# Alfa Laval AB (ALFA.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALFA.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:35.267Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 571.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 219.12 per share, central SEK 276.46 per share, high SEK 321.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 276.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:35.267Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.08×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 21.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.6%

- FY2017: 34.9%

- FY2018: 44.3%

- FY2019: 37.1%

- FY2020: 29.3%

- FY2021: 28.5%

- FY2022: 21.3%

- FY2023: 30.6%

- FY2024: 35.2%

- FY2025: 35.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.95×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 30B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 31B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 47.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 42.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.93×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 0.91×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.9% vs 35.2%

- Per-share earnings: 7.09 to 17.88 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: SEK 129B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK 26B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.2%

- Per-share value change: SEK 10.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 7.09

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 17.88

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 17B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 50B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 34.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 35.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 5.46

- FY2017: SEK 7.09

- FY2018: SEK 10.77

- FY2019: SEK 13.08

- FY2020: SEK 8.47

- FY2021: SEK 11.48

- FY2022: SEK 10.89

- FY2023: SEK 15.31

- FY2024: SEK 17.88

- FY2025: SEK 20.01

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.07×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.84×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.0%

- FY2017: -2.8%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: -6.9%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: -0.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.450Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300UCKT2UK88AG251/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: SEK 36B 

- FY2017: SEK 35B 

- FY2018: SEK 41B 

- FY2019: SEK 47B 

- FY2020: SEK 41B 

- FY2021: SEK 41B 

- FY2022: SEK 52B 

- FY2023: SEK 64B 

- FY2024: SEK 67B 

- FY2025: SEK 70B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300UCKT2UK88AG251/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 31.0% 

- FY2017: 33.8% 

- FY2018: 33.8% 

- FY2019: 33.9% 

- FY2020: 34.4% 

- FY2021: 35.5% 

- FY2022: 33.8% 

- FY2023: 32.8% 

- FY2024: 34.7% 

- FY2025: 36.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty industrial machinery; annual sales are SEK 69.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 69674000000; grossProfit 25198000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALFA.ST: Alfa Laval AB (publ) provides heat transfer, separation, and fluid handling products and solutions worldwide. The company operates through three divisions: Energy, Food & Pharma, and Ocean. It offers ballast water management systems; oil/gas-fired steam and composite steam boilers, exhaust gas economizers, electric steam boilers, and exhaust gas steam boilers; and exhaust gas cleaning products, as well as decanters and separators. The company also provides sensing and control, cleaning validation, and condition monitoring automation products; hygienic fittings, hygienic tubes, ultrapure fittings, and ultrapure tubes; agitators, tank mixers, and powder mixers; and centrifugal pumps, circumferential piston pumps, rotary lobe pumps, twin screws, three screw pumps, gear pumps, and reciprocating pumps. In addition, it offers rotary jet heads, rotary spray heads, wall mounted cleaning devices for tank cleaning, and static spray balls; and tank covers and accessories, as well as valves. Further, the company provides plate heat exchangers, air cooled heat exchangers, scraped surface heat exchangers, and tubular heat exchangers. It serves energy and utilities, home and personal care, food, dairy and beverage, marine and transportation, pharma and biotech, and water and wastewater industries. Alfa Laval AB (publ) was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32.8% to 36.2% during 2023–25; it earns 32.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 32.8%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300UCKT2UK88AG251/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.19616482452000694],[2017,0.3487519757601931],[2018,0.4434653282581683],[2019,0.3708514805474913],[2020,0.29293119389917605],[2021,0.2854201182958783],[2022,0.21306619577466498],[2023,0.30598426367603115],[2024,0.3516632833896863],[2025,0.35382686185853035]]; median 0.32736811971811214. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 2.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 47.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 617000000; owner earnings 3379000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 675000000; owner earnings 3951000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1490000000; owner earnings 4693000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1337000000; owner earnings 5677000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1232000000; owner earnings 3860000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1229000000; owner earnings 5031600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1853000000; owner earnings 4507800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2440000000; owner earnings 5893800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/549300UCKT2UK88AG251/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 690717610.3881235; upkeep 2645282389.6118765; owner earnings 6802717610.3881235. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10153554063942913.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 157000000; upkeep 2503000000; owner earnings 7513000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02089711167309996.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Incremental return on capital 0.4721677568529713, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,1783000000],[2017,1783000000],[2018,1783000000],[2019,2097000000],[2020,2307000000],[2021,2307000000],[2022,2480000000],[2023,2480000000],[2024,3100000000],[2025,3513000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 29.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALFA.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 29.624 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17497933740129923. Price 571.4; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 11.743774023658721 → FY2025 18.17692220407944. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 129.80 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 138.40 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 150.80 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 163.20 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 163.40 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 169.10 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 181.70 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 175.00 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 172.40 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 180.40 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 180.00 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 198.90 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 212.10 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 197.80 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 193.80 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 206.70 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 200.30 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 197.15 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 217.70 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 220.20 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 212.60 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 241.70 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 245.10 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 241.00 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 233.70 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 195.80 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 189.65 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 204.80 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 202.00 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 213.40 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 220.40 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 194.95 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 202.60 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 181.10 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 180.70 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 194.30 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 223.10 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 235.60 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 235.90 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 241.00 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 216.10 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 172.25 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 183.50 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 189.90 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 204.40 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 207.10 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 211.40 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 198.80 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 180.50 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 216.30 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 226.30 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 219.60 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 261.30 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 264.00 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 286.40 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 312.90 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 302.30 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 359.40 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 350.00 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 328.60 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 367.70 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 350.10 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 364.40 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 311.50 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 310.00 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 325.30 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 276.90 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 263.60 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 246.60 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 302.00 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 285.50 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 278.40 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 272.10 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 297.70 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 301.10 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 327.00 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 345.00 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 369.70 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 375.50 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 389.80 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 393.00 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 393.90 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 385.20 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 375.80 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 360.60 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 391.40 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 403.40 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 384.10 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 389.70 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 420.80 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 473.60 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 485.20 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 464.10 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 473.00 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 459.90 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 487.60 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 469.90 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 464.30 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 462.60 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 495.70 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 464.50 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 428.90 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 400.10 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 407.70 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 397.80 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 426.50 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 430.50 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 428.40 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 454.00 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 445.70 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 465.70 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 517.40 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 535.00 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 507.80 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 548.00 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 519.40 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 577.00 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 563.60 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 574.80 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 559.20 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 590.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 116.52 per share, central SEK 134.52 per share, high SEK 155.65 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 111.61 per share, central SEK 125.80 per share, high SEK 144.70 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 128.29 per share, central SEK 144.64 per share, high SEK 166.40 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 191.14 per share, central SEK 261.80 per share, high SEK 304.93 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 143.82 per share, central SEK 163.03 per share, high SEK 187.05 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 131.30 per share, central SEK 148.46 per share, high SEK 171.31 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 178.84 per share, central SEK 216.39 per share, high SEK 250.79 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 187.52 per share, central SEK 238.67 per share, high SEK 277.13 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 205.12 per share, central SEK 265.14 per share, high SEK 307.59 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 223.81 per share, central SEK 280.54 per share, high SEK 325.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300UCKT2UK88AG251/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/549300UCKT2UK88AG251-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.