# Alpek (ALPEKA.MX)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALPEKA.MX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: MXN. Reporting currency: MXN.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: MXN 15.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low MXN 6.50 per share, central MXN 6.87 per share, high MXN 7.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value MXN 6.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 13.3%). required return 13.3% a year (MX 10-year bond 9.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 0.47×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 6.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.3%

- FY2017: 10.1%

- FY2018: 11.7%

- FY2019: 10.1%

- FY2020: 7.7%

- FY2021: 19.4%

- FY2022: 21.6%

- FY2023: 6.0%

- FY2024: 6.8%

- FY2025: 3.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: MXN 13B

- Net income, five-year total: MXN 7.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.91×

- FY2022: 1.05×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: -1.50×

- FY2025: 0.28×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.3% vs 6.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.73 to -1.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: MXN -33B

- Cumulative retained earnings: MXN -920M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: MXN -3.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: MXN 1.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: MXN -1.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.57

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: MXN 5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: MXN 29B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: MXN 1.73

- FY2017: MXN -2.57

- FY2018: MXN 6.44

- FY2019: MXN 3.12

- FY2020: MXN 1.48

- FY2021: MXN 3.68

- FY2022: MXN 6.52

- FY2023: MXN -5.18

- FY2024: MXN -0.36

- FY2025: MXN -1.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.6%

- FY2017: -13.6%

- FY2018: 4.5%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -1.1%

- FY2023: -27.7%

- FY2024: -6.0%

- FY2025: -10.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 46% since Jan 2023 · sales -7.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.856Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: MXN 90B 

- FY2017: MXN 99B 

- FY2018: MXN 132B 

- FY2019: MXN 120B 

- FY2020: MXN 114B 

- FY2021: MXN 156B 

- FY2022: MXN 212B 

- FY2023: MXN 138B 

- FY2024: MXN 137B 

- FY2025: MXN 127B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 6.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 14.7% 

- FY2017: 10.5% 

- FY2018: 12.1% 

- FY2019: 10.9% 

- FY2020: 10.3% 

- FY2021: 15.8% 

- FY2022: 14.6% 

- FY2023: 7.5% 

- FY2024: 8.5% 

- FY2025: 6.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are MXN 126.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2025: revenue 126840000000; grossProfit 8057000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALPEKA.MX: ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.4% to 8.5% during 2023–25; it earns 10.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.11256949133580076],[2017,0.10105419869611755],[2018,0.11741660799501218],[2019,0.10068340446554873],[2020,0.07692501458012976],[2021,0.19437235727657604],[2022,0.21604925450359233],[2023,0.060476256069423875],[2024,0.06783202298155427],[2025,0.035389406175121596]]; median 0.10086880158083314. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back MXN 152 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 5981000000; owner earnings 38000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4416000000; owner earnings 2809000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1979000000; owner earnings 6282000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3123000000; owner earnings 6813400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2543000000; owner earnings 4464000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2021: growth capex 138000000; upkeep 4280000000; owner earnings 7034400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.019617877857386556.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3068000000; owner earnings 14472433721.658524. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2034000000; owner earnings 1147200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1959000000],[2017,2667000000],[2018,2778000000],[2019,2778000000],[2020,2713000000],[2021,3710000000],[2022,7443000000],[2023,6014845000],[2024,2537000000],[2025,667852000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 152000000 MXN.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALPEKA.MX SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:16.877Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2206901985494928. Price 15.95; FX 1; discount 0.13252; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (MXN per share)

- 2016-10: MXN 28.14 per share

- 2016-11: MXN 28.31 per share

- 2016-12: MXN 24.77 per share

- 2017-01: MXN 23.99 per share

- 2017-02: MXN 21.32 per share

- 2017-03: MXN 20.81 per share

- 2017-04: MXN 22.57 per share

- 2017-05: MXN 22.74 per share

- 2017-06: MXN 21.77 per share

- 2017-07: MXN 20.41 per share

- 2017-08: MXN 19.76 per share

- 2017-09: MXN 19.05 per share

- 2017-10: MXN 20.05 per share

- 2017-11: MXN 23.40 per share

- 2017-12: MXN 23.45 per share

- 2018-01: MXN 26.86 per share

- 2018-02: MXN 24.42 per share

- 2018-03: MXN 25.26 per share

- 2018-04: MXN 26.81 per share

- 2018-05: MXN 29.75 per share

- 2018-06: MXN 29.55 per share

- 2018-07: MXN 31.54 per share

- 2018-08: MXN 28.19 per share

- 2018-09: MXN 30.52 per share

- 2018-10: MXN 26.74 per share

- 2018-11: MXN 24.76 per share

- 2018-12: MXN 24.05 per share

- 2019-01: MXN 26.08 per share

- 2019-02: MXN 28.30 per share

- 2019-03: MXN 25.94 per share

- 2019-04: MXN 23.32 per share

- 2019-05: MXN 22.12 per share

- 2019-06: MXN 24.11 per share

- 2019-07: MXN 20.66 per share

- 2019-08: MXN 22.00 per share

- 2019-09: MXN 22.97 per share

- 2019-10: MXN 20.72 per share

- 2019-11: MXN 21.34 per share

- 2019-12: MXN 20.89 per share

- 2020-01: MXN 17.72 per share

- 2020-02: MXN 13.32 per share

- 2020-03: MXN 8.45 per share

- 2020-04: MXN 11.46 per share

- 2020-05: MXN 15.51 per share

- 2020-06: MXN 17.49 per share

- 2020-07: MXN 17.51 per share

- 2020-08: MXN 16.39 per share

- 2020-09: MXN 15.40 per share

- 2020-10: MXN 15.86 per share

- 2020-11: MXN 17.59 per share

- 2020-12: MXN 17.42 per share

- 2021-01: MXN 17.66 per share

- 2021-02: MXN 18.98 per share

- 2021-03: MXN 19.07 per share

- 2021-04: MXN 22.56 per share

- 2021-05: MXN 22.72 per share

- 2021-06: MXN 24.51 per share

- 2021-07: MXN 24.71 per share

- 2021-08: MXN 23.68 per share

- 2021-09: MXN 23.49 per share

- 2021-10: MXN 22.54 per share

- 2021-11: MXN 22.20 per share

- 2021-12: MXN 22.28 per share

- 2022-01: MXN 24.71 per share

- 2022-02: MXN 26.34 per share

- 2022-03: MXN 27.09 per share

- 2022-04: MXN 27.55 per share

- 2022-05: MXN 26.12 per share

- 2022-06: MXN 27.79 per share

- 2022-07: MXN 27.11 per share

- 2022-08: MXN 27.57 per share

- 2022-09: MXN 26.09 per share

- 2022-10: MXN 27.77 per share

- 2022-11: MXN 27.14 per share

- 2022-12: MXN 27.59 per share

- 2023-01: MXN 29.80 per share

- 2023-02: MXN 22.41 per share

- 2023-03: MXN 20.02 per share

- 2023-04: MXN 19.02 per share

- 2023-05: MXN 17.72 per share

- 2023-06: MXN 17.03 per share

- 2023-07: MXN 17.34 per share

- 2023-08: MXN 16.79 per share

- 2023-09: MXN 14.96 per share

- 2023-10: MXN 10.44 per share

- 2023-11: MXN 13.11 per share

- 2023-12: MXN 12.64 per share

- 2024-01: MXN 11.64 per share

- 2024-02: MXN 10.97 per share

- 2024-03: MXN 12.29 per share

- 2024-04: MXN 12.74 per share

- 2024-05: MXN 14.64 per share

- 2024-06: MXN 13.27 per share

- 2024-07: MXN 12.39 per share

- 2024-08: MXN 12.70 per share

- 2024-09: MXN 12.60 per share

- 2024-10: MXN 12.99 per share

- 2024-11: MXN 13.87 per share

- 2024-12: MXN 13.04 per share

- 2025-01: MXN 14.70 per share

- 2025-02: MXN 13.18 per share

- 2025-03: MXN 10.45 per share

- 2025-04: MXN 9.92 per share

- 2025-05: MXN 10.69 per share

- 2025-06: MXN 10.26 per share

- 2025-07: MXN 9.03 per share

- 2025-08: MXN 8.80 per share

- 2025-09: MXN 9.94 per share

- 2025-10: MXN 9.40 per share

- 2025-11: MXN 9.09 per share

- 2025-12: MXN 9.24 per share

- 2026-01: MXN 9.09 per share

- 2026-02: MXN 8.23 per share

- 2026-03: MXN 11.35 per share

- 2026-04: MXN 12.50 per share

- 2026-05: MXN 12.51 per share

- 2026-06: MXN 12.78 per share

- 2026-07: MXN 12.87 per share

- 2026-08: MXN 12.77 per share

- 2026-09: MXN 14.89 per share

- 2026-10: MXN 15.61 per share

## Annual estimated value (MXN per share)

- FY2016: low MXN 5.12 per share, central MXN 5.55 per share, high MXN 6.07 per share

- FY2017: low MXN 8.46 per share, central MXN 8.92 per share, high MXN 9.47 per share

- FY2018: low MXN 14.69 per share, central MXN 15.99 per share, high MXN 17.58 per share

- FY2019: low MXN 20.90 per share, central MXN 22.60 per share, high MXN 24.68 per share

- FY2020: low MXN 20.36 per share, central MXN 21.92 per share, high MXN 23.81 per share

- FY2021: low MXN 29.76 per share, central MXN 32.21 per share, high MXN 35.19 per share

- FY2022: low MXN 46.86 per share, central MXN 62.96 per share, high MXN 70.08 per share

- FY2023: low MXN 25.01 per share, central MXN 27.18 per share, high MXN 29.82 per share

- FY2024: low MXN 21.56 per share, central MXN 23.44 per share, high MXN 25.72 per share

- FY2025: low MXN 6.27 per share, central MXN 6.64 per share, high MXN 7.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.