# Alfa Financial Software Holdings (ALFA.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALFA.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:45:51.782Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 163.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 107.77 per share, central GBX 121.52 per share, high GBX 139.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 121.52 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:45:51.782Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.23×

- FY2017: 0.44×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.31×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 59.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 66.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 55.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 39.0%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 59.1%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 116M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 123M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.92×

- FY2022: 0.95×

- FY2023: 0.93×

- FY2024: 0.85×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 208.2% vs 294.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.05 to 0.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP -975M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 4.2M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.05

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.70

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 34M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 205M

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.03

- FY2017: GBP 0.09

- FY2018: GBP 0.06

- FY2019: GBP 0.03

- FY2020: GBP 0.07

- FY2021: GBP 0.06

- FY2022: GBP 0.08

- FY2023: GBP 0.08

- FY2024: GBP 0.09

- FY2025: GBP 0.10

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.26×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.72×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -20.9%

- FY2017: 9.1%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -8.9%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -11.6%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -8.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 32% since Feb 2025 · sales +15.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.534Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +15.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: GBP 73M 

- FY2017: GBP 88M 

- FY2018: GBP 71M 

- FY2019: GBP 64M 

- FY2020: GBP 79M 

- FY2021: GBP 83M 

- FY2022: GBP 93M 

- FY2023: GBP 102M 

- FY2024: GBP 110M 

- FY2025: GBP 127M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 61.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 76.6% 

- FY2017: 76.1% 

- FY2018: 73.4% 

- FY2019: 67.6% 

- FY2020: 76.7% 

- FY2021: 61.4% 

- FY2022: 61.0% 

- FY2023: 62.5% 

- FY2024: 64.5% 

- FY2025: 61.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software application; annual sales are GBP 126.7 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 126700000; grossProfit 77400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALFA.LSE: Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC, through its subsidiaries, provides software and related services to the auto and equipment finance industry in the United Kingdom, North Americas, Europe, Africa, Australasia and internationally. It operates through Subscription, Software Engineering, and Delivery segments. The company offers Alfa Systems 6, an asset finance software; and cloud hosting and software implementation services. Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC was founded in 1990 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC is a subsidiary of CHP Software and Consulting Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 61.1% to 64.5% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 62.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 64.5%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3896375027160136],[2017,6.1763534030479645],[2018,2.0817249372049083],[2019,0.5906959051416252],[2020,1.3097649439518515],[2021,1.5705531578427174],[2022,2.9850720209515496],[2023,6.4586376917458],[2024,2.500014235686018],[2025,2.9494193808408276]]; median 2.290869586445463. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 61% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6141826923076923],[2022,0.609860664523044],[2023,0.6245098039215686]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 900000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 390000; owner earnings 7916000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2017: growth capex 168000; upkeep 495000; owner earnings 25866000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.006495012758060774.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 622000; owner earnings 18404000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2076000; owner earnings 7121600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1007000; owner earnings 18889800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1300000; owner earnings 17580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2300000; owner earnings 23340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 900000; upkeep 2500000; owner earnings 21860000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04117108874656908.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 971607.4051766274; upkeep 4628392.594823373; owner earnings 21811607.40517663. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04454542882273006.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 400000; owner earnings 31140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,1000000],[2017,60743000],[2018,38000],[2019,38000],[2020,44238000],[2021,32700000],[2022,22500000],[2023,19700000],[2024,22100000],[2025,26000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: cash repurchases 900000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 54.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALFA.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 54.688 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Our largest customer represented 9% of our revenues in 2025.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); Our top five customer concentration has significantly reduced to 33% of our revenues in 2025, compared with 61% in 2019. Our largest customer represented 9% of our revenues in 2025. The stickiness of our customers on our modern software is demonstrated by NRR of 109% (2024: 103%) and the fact that since we went live in 2010 with version 5 of our software we have only lost two customers after go-live, one was bought by another Alfa customer and the other exited asset finance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.056675947765638446. Price 163.8; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.046793838942131905 → FY2025 0.1048234260496649. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2017-05: GBX 410.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 462.75 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 482.75 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 454.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 506.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 488.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 485.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 535.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 514.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 460.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 343.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 359.50 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 315.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 175.40 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 164.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 136.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 126.20 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 132.60 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 115.60 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 139.60 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 122.60 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 137.20 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 126.60 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 104.80 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 95.20 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 79.30 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 82.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 82.40 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 106.80 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 120.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 97.70 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 84.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 77.10 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 78.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 78.10 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 72.40 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 80.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 87.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 125.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 135.60 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 132.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 132.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 129.40 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 130.60 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 135.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 136.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 121.50 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 129.50 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 144.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 149.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 182.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 192.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 205.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 189.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 168.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 160.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 159.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 182.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 171.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 163.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 151.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 161.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 166.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 175.50 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 162.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 136.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 142.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 161.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 195.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 156.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 152.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 184.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 140.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 172.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 171.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 169.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 172.40 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 185.40 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 185.60 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 187.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 193.80 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 199.80 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 213.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 220.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 214.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 223.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 239.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 217.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 222.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 239.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 224.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 229.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 223.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 233.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 227.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 227.50 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 212.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 215.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 193.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 145.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 159.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 154.60 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 163.80 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 167.60 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 156.80 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 163.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2018: low GBX 81.74 per share, central GBX 91.01 per share, high GBX 103.35 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 80.57 per share, central GBX 89.02 per share, high GBX 100.27 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 80.46 per share, central GBX 89.93 per share, high GBX 102.53 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 79.15 per share, central GBX 89.08 per share, high GBX 102.31 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 86.25 per share, central GBX 97.37 per share, high GBX 112.18 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 87.06 per share, central GBX 98.15 per share, high GBX 112.91 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 104.00 per share, central GBX 134.20 per share, high GBX 155.95 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 107.94 per share, central GBX 121.72 per share, high GBX 140.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:51:44.320Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31/reports/213800C5UOZHUTNUGA28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.