.3%

- FY2017: -15.6%

- FY2018: -30.8%

- FY2019: -14.3%

- FY2020: -14.6%

- FY2021: -23.9%

- FY2022: -11.0%

- FY2023: -10.4%

- FY2024: -10.9%

- FY2025: -15.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years · "Costs Soar at Aker BP’s Biggest North Sea Projects" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales -10.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.211Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -10.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: $1.3B 

- FY2017: $2.6B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $3.3B 

- FY2020: $2.9B 

- FY2021: $5.6B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 89.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 29.9% 

- FY2017: 42.7% 

- FY2018: 61.1% 

- FY2019: 45.0% 

- FY2020: 32.9% 

- FY2021: 65.6% 

- FY2022: 78.9% 

- FY2023: 74.5% 

- FY2024: 72.9% 

- FY2025: 89.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 10.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2025: revenue 10943100000; grossProfit 9768200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 72.9% to 89.3% during 2023–25; it earns 45.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 74.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 72.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 89.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08294378926713857],[2017,0.15275511773049183],[2018,0.4131459914181456],[2019,0.20799659618255534],[2020,0.07056820379648748],[2021,0.8231913370676578],[2022,5.066548412481033],[2023,2.504118453758464],[2024,1.3826910700955028],[2025,0.504206411992652]]; median 0.4586762017053988. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2016: growth capex 608220000; upkeep 509027000; owner earnings 34971000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 17.392124903491464.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2017: growth capex 362516000; upkeep 726670000; owner earnings 274787000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3192618282524282.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2018: growth capex 1152104000; upkeep 752437000; owner earnings 475778000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.421515917087381.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2021: growth capex 361454000; upkeep 1192889000; owner earnings 800685400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4514307367163183.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2022: growth capex 46209000; upkeep 1785600000; owner earnings 1576021400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029320033344724886.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2023: growth capex 1003400000; upkeep 2406800000; owner earnings 1194860000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8397636543193345.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,62500000],[2017,250000000],[2018,450000000],[2019,750000000],[2020,425000000],[2021,487500000],[2022,1005700000],[2023,1390400000],[2024,1516900000],[2025,1592700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 5600000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); AKRBP.OL SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50.522 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:33.471Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10817917198999549. Price 366.5; FX 9.475080538184574; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.5430567578692183 → FY2025 -7.428514690422247. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (NOK per share)

- 2016-10: NOK 132.60 per share

- 2016-11: NOK 138.40 per share

- 2016-12: NOK 154.50 per share

- 2017-01: NOK 149.70 per share

- 2017-02: NOK 147.50 per share

- 2017-03: NOK 137.60 per share

- 2017-04: NOK 145.70 per share

- 2017-05: NOK 138.00 per share

- 2017-06: NOK 123.50 per share

- 2017-07: NOK 148.40 per share

- 2017-08: NOK 142.00 per share

- 2017-09: NOK 154.00 per share

- 2017-10: NOK 187.80 per share

- 2017-11: NOK 195.70 per share

- 2017-12: NOK 201.90 per share

- 2018-01: NOK 223.00 per share

- 2018-02: NOK 197.60 per share

- 2018-03: NOK 212.20 per share

- 2018-04: NOK 264.20 per share

- 2018-05: NOK 299.00 per share

- 2018-06: NOK 300.80 per share

- 2018-07: NOK 291.60 per share

- 2018-08: NOK 297.00 per share

- 2018-09: NOK 345.40 per share

- 2018-10: NOK 278.00 per share

- 2018-11: NOK 243.60 per share

- 2018-12: NOK 218.00 per share

- 2019-01: NOK 280.80 per share

- 2019-02: NOK 290.00 per share

- 2019-03: NOK 307.00 per share

- 2019-04: NOK 284.50 per share

- 2019-05: NOK 236.40 per share

- 2019-06: NOK 244.60 per share

- 2019-07: NOK 252.00 per share

- 2019-08: NOK 241.80 per share

- 2019-09: NOK 243.40 per share

- 2019-10: NOK 253.90 per share

- 2019-11: NOK 264.30 per share

- 2019-12: NOK 288.00 per share

- 2020-01: NOK 261.20 per share

- 2020-02: NOK 221.70 per share

- 2020-03: NOK 132.60 per share

- 2020-04: NOK 170.10 per share

- 2020-05: NOK 156.15 per share

- 2020-06: NOK 175.30 per share

- 2020-07: NOK 169.95 per share

- 2020-08: NOK 173.80 per share

- 2020-09: NOK 145.90 per share

- 2020-10: NOK 148.30 per share

- 2020-11: NOK 201.50 per share

- 2020-12: NOK 216.20 per share

- 2021-01: NOK 214.30 per share

- 2021-02: NOK 225.30 per share

- 2021-03: NOK 242.80 per share

- 2021-04: NOK 238.80 per share

- 2021-05: NOK 244.00 per share

- 2021-06: NOK 274.40 per share

- 2021-07: NOK 238.70 per share

- 2021-08: NOK 227.00 per share

- 2021-09: NOK 285.10 per share

- 2021-10: NOK 323.90 per share

- 2021-11: NOK 286.40 per share

- 2021-12: NOK 271.60 per share

- 2022-01: NOK 306.60 per share

- 2022-02: NOK 273.50 per share

- 2022-03: NOK 330.60 per share

- 2022-04: NOK 340.50 per share

- 2022-05: NOK 407.80 per share

- 2022-06: NOK 342.10 per share

- 2022-07: NOK 333.90 per share

- 2022-08: NOK 347.70 per share

- 2022-09: NOK 312.60 per share

- 2022-10: NOK 331.40 per share

- 2022-11: NOK 341.70 per share

- 2022-12: NOK 304.10 per share

- 2023-01: NOK 303.20 per share

- 2023-02: NOK 280.30 per share

- 2023-03: NOK 256.30 per share

- 2023-04: NOK 254.50 per share

- 2023-05: NOK 241.20 per share

- 2023-06: NOK 251.80 per share

- 2023-07: NOK 283.30 per share

- 2023-08: NOK 288.60 per share

- 2023-09: NOK 296.00 per share

- 2023-10: NOK 321.10 per share

- 2023-11: NOK 310.10 per share

- 2023-12: NOK 295.50 per share

- 2024-01: NOK 280.80 per share

- 2024-02: NOK 257.70 per share

- 2024-03: NOK 269.80 per share

- 2024-04: NOK 272.00 per share

- 2024-05: NOK 268.90 per share

- 2024-06: NOK 272.20 per share

- 2024-07: NOK 264.90 per share

- 2024-08: NOK 253.90 per share

- 2024-09: NOK 226.20 per share

- 2024-10: NOK 234.60 per share

- 2024-11: NOK 226.40 per share

- 2024-12: NOK 221.70 per share

- 2025-01: NOK 236.70 per share

- 2025-02: NOK 232.50 per share

- 2025-03: NOK 249.50 per share

- 2025-04: NOK 223.20 per share

- 2025-05: NOK 235.00 per share

- 2025-06: NOK 257.80 per share

- 2025-07: NOK 250.30 per share

- 2025-08: NOK 253.90 per share

- 2025-09: NOK 253.10 per share

- 2025-10: NOK 262.90 per share

- 2025-11: NOK 246.30 per share

- 2025-12: NOK 256.90 per share

- 2026-01: NOK 281.40 per share

- 2026-02: NOK 286.20 per share

- 2026-03: NOK 361.10 per share

- 2026-04: NOK 360.60 per share

- 2026-05: NOK 332.60 per share

- 2026-06: NOK 303.20 per share

- 2026-07: NOK 334.50 per share

- 2026-08: NOK 357.50 per share

- 2026-09: NOK 340.30 per share

- 2026-10: NOK 360.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (NOK per share)

- FY2018: low NOK 36.84 per share, central NOK 52.63 per share, high NOK 61.82 per share

- FY2019: low NOK 34.22 per share, central NOK 48.43 per share, high NOK 56.70 per share

- FY2020: low NOK 41.16 per share, central NOK 53.38 per share, high NOK 60.49 per share

- FY2021: low NOK 264.69 per share, central NOK 357.13 per share, high NOK 410.95 per share

- FY2022: low NOK 456.32 per share, central NOK 631.44 per share, high NOK 733.42 per share

- FY2023: low NOK 290.65 per share, central NOK 395.15 per share, high NOK 456.00 per share

- FY2024: low NOK 277.89 per share, central NOK 372.02 per share, high NOK 426.84 per share

- FY2025: low NOK 194.61 per share, central NOK 216.42 per share, high NOK 245.45 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.