# Alstom (ALO.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALO.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:17.348Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 15.96 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 9.64 per share, central EUR 10.39 per share, high EUR 11.39 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 10.39 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:17.348Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.8%

- FY2018: 13.4%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 37.9%

- FY2021: 22.0%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 8.4%

- FY2024: 12.0%

- FY2025: 16.6%

- FY2026: 16.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 634M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR -540M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 17.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 55.3%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: EUR -270M

- FY2023: EUR 198M

- FY2024: EUR -87M

- FY2025: EUR 382M

- FY2026: EUR 411M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.4% vs 16.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.95 to 0.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.4%

- Market cap gain: EUR 8.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR -764M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -20.2%

- Per-share value change: EUR -1.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.95

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.32

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 10B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: EUR 1.95

- FY2018: EUR 1.06

- FY2019: EUR 3.59

- FY2020: EUR 1.91

- FY2021: EUR 0.66

- FY2022: EUR -1.53

- FY2023: EUR -0.31

- FY2024: EUR -0.70

- FY2025: EUR 0.32

- FY2026: EUR 0.70

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.75×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.2%

- FY2018: -0.8%

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -0.1%

- FY2021: 2.5%

- FY2022: 0.0%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: -2.4%

- FY2026: -1.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 49% since Nov 2021 · "Alstom forecasts softer cash flow after strong annual beat, shares fall" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.153Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-14: Alstom forecasts softer cash flow after strong annual beat, shares fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alstom-forecasts-higher-margin-reporting-053826122.html))

- 2025-07-04: Alstom wins 2 billion euro deal from New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alstom-wins-2-billion-euro-055446467.html))

- 2025-09-26: Alstom signs a rolling stock contract in Europe for around €475m ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alstom-signs-rolling-stock-contract-060000731.html))

- 2025-11-13: Alstom first-half sales and earnings rise, lifts growth outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alstom-first-half-sales-earnings-182544159.html))

- 2026-01-20: Alstom shares gain as Q3 revenue tops expectations; orders push backlog to €100bn ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alstom-shares-gain-q3-revenue-180850038.html))

- 2026-07-22: Alstom confirms full-year outlook as first-quarter sales rise on project execution ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alstom-confirms-full-outlook-first-173211887.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml; observed 2026-06-02.

- FY2017: EUR 7.3B 

- FY2018: EUR 7.3B 

- FY2019: EUR 8.1B 

- FY2020: EUR 8.2B 

- FY2021: EUR 8.8B 

- FY2022: EUR 15B 

- FY2023: EUR 17B 

- FY2024: EUR 18B 

- FY2025: EUR 18B 

- FY2026: EUR 19B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 11.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml; observed 2026-06-02.

- FY2017: 15.5% 

- FY2018: 16.6% 

- FY2019: 17.7% 

- FY2020: 17.8% 

- FY2021: 15.8% 

- FY2022: 11.1% 

- FY2023: 11.9% 

- FY2024: 12.6% 

- FY2025: 12.5% 

- FY2026: 11.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are EUR 19.2 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: revenue 19171000000; grossProfit 2174000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALO.PA: Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11.3% to 12.6% during 2024–26; it earns 14.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.5%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 11.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11802214018545935],[2018,0.1335536761608503],[2019,1.2028475752246501],[2020,0.37865738635596236],[2021,0.21990771259063943],[2022,0.03365177832919768],[2023,0.08379268782643633],[2024,0.12027010435850215],[2025,0.16576003086419752],[2026,0.16420310805926996]]; median 0.14887839211006013. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2017: growth capex 63000000; upkeep 157000000; owner earnings 223000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2825112107623318.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2018: growth capex 7599344.299739718; upkeep 285400655.7002603; owner earnings 198599344.29973972. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03826469984850639.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2019: growth capex 78185260.33088896; upkeep 196814739.66911104; owner earnings 387985260.330889. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20151605827553737.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 274000000; owner earnings 366800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 265000000; owner earnings 222800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 431000000; owner earnings 198000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 482000000; owner earnings 381800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 567000000; owner earnings 411200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); Dividend observations: [[2017,11000000],[2018,60000000],[2019,84000000],[2020,1240000000],[2021,6000000],[2022,45000000],[2023,43000000],[2024,61000000],[2025,24000000],[2026,38000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALO.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.9769999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 24.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11589600685948456. Price 15.96; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 14.16958490498096 → FY2026 0.8900105407376785. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-11: EUR 23.70 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 24.27 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 24.34 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 23.76 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 25.98 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 27.03 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 28.91 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 28.38 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 28.08 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 27.70 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 33.32 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 32.21 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 32.16 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 32.09 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 32.78 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 32.13 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 33.95 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 34.97 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 37.55 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 36.50 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 35.59 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 35.24 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 35.69 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 35.84 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 35.94 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 32.70 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 32.62 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 35.44 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 35.81 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 36.35 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 37.91 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 37.83 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 36.20 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 36.04 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 35.26 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 35.93 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 36.70 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 39.16 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 44.45 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 41.25 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 35.37 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 34.64 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 35.09 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 38.40 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 43.79 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 43.25 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 39.43 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 35.68 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 44.70 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 46.61 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 44.86 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 41.34 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 42.52 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 45.44 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 45.99 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 42.59 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 34.96 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 36.40 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 32.85 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 30.78 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 31.48 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 31.22 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 28.65 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 22.90 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 21.27 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 21.12 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 25.40 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 21.59 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 23.15 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 20.56 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 16.75 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 20.86 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 24.86 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 22.82 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 27.20 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 27.83 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 25.08 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 22.74 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 25.74 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 27.32 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 27.82 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 25.51 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 22.60 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 12.75 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 11.37 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 12.18 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 11.75 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 12.34 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 14.13 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 14.88 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 17.99 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 15.70 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 18.12 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 18.48 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 18.64 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 20.06 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 21.29 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 21.56 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 19.11 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 21.08 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 20.38 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 21.22 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 19.91 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 19.80 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 20.64 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 20.54 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 22.12 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 21.65 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 22.54 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 25.17 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 27.02 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 28.29 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 24.26 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 17.08 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 17.14 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 15.22 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 16.08 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 16.36 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 14.95 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 16.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2017: low EUR 33.66 per share, central EUR 36.59 per share, high EUR 40.50 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 11.98 per share, central EUR 13.13 per share, high EUR 14.65 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 49.39 per share, central EUR 52.46 per share, high EUR 56.56 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 24.61 per share, central EUR 26.86 per share, high EUR 29.87 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 10.73 per share, central EUR 11.81 per share, high EUR 13.25 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 13.46 per share, central EUR 15.13 per share, high EUR 17.36 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 12.47 per share, central EUR 14.02 per share, high EUR 16.08 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 7.29 per share, central EUR 8.91 per share, high EUR 10.17 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 9.83 per share, central EUR 11.32 per share, high EUR 12.54 per share

- FY2026: low EUR 9.65 per share, central EUR 10.40 per share, high EUR 11.40 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:00.864Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/96950032TUYMW11FB530/2026-03-31/ESEF/FR/0/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr/reports/Alstom-2026-03-31-1-fr.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.