# Autoliv (ALV.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ALV

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:26:25.714Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $115.96 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $88.76 per share, central $113.64 per share, high $132.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $113.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:26:25.714Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.9% at the stated quote. About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.09×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.9%

- FY2017: 18.6%

- FY2018: 21.2%

- FY2019: 20.5%

- FY2020: 10.4%

- FY2021: 19.9%

- FY2022: 18.1%

- FY2023: 20.3%

- FY2024: 27.4%

- FY2025: 26.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 28.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.82×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.70×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.2% vs 26.9%

- Per-share earnings: 4.87 to 8.03 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Market cap gain: -$1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.5%

- Per-share value change: $3.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.87

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.03

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90

- Average buyback yield: 3.7%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.42

- FY2017: $4.87

- FY2018: $2.18

- FY2019: $5.28

- FY2020: $2.14

- FY2021: $4.96

- FY2022: $4.85

- FY2023: $5.73

- FY2024: $8.03

- FY2025: $9.56

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.57×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.7%

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -6.0%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -3.8%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: -5.3%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years · "Direct material cost savings and organic sales growth supported the result." (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:17.199Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Swedish airbag maker Autoliv shifts tariff costs onto customers, confirms outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swedish-car-gear-maker-autolivs-101801808.html))

- 2025-10-17: Autoliv shares slip as cautious FY25 sales outlook overshadows Q3 beat ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4505173-autoliv-shares-slip-as-cautious-fy25-sales-outlook-overshadows-q3-beat?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-30: Autoliv beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; initiates FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4544725-autoliv-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-initiates-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-05: Autoliv Links China Venture With Cost Cuts And Shareholder Returns ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autoliv-links-china-venture-cost-021347351.html))

- 2026-04-19: ALV Q1 Deep Dive: China and India Outperformance Drives Growth Amid Margin Compression ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alv-q1-deep-dive-china-071745002.html))

- 2026-07-17: Autoliv Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Asia Growth and Cost Savings ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/autoliv-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-160800086.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $10B 

- FY2018: $8.7B 

- FY2019: $8.5B 

- FY2020: $7.4B 

- FY2021: $8.2B 

- FY2022: $8.8B 

- FY2023: $10B 

- FY2024: $10B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 16.2% 

- FY2017: 16.2% 

- FY2018: 19.7% 

- FY2019: 18.5% 

- FY2020: 16.7% 

- FY2021: 18.4% 

- FY2022: 15.8% 

- FY2023: 17.4% 

- FY2024: 18.5% 

- FY2025: 19.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 10.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 10815000000; grossProfit 2074000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALV.US: Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in the Americas, Europe, China, and Asia. The company offers passive safety systems, such as modules and components for frontal-impact airbag protection systems, side-impact airbag protection systems, pedestrian protection systems, steering wheels, inflator technologies, battery cut-off switches, and seatbelts. It also develops and manufactures mobility safety solutions, including passive safety systems for commercial vehicles; and safety solutions for riders of motorcycles and bikes. The company primarily serves car manufacturers. Autoliv, Inc. was founded in 1953 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.4% to 19.2% during 2023–25; it earns 20.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2292541434957],[2017,0.18568959787304753],[2018,0.21155762205247425],[2019,0.20481018508338977],[2020,0.10410901467505242],[2021,0.19876512596038645],[2022,0.18093857423698287],[2023,0.20291627876767196],[2024,0.27400583090379005],[2025,0.26861367832386995]]; median 0.20386323192553085. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 4.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 28.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 115600000; upkeep 383000000; owner earnings 567100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20384411920296244.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 48112091.2689141; upkeep 521487908.7310859; owner earnings 331412091.2689141. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14517301129449448.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 554800000; owner earnings 32700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 476100000; owner earnings 336400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 339600000; owner earnings 218400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 64000000; upkeep 394000000; owner earnings 435000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1471264367816092.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 144003255.91489214; upkeep 440996744.08510786; owner earnings 345003255.91489214. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41739680262732326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 195000000; upkeep 378000000; owner earnings 488000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.39959016393442626.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 579000000; owner earnings 454000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 34000000; upkeep 407000000; owner earnings 735000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04625850340136054.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.28921506360739574, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,202800000],[2017,208700000],[2018,214300000],[2019,217000000],[2020,54100000],[2021,165000000],[2022,224000000],[2023,225000000],[2024,219000000],[2025,238000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 351000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ALV.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.366 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04673261465029077. Price 115.96; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.6593490422105446 → FY2025 9.557867360208062. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $96.77 per share

- 2016-11: $103.45 per share

- 2016-12: $113.13 per share

- 2017-01: $115.64 per share

- 2017-02: $104.69 per share

- 2017-03: $102.25 per share

- 2017-04: $100.18 per share

- 2017-05: $110.90 per share

- 2017-06: $109.78 per share

- 2017-07: $108.37 per share

- 2017-08: $108.60 per share

- 2017-09: $123.58 per share

- 2017-10: $124.84 per share

- 2017-11: $127.90 per share

- 2017-12: $127.06 per share

- 2018-01: $152.19 per share

- 2018-02: $143.42 per share

- 2018-03: $145.92 per share

- 2018-04: $134.03 per share

- 2018-05: $147.95 per share

- 2018-06: $143.20 per share

- 2018-07: $102.46 per share

- 2018-08: $89.09 per share

- 2018-09: $86.68 per share

- 2018-10: $83.34 per share

- 2018-11: $85.91 per share

- 2018-12: $70.23 per share

- 2019-01: $79.85 per share

- 2019-02: $81.81 per share

- 2019-03: $73.53 per share

- 2019-04: $78.49 per share

- 2019-05: $61.57 per share

- 2019-06: $70.51 per share

- 2019-07: $72.15 per share

- 2019-08: $68.40 per share

- 2019-09: $78.88 per share

- 2019-10: $77.84 per share

- 2019-11: $81.72 per share

- 2019-12: $84.41 per share

- 2020-01: $76.63 per share

- 2020-02: $66.73 per share

- 2020-03: $46.01 per share

- 2020-04: $60.02 per share

- 2020-05: $63.58 per share

- 2020-06: $64.51 per share

- 2020-07: $65.03 per share

- 2020-08: $78.34 per share

- 2020-09: $72.88 per share

- 2020-10: $75.80 per share

- 2020-11: $89.05 per share

- 2020-12: $92.10 per share

- 2021-01: $88.71 per share

- 2021-02: $90.00 per share

- 2021-03: $92.80 per share

- 2021-04: $100.66 per share

- 2021-05: $106.03 per share

- 2021-06: $97.76 per share

- 2021-07: $100.88 per share

- 2021-08: $88.39 per share

- 2021-09: $85.72 per share

- 2021-10: $96.85 per share

- 2021-11: $96.39 per share

- 2021-12: $103.41 per share

- 2022-01: $99.04 per share

- 2022-02: $88.01 per share

- 2022-03: $76.44 per share

- 2022-04: $73.68 per share

- 2022-05: $80.08 per share

- 2022-06: $71.57 per share

- 2022-07: $86.00 per share

- 2022-08: $77.79 per share

- 2022-09: $66.63 per share

- 2022-10: $80.35 per share

- 2022-11: $88.40 per share

- 2022-12: $76.58 per share

- 2023-01: $92.12 per share

- 2023-02: $92.58 per share

- 2023-03: $93.36 per share

- 2023-04: $85.81 per share

- 2023-05: $81.50 per share

- 2023-06: $85.04 per share

- 2023-07: $100.93 per share

- 2023-08: $97.60 per share

- 2023-09: $96.48 per share

- 2023-10: $91.65 per share

- 2023-11: $103.62 per share

- 2023-12: $110.19 per share

- 2024-01: $107.12 per share

- 2024-02: $116.03 per share

- 2024-03: $120.43 per share

- 2024-04: $119.79 per share

- 2024-05: $127.57 per share

- 2024-06: $106.99 per share

- 2024-07: $101.14 per share

- 2024-08: $102.47 per share

- 2024-09: $93.37 per share

- 2024-10: $92.88 per share

- 2024-11: $99.12 per share

- 2024-12: $93.79 per share

- 2025-01: $96.66 per share

- 2025-02: $97.35 per share

- 2025-03: $88.45 per share

- 2025-04: $93.23 per share

- 2025-05: $102.82 per share

- 2025-06: $111.90 per share

- 2025-07: $111.55 per share

- 2025-08: $124.07 per share

- 2025-09: $123.50 per share

- 2025-10: $116.80 per share

- 2025-11: $117.99 per share

- 2025-12: $118.70 per share

- 2026-01: $121.24 per share

- 2026-02: $118.52 per share

- 2026-03: $105.16 per share

- 2026-04: $115.93 per share

- 2026-05: $127.12 per share

- 2026-06: $116.17 per share

- 2026-07: $123.17 per share

- 2026-08: $121.21 per share

- 2026-09: $111.89 per share

- 2026-10: $115.96 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $77.50 per share, central $93.65 per share, high $107.35 per share

- FY2017: low $62.30 per share, central $69.71 per share, high $79.57 per share

- FY2018: low $43.73 per share, central $49.06 per share, high $56.16 per share

- FY2019: low $41.17 per share, central $46.42 per share, high $53.40 per share

- FY2020: low $41.46 per share, central $45.55 per share, high $51.00 per share

- FY2021: low $41.91 per share, central $46.43 per share, high $52.44 per share

- FY2022: low $48.03 per share, central $53.99 per share, high $61.93 per share

- FY2023: low $57.57 per share, central $66.64 per share, high $76.94 per share

- FY2024: low $70.87 per share, central $90.69 per share, high $105.74 per share

- FY2025: low $85.59 per share, central $108.72 per share, high $126.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1034670/000119312526058162/alv-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.