# Ampol (ALD.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALD.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 43.21 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 7.90 per share, central AUD 8.99 per share, high AUD 10.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 8.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.4% at the stated quote. About 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.95×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 7.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 6.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 20.8%

- FY2017: 19.1%

- FY2018: 15.1%

- FY2019: 10.2%

- FY2020: -9.8%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 11.1%

- FY2023: 13.2%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: 3.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 661M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 2.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -76.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.72×

- FY2022: 0.79×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: -1.50×

- FY2025: -4.84×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.1% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.35 to 0.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: AUD -294M

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 170M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -17.3%

- Per-share value change: AUD -1.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 2.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.71

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 2.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 3.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: AUD 2.35

- FY2017: AUD 2.37

- FY2018: AUD 2.15

- FY2019: AUD 1.52

- FY2020: AUD -1.97

- FY2021: AUD 2.34

- FY2022: AUD 3.32

- FY2023: AUD 2.30

- FY2024: AUD 0.51

- FY2025: AUD 0.35

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 9.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.40×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -1.8%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: -5.5%

- FY2020: -10.2%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: -7.5%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -5.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21% a year for ten years · "Ampol Profit Surges as Middle East Disruption Boosts Refining Margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -11.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.837Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21% a year for ten years

- 2026-08-24: Ampol Profit Surges as Middle East Disruption Boosts Refining Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/ampol-profit-surges-middle-east-022752166.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: AUD 18B 

- FY2017: AUD 21B 

- FY2018: AUD 22B 

- FY2019: AUD 22B 

- FY2020: AUD 15B 

- FY2021: AUD 21B 

- FY2022: AUD 38B 

- FY2023: AUD 38B 

- FY2024: AUD 35B 

- FY2025: AUD 31B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 6.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 9.5% 

- FY2017: 8.7% 

- FY2018: 8.9% 

- FY2019: 7.6% 

- FY2020: 6.4% 

- FY2021: 9.7% 

- FY2022: 6.7% 

- FY2023: 7.8% 

- FY2024: 7.0% 

- FY2025: 6.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are AUD 31 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2025: revenue 30995900000; grossProfit 2117800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALD.AU: Ampol Limited purchases and sells petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. It operates through Fuels and Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand segments. The Fuels and Infrastructure segment wholesales fuels and lubricants, including Lytton refinery, trading and shipping, distribution, infrastructure, and energy solutions. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol's network of stores. The New Zealand segment include Z Energy that distributes fuel in New Zealand market. It also engages in EV charging and home electricity solutions business. The company distributes its products through depots, terminals, pipelines, and service station sites. It sells fuels to various customers in defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial and industrial sectors. The company was formerly known as Caltex Australia Limited and changed its name to Ampol Limited in May 2020. Ampol Limited was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.8% to 7.8% during 2023–25; it earns 11% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.20771381709147105],[2017,0.1906151882234502],[2018,0.15069636021855906],[2019,0.10181123858606747],[2020,-0.09783947604982664],[2021,0.10972052097131432],[2022,0.1107733717183114],[2023,0.13153352605863958],[2024,0.05419260799793403],[2025,0.030703459290915815]]; median 0.11024694634481286. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 9.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 323221000; owner earnings 496015000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2017: growth capex 133734000; upkeep 229163000; owner earnings 619085000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21601880194157508.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2018: growth capex 37676000; upkeep 254794000; owner earnings 560416000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06722863016045223.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 280700000; owner earnings 322616000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 324200000; owner earnings 405280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 406900000; owner earnings 628200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 539300000; owner earnings 210338850.00599998. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,319405000],[2017,293107000],[2018,309357000],[2019,239000000],[2020,189800000],[2021,178700000],[2022,383600000],[2023,595600000],[2024,625100000],[2025,107200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 9400000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALD.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.218 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Penny Winn retired from the Ampol Board as an Independent Non-executive Director, effective 15 May 2025.

- Source: https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260223/pdf/06wlk9dnz1wp02.pdf (filed ); Steven was formerly the Ch [Noncontiguous filing excerpt] , Stephen Pearce, Gary Smith and Guy Templeton. Penny Winn retired from the Ampol Board as an Independent Non-executive Director, effective 15 May 2025. 1.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:38.572Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.29209557751176574. Price 43.21; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.046437037037037 → FY2025 -1.6702701679903131. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 30.73 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 30.05 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 30.46 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 28.60 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 28.14 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 29.49 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 29.87 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 33.06 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 31.61 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 31.14 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 33.39 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 32.10 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 34.26 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 34.06 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 34.05 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 34.77 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 35.17 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 31.40 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 31.02 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 29.42 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 32.54 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 32.56 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 30.21 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 29.90 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 28.26 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 27.53 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 25.48 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 26.84 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 28.60 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 26.21 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 27.21 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 26.39 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 24.75 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 26.96 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 23.96 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 26.32 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 27.27 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 34.56 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 33.95 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 34.38 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 32.70 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 22.32 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 24.92 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 27.09 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 29.32 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 26.28 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 26.02 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 23.95 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 25.94 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 30.65 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 28.42 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 26.17 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 24.58 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 24.55 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 25.59 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 28.55 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 28.21 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 28.25 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 27.56 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 27.95 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 30.55 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 28.67 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 29.66 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 29.73 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 29.47 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 30.64 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 33.85 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 33.36 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 34.23 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 33.50 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 34.58 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 28.75 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 27.23 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 28.59 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 28.28 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 30.49 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 32.96 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 30.49 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 29.93 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 31.41 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 29.94 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 32.85 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 35.30 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 33.80 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 31.86 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 34.23 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 36.15 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 36.37 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 39.40 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 39.79 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 36.81 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 34.72 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 32.34 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 33.47 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 28.93 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 30.53 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 27.90 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 29.09 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 28.19 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 29.10 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 26.51 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 23.42 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 23.70 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 25.53 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 25.74 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 27.35 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 29.40 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 29.91 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 30.70 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 30.77 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 31.93 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 28.84 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 28.17 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 33.68 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 35.17 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 33.56 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 32.90 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 39.90 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 43.06 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 44.10 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 43.35 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2016: low AUD 9.26 per share, central AUD 10.54 per share, high AUD 12.24 per share

- FY2017: low AUD 12.65 per share, central AUD 14.40 per share, high AUD 16.72 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 23.49 per share, central AUD 26.72 per share, high AUD 31.04 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 26.38 per share, central AUD 32.13 per share, high AUD 37.45 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 17.62 per share, central AUD 20.01 per share, high AUD 23.20 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 19.15 per share, central AUD 21.70 per share, high AUD 25.10 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 32.78 per share, central AUD 42.94 per share, high AUD 50.23 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 25.27 per share, central AUD 28.75 per share, high AUD 33.39 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 9.92 per share, central AUD 12.64 per share, high AUD 14.77 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 7.90 per share, central AUD 8.99 per share, high AUD 10.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.