# The Allstate (ALL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:24.101Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $239.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $306.41 per share, central $383.02 per share, high $510.69 per share. Buy at or below the central value $383.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:24.101Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.4% at the stated quote. About 12.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 8

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.92×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.8B

- FY2017: $3.4B

- FY2018: $2.0B

- FY2019: $4.7B

- FY2020: $5.5B

- FY2021: $1.5B

- FY2022: -$1.4B

- FY2023: -$316M

- FY2024: $4.6B

- FY2025: $10B

### moat: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 17.2%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: -2.4%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.9%

- FY2017: 24.8%

- FY2018: 12.5%

- FY2019: 22.6%

- FY2020: 21.5%

- FY2021: 8.3%

- FY2022: -12.9%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: 26.1%

- FY2025: 37.7%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 13.8%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $44.93

- Ending book value per share: $114.60

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.9%

- FY2017: 16.2%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: 33.3%

- FY2020: 28.7%

- FY2021: -10.9%

- FY2022: -21.1%

- FY2023: 24.5%

- FY2024: 23.6%

- FY2025: 48.0%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -4.1%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -3.3%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 3.24×

- Book value created per share: $69.67

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $21.51

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 93

- FY2017: 90

- FY2018: 87

- FY2019: 82

- FY2020: 78

- FY2021: 74

- FY2022: 67

- FY2023: 65

- FY2024: 66

- FY2025: 66

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 3.6% a year forever · net income +123.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:16.628Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 3.6% a year forever

- 2025-04-30: Allstate's first-quarter profit falls as catastrophe losses triple ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/allstates-first-quarter-profit-falls-212312880.html))

- 2025-05-01: Allstate Q1 Earnings Beat on Strong Premium Despite Massive CAT Loss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allstate-q1-earnings-beat-strong-121000137.html))

- 2025-11-06: Allstate Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Rising Investment Income ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allstate-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-171400511.html))

- 2026-02-04: Allstate posts Q4 earnings beat, boosts dividend by 8%, unveils $4B buyback plan ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547568-allstate-posts-q4-earnings-beat-boosts-dividend-by-8-unveils-4b-buyback-plan?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-30: ALL Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Underwriting, Lower Expenses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/q1-earnings-beat-estimates-strong-172700250.html))

- 2026-07-16: Allstate estimates June catastrophe losses at $1.72B ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4614575-allstate-estimates-june-catastrophe-losses-at-1_72b?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +123.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000031/all-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: $1.8B 

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $4.7B 

- FY2020: $5.5B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: -$1.4B 

- FY2023: -$316M 

- FY2024: $4.6B 

- FY2025: $10B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are USD 67.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000031/all-20251231.htm#000089905126000031 (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 67685000000.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALL.US: The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. It operates in four segments: Allstate Protection; Run-off Property-Liability; Protection Services; and Corporate and Other. The company offers private passenger auto, homeowners, other personal lines and commercial insurance through exclusive agents, independent agents, contact centers and online under the Allstate, National General, Direct Auto and Answer Financial brands. It also provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, and protection plans; and insurance products, such as identity protection and restoration. In addition, the company offers property and casualty insurance, as well as engages in company activities and certain non-insurance operations, including expenses associated with strategic initiatives. Further, it offers automotive protection; vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection, road hazard tires and wheels, and paintless dent repair protection; and roadside assistance, mobility data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, identity theft protection, and remediation services. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

It earns 17.2% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.1289731946682291],[2017,0.24774807234993154],[2018,0.12466695582130244],[2019,0.2257286238177958],[2020,0.21478859390363816],[2021,0.08309328606248616],[2022,-0.12860965033674693],[2023,-0.023755826191550145],[2024,0.2608496244911999],[2025,0.3774040246528551]]; median 0.17188089428593362. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,602000000],[2017,641000000],[2018,748000000],[2019,787000000],[2020,776000000],[2021,999000000],[2022,1031000000],[2023,1032000000],[2024,1079000000],[2025,1153000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000031/all-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 1233000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.498 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Business, strategy and operations" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000031/all-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); Business, strategy and operations

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 3.6% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Price 239.6; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 15.320683175047861; discount 0.1; growth 0.03605724885205401. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $67.90 per share

- 2016-11: $69.92 per share

- 2016-12: $74.12 per share

- 2017-01: $75.21 per share

- 2017-02: $82.16 per share

- 2017-03: $81.49 per share

- 2017-04: $81.29 per share

- 2017-05: $86.34 per share

- 2017-06: $88.44 per share

- 2017-07: $91.00 per share

- 2017-08: $90.50 per share

- 2017-09: $91.91 per share

- 2017-10: $93.86 per share

- 2017-11: $102.66 per share

- 2017-12: $104.71 per share

- 2018-01: $98.77 per share

- 2018-02: $92.26 per share

- 2018-03: $94.80 per share

- 2018-04: $97.82 per share

- 2018-05: $93.48 per share

- 2018-06: $91.27 per share

- 2018-07: $95.12 per share

- 2018-08: $100.57 per share

- 2018-09: $98.70 per share

- 2018-10: $95.72 per share

- 2018-11: $89.19 per share

- 2018-12: $82.63 per share

- 2019-01: $87.87 per share

- 2019-02: $94.38 per share

- 2019-03: $94.18 per share

- 2019-04: $99.06 per share

- 2019-05: $95.51 per share

- 2019-06: $101.69 per share

- 2019-07: $107.40 per share

- 2019-08: $102.39 per share

- 2019-09: $108.68 per share

- 2019-10: $106.42 per share

- 2019-11: $111.35 per share

- 2019-12: $112.45 per share

- 2020-01: $118.54 per share

- 2020-02: $105.25 per share

- 2020-03: $91.73 per share

- 2020-04: $101.72 per share

- 2020-05: $97.81 per share

- 2020-06: $96.99 per share

- 2020-07: $94.39 per share

- 2020-08: $93.00 per share

- 2020-09: $94.14 per share

- 2020-10: $88.75 per share

- 2020-11: $102.35 per share

- 2020-12: $109.93 per share

- 2021-01: $107.18 per share

- 2021-02: $106.60 per share

- 2021-03: $114.90 per share

- 2021-04: $126.80 per share

- 2021-05: $136.61 per share

- 2021-06: $130.44 per share

- 2021-07: $130.05 per share

- 2021-08: $135.28 per share

- 2021-09: $127.31 per share

- 2021-10: $123.67 per share

- 2021-11: $108.72 per share

- 2021-12: $117.65 per share

- 2022-01: $120.67 per share

- 2022-02: $122.36 per share

- 2022-03: $138.51 per share

- 2022-04: $126.54 per share

- 2022-05: $136.69 per share

- 2022-06: $126.73 per share

- 2022-07: $116.97 per share

- 2022-08: $120.50 per share

- 2022-09: $124.53 per share

- 2022-10: $126.25 per share

- 2022-11: $133.90 per share

- 2022-12: $135.60 per share

- 2023-01: $128.47 per share

- 2023-02: $128.78 per share

- 2023-03: $110.81 per share

- 2023-04: $115.76 per share

- 2023-05: $108.45 per share

- 2023-06: $109.04 per share

- 2023-07: $112.68 per share

- 2023-08: $107.81 per share

- 2023-09: $111.41 per share

- 2023-10: $128.13 per share

- 2023-11: $137.87 per share

- 2023-12: $139.98 per share

- 2024-01: $155.25 per share

- 2024-02: $159.52 per share

- 2024-03: $173.01 per share

- 2024-04: $170.06 per share

- 2024-05: $167.52 per share

- 2024-06: $159.66 per share

- 2024-07: $171.12 per share

- 2024-08: $188.94 per share

- 2024-09: $189.65 per share

- 2024-10: $186.52 per share

- 2024-11: $207.39 per share

- 2024-12: $192.79 per share

- 2025-01: $192.33 per share

- 2025-02: $199.15 per share

- 2025-03: $207.07 per share

- 2025-04: $198.39 per share

- 2025-05: $209.87 per share

- 2025-06: $201.31 per share

- 2025-07: $203.25 per share

- 2025-08: $203.45 per share

- 2025-09: $214.65 per share

- 2025-10: $191.52 per share

- 2025-11: $212.98 per share

- 2025-12: $208.15 per share

- 2026-01: $198.99 per share

- 2026-02: $214.52 per share

- 2026-03: $207.34 per share

- 2026-04: $217.26 per share

- 2026-05: $206.09 per share

- 2026-06: $237.94 per share

- 2026-07: $264.08 per share

- 2026-08: $257.80 per share

- 2026-09: $221.86 per share

- 2026-10: $236.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $55.95 per share, central $69.94 per share, high $93.25 per share

- FY2017: low $58.22 per share, central $72.78 per share, high $97.04 per share

- FY2018: low $70.12 per share, central $87.66 per share, high $116.87 per share

- FY2019: low $109.28 per share, central $136.60 per share, high $182.14 per share

- FY2020: low $146.51 per share, central $183.13 per share, high $244.18 per share

- FY2021: low $115.12 per share, central $143.90 per share, high $191.86 per share

- FY2022: low $79.69 per share, central $99.61 per share, high $132.82 per share

- FY2023: low $85.50 per share, central $106.88 per share, high $142.50 per share

- FY2024: low $149.03 per share, central $186.29 per share, high $248.39 per share

- FY2025: low $290.08 per share, central $362.59 per share, high $483.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000031/all-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.